00:00 A military coup in Niger last week has raised fears that the West African nation, a key
00:05 Western ally in the fight against jihadist groups in the region, could pivot towards
00:10 Russia.
00:11 The ousting of democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum has been widely condemned by
00:16 the European Union, the US and from within Africa.
00:20 Jean-Hervé Gessikel at the International Crisis Group says while Niger is central to
00:24 Western security efforts in the region, it's too early to say if it might turn to Russia
00:29 or the Wagner Group.
00:31 We know that Wagner is interested in developing its capacity in West Africa.
00:40 We anticipate also that within the new military regime, if they were to stay in power, they
00:50 will look for different allies and they might be tempted to establish a closer relationship
00:54 with Russia.
00:57 It's a possibility that there is a change in alliance and that Russia might develop
01:02 its capacity for Wagner in the region.
01:05 But right now it's also a red flag that is very convenient to use in order to be in a
01:10 stronger position when you negotiate.
01:14 There are also concerns about the coup's potential impact on the import of uranium to power Europe's
01:19 nuclear plants.
01:24 As the world's seventh largest producer of the chemical element, it supplies the EU with
01:29 almost 25% of its reserves and France about 10%.
01:35 But Gessikel says the impact is not critical.
01:40 France used to be much more dependent on uranium in the past than it is today.
01:47 There has been a diversification of access to uranium in the world, including Canada,
01:56 including also Kazakhstan.
01:59 So it's a different market than it was 20 or 30 years ago.
02:05 So it's still an important interest, but it's not central.
02:08 It's not vital to France as it used to be.
02:15 And he says it's far from clear yet whether the military will stay in power.
02:24 There is still a possibility for President Bassoum to come back.
02:28 It will be extremely difficult.
02:30 This is not the most likely scenario, but this is still the scenario on which many actors
02:36 are working on.
02:39 Many actors in the international community.
02:41 And as a matter of fact, even Russia is encouraging, is pushing for the return of the elected president.
02:47 But if this external pressure does not connect with an internal pressure, I'm afraid it won't
02:55 work.
02:56 [SWOOSH]
