00:00 - Rogie, how do you not be too early?
00:02 And that's the issue here is, you know,
00:04 we've got stocks in the last couple of days
00:07 and a little bit of a free fall here.
00:08 I mean, Amazon's down 10 bucks in two days.
00:11 So this is a serious sell-off.
00:13 And then you obviously have got another other stocks
00:15 that are down too.
00:16 Microsoft, a terrible day yesterday.
00:18 Key reversal, stock goes down, you know,
00:20 12 bucks in 24 hour period here.
00:23 How do you not be too early?
00:24 Or do you just, you know, buy and you take some heat
00:27 and you know, eventually we're gonna pop back up.
00:30 That's my concern is I'm kind of with you.
00:32 I think eventually there's gonna be
00:33 a great buying opportunity here.
00:35 Timing that, sometimes really difficult.
00:38 - You're so right because I love that you said too early
00:41 because too early is the same as wrong, right?
00:44 We like to talk about early and late.
00:45 So how do we make sure we're not on the wrong side of this?
00:47 So I'm gonna look for two things.
00:49 Number one, if I'm gonna buy anything on sale,
00:51 it's got to be above the 200 period.
00:54 It's got to be.
00:55 Because that sentiment shift along the equator,
00:57 you know, if you think about the most common types of scans
01:00 and as much as we wanna complicate technical analysis
01:05 and charting, and I've probably been guilty of that too
01:08 over the last 35 years, but at the end of the day,
01:10 there are some really basic places
01:13 that I look at on a chart.
01:14 Am I above or below the year's point of control?
01:17 Am I above or below that 200?
01:18 I prefer the exponential, nice recency bias
01:21 built into that math.
01:24 I will not buy stuff just 'cause it's cheap.
01:26 So how do I prevent being too early?
01:29 I can't start buying until early October.
01:31 And how do I prevent being sort of too early and wrong?
01:34 I can't buy stuff below the 200.
01:36 And that served me.
01:38 And then I remember, look, when people say,
01:40 oh, the market's rigged.
01:40 Yeah, it's rigged to the long side.
01:42 And you're exactly right.
01:43 If we start to see that meltdown,
01:46 right now when I look at Fed Fund Futures,
01:47 I know everyone can look at that right here, CME FedWatch,
01:51 we're not even seeing a 50/50 shot
01:53 at a rate cut until July, which is bonkers.
01:56 It was closer to March, May, not but six to eight weeks ago.
02:00 We're gonna see the Fed Fund Futures
02:01 start to put the screws to Jerome Powell and say,
02:04 look, this is what we're expecting.
02:06 And this is how we're communicating it to you.
02:08 You gotta cut sooner.
02:09 We get you're not gonna cut in 2023.
02:12 That was never really a probability,
02:15 but now you've moved it out to July and we're ticked off
02:19 and we're gonna let you know.
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