00:00 Let's talk more about Ukraine and certainly this 500 days which is being marked today
00:06 since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began.
00:08 We can speak to Peter Yelmev, he's director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative.
00:14 Peter, thanks very much for speaking to France 24 today.
00:17 I mean, 500 days since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began,
00:21 key forces are advancing slowly, ammunition and arms it appears are scarce.
00:27 Could Ukraine turn this around in your view?
00:30 Well, yes, I think in your question you mentioned a very important issue
00:37 and that is contrary to what the Western politicians have said,
00:42 that Ukraine has got everything that it needs for a successful counter-offensive.
00:47 Just leaving aside the issue that Russia maintains an overwhelming superiority in the air,
00:55 we're not even talking about this, we understand F-16s are coming,
00:58 but when they're coming we don't know yet.
01:00 But even conventional land-based weapons and weapon systems,
01:06 according to some calculation, Ukraine has gotten no more than 50 percent
01:10 of what Western countries have promised to deliver.
01:13 A lot of what has been delivered is faulty, needs maintenance, is not functional.
01:19 So that is an important thing to understand.
01:22 Let's stay with this idea of supremacy.
01:25 You touched on air supremacy, which clearly Ukraine doesn't have.
01:28 There are political analysts, Peter, who say this counter-offensive by Ukraine
01:33 perhaps shouldn't have been started without air power and more arms.
01:37 Is that a view that you share?
01:39 Well, it's one of those hypotheticals.
01:44 Not that the counter-offensive has started as a Ukrainian,
01:47 I need to support it and we need to maintain a realistic,
01:51 but at the same time optimistic outlook.
01:54 It started when it started.
01:56 And despite all the factors working against Ukrainian success
02:02 in this counter-offensive, Ukraine is still showing progress.
02:05 And yes, it has been slow.
02:07 Yes, we would like to see a repeat of Kherson,
02:12 or the Kharkiv offensive, when Ukraine was able to basically gallop
02:17 at a very fast pace and kick out the Russians there.
02:21 It's not going to happen this time.
02:22 But with all these things that we mentioned,
02:25 Ukraine still maintains the initiative.
02:27 And it is very close, as a matter of fact, capturing Bakhmut.
02:32 Once again, the city that was never strategically important for Russia,
02:36 neither is it strategically important for Ukraine.
02:38 Its symbolism, its importance is precisely its symbolism.
02:43 For Russians to have fought so hard and lost 20,000 soldiers, by some estimates,
02:48 many of them from the Wagner Group, and to have lost it again,
02:52 I think will be a terrible blow to Russians' self-esteem
02:55 and to their fighting morale.
02:58 In the meantime, you will have seen President Zelensky wrapping up
03:01 a visit of several countries on Friday, notably ending in Turkey.
03:07 I mean, the symbolism is there.
03:09 Turkey is key in this in terms of being a player,
03:12 whether it's negotiations.
03:13 We know that Turkey has given Ukraine arms in the past.
03:17 How important do you think that these calls by President Zelensky,
03:23 for a wake-up call, you might say,
03:26 how important are his calls to Western countries in all of this?
03:32 Very important.
03:33 And Erdogan, as you know, has played a very intricate, balancing game.
03:39 It's one of the countries that maintains close relations with both sides.
03:42 It's supplying Ukraine with sophisticated weapons,
03:45 such as the Baryaktar drones.
03:46 And at the same time, it's negotiating this great export agreement with Russia.
03:57 Obviously, Erdogan is very close to Vladimir Putin.
04:01 So this is a unique role.
04:02 To have heard this from Turkey, that it supports Ukraine's territorial integrity,
04:06 we've heard that before, but now it is unequivocally supporting Ukraine's NATO membership,
04:12 it's very important, mind you.
04:13 It takes just one vote by one member state to kiss your membership dreams goodbye.
04:23 OK.
04:24 All right, Peter Zelensky, we'd like to talk with you more.
04:28 Peter, I'm afraid we are running out of time.
04:30 I'm afraid we would have liked to stay with you more.
04:32 You're the director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative.
04:36 Thanks very much for speaking to us today, Peter.
04:37 Thank you.
04:38 (laughs)
