00:00 Let's get some analysis and bring in Sean McPhaid, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council
00:03 and author of The New Rules of War.
00:06 Sean, thank you for being with us.
00:07 Whatever it takes, we will not waver the words of Biden.
00:10 Can you put some substance on these words from the US President for us, please?
00:15 Well Biden has been committed to Ukraine's cause for some time.
00:19 I think that it's twofold.
00:22 One is that he wants to turn, the US in my opinion, wants to turn Ukraine into the Afghan
00:29 war that the Soviets had to face and to dry Russia and bleed them dry rather than to help
00:37 Ukraine win.
00:39 And also the latter half of his speech was littered with political dog whistles in anticipation
00:45 of 2024 presidential bid.
00:48 And we know that also because that's when the room kind of went silent during his speech.
00:54 Sean, will Zelensky be travelling back to Kiev feeling that he's done a good job in
00:58 Vilnius?
00:59 Of course, it was only 24 hours ago.
01:01 He was talking about the absurdity of NATO not having a timeline for membership.
01:06 It was frankly overreach on Zelensky's part to expect that NATO would seriously consider
01:12 having Ukraine join NATO immediately.
01:16 Because under NATO Article 5, the sort of three musketeers rule that an attack on one
01:22 is an attack at all.
01:23 Well, that would commit NATO to an immediate war with Russia, which could go nuclear within
01:28 hours.
01:29 So NATO was never going to take that seriously.
01:32 However, he got a commitment and a pathway to join NATO that was shortened, conditional
01:39 on the war being over.
01:41 And the G7 countries, the top economies in Europe, have all committed a great deal more
01:48 arms, money, training, et cetera, commitment.
01:52 So I think Ukraine actually comes away with a victory.
01:57 How about NATO, though, if you take it country by country?
02:00 Is there true unity there, Sean?
02:02 We hear some words of discord.
02:03 I'm thinking of remarks made just recently by the UK's defence minister who thinks Zelensky
02:08 should show more gratitude, words perhaps Ben Wallace won't be able to live to regret
02:12 saying.
02:13 Well, it's funny.
02:14 I think the official from Great Britain said we are not Amazon.
02:20 And I think that there is a lot of donor fatigue, frankly, under the veneer of this unified
02:26 31 country body.
02:28 Because remember, for the past year, Zelensky has been demanding more money, more equipment,
02:35 Patriot missiles, tanks, F-16s, with the promise that they would have a decisive victory in
02:42 the spring offensive.
02:44 Spring came, there was no offensive.
02:46 Now it's summer offensive, and they're frankly failing.
02:50 So that there is a lot of discord under the TV photo op between members and alliance strength.
02:57 Indeed, it all seems very blocked on the Eastern Front, doesn't it?
03:02 Fresh weapons, though, have been pledged.
03:04 France pledging longer distance missiles, the F-16 coalition to train fighter pilots
03:11 to use that flying hardware.
03:14 Is this going to be something that perhaps changes the whole nature of the war from now
03:18 on?
03:19 It won't.
03:20 I mean, this is the problem that people think if you give more and better weapons, it'll
03:24 somehow win.
03:25 But let's not forget the last 70 years is a military history of countries who've won
03:31 battles but lost wars.
03:34 So the idea that F-16s or cluster munitions, very controversial, somehow turn the tide
03:40 of this war is sort of World War I thinking.
03:43 It's like Verdun or the Somme at this point, or Stalingrad.
03:47 And what we need to see, I think, is more strategic cunning rather than more battlefield
03:52 technology.
03:53 Indeed, that parallel you draw with the First World War, it reminds me of a conversation
03:58 I had with a colonel who'd left the front of Batmobile.
04:00 He showed me images from his mobile phone, which we couldn't print.
04:03 They were so horrific.
04:04 And it was just reminiscent of the type of stuff that you would have seen in history
04:08 lessons.
04:09 You'd have seen it.
04:10 I've seen it.
04:11 About the First World War, that kind of issue.
04:12 Are you saying that basically this kind of frozen scenario that Zelensky says he won't
04:17 accept is actually something that perhaps he can't change?
04:21 Well, that's true.
04:23 And it's somewhat of Ukraine's own choosing.
04:26 Six to seven months ago, they decided to commit in Bakhmut, a city in the eastern Ukraine,
04:34 into a war of attrition with Russia.
04:37 And it's a war they frankly cannot win.
04:39 Because even if one Ukrainian soldier kills 10 Russian soldiers or mercenaries, Russia
04:46 still has 20 times that much more in reserve.
04:49 And Putin doesn't care about human life.
04:52 So I think they've chosen a pathway in this war that has sort of made it frozen.
05:00 I think, for example, a much more devious strategy is try, as I've been saying this
05:06 for months now, try to pit the Wagner Group against the Russian military so they sort
05:11 of cancel each other out.
05:14 But instead, they've taken on this World War One, both sides have taken on this World War
05:18 One approach to this war, which is frankly, it's a century old.
05:22 Indeed, that expression, the meat grinder, which is a pretty horrific way to put it.
05:27 But sadly, it sums up what's been happening at that Bakhmut front.
05:31 Shaun Muffet, thank you very much indeed for sharing your analysis with us here on France
05:34 24.
05:35 We appreciate your time, sir.
05:36 - Indeed. - Yeah.
05:37 [BLANK_AUDIO]
