00:00 Recently the Fed announced much better than expected quarterly results with regards to
00:04 both inflation rates and GDP.
00:07 And with that data they also announced they no longer expect a recession.
00:10 But economists at financial advisory organization Vanguard aren't convinced we're out of the
00:14 woods just yet.
00:16 Their top economist Joe Davis recently told hosts on Bloomberg's What Goes Up podcast,
00:21 most banks are expecting high job losses over the course of the next year, saying that in
00:25 just the next 12 months, unemployment is expected to rise over 4%.
00:30 Currently unemployment sits at around 3.6%.
00:33 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Davis says this is a direct result of the
00:37 recent interest rate hikes, which will now affect the labor market.
00:41 Job losses are expected to suppress wage growth, something that will help inflation fall to
00:45 its historic 2% target.
00:47 The US is currently at an inflation rate of 2.97%, a far cry from last year's historic
00:53 highs of around 9.06%.
00:55 Davis adds that while most metrics show an avoidance of a recession proper, these future
01:00 job losses indicate a small one nonetheless, telling Bloomberg, quote, semantically they're
01:04 on record saying no recession.
01:06 But by that metric, it actually is a recession because you have very modest job losses.
01:12 (upbeat music)
