00:00 We're in the company of Robert Parsons here in the studio in Paris, joining us from Uppsala
00:03 in Sweden, Ruzbej Parsi, head of the Middle East Program at the Swedish Institute of International
00:09 Affairs.
00:10 Thanks for joining us.
00:12 Thanks for having me.
00:13 What can we piece together from public pronouncements and the like regarding an eventual role by
00:19 Iran?
00:20 Well, I would be somewhat skeptical to the Wall Street Journal report.
00:25 I think obviously Iran has, as you mentioned, the documented longstanding support for Hamas.
00:31 The relationship has gone up and down over time, but it's definitely there and that support
00:36 exists.
00:37 But that does not directly mean that there is an operational control or influence as
00:44 to what Hamas does at any given point in time.
00:47 So I think in this case, I would like to see something more concrete and tangible before
00:52 I would believe that that connection exists.
00:54 Of course, there's another possibility, which is that they supported them actively, but
01:01 it succeeded perhaps too much for Tehran's tastes.
01:06 After all, what we're now going to see is a long war ahead.
01:11 Absolutely.
01:12 And I mean, in any case, it is clear that most often the Iranians are interested in
01:17 fomenting what they can foment against Israel and vice versa.
01:22 But they do not want to become a direct party to that kind of conflict because it would
01:26 inflict too much cost on them.
01:29 So in that sense, at the moment they are, if you will, at their sweet spot.
01:33 There is a conflagration.
01:34 It is very bloody.
01:36 Israel is hurting, and that is to Iran's advantage.
01:40 But they don't necessarily want this to escalate any further because then there is the risk
01:43 that they would be dragged indirectly.
01:45 Roozbeh Parsi, it's not happening in a vacuum.
01:48 Obviously there was these backchannel talks, some of them perhaps direct between the U.S.
01:53 and Iran regarding the unfreezing of Iranian oil money.
02:00 Now, what happens next?
02:02 What with a U.S. aircraft carrier en route to the region, the price of oil that's been
02:10 spiking since Saturday?
02:12 Well, I think obviously those kind of conversations are much more difficult to have.
02:18 They weren't easy to have to begin with, both because of how they were done, as in where
02:22 they stood, but also because politically it was controversial, both in Washington and
02:27 in Tehran.
02:28 So in that sense, I think those are probably going to be on hold, especially if there is
02:33 any inkling that Iran was more directly involved, because that would basically kill those conversations
02:38 as far as the Americans are concerned.
02:40 But I think it's also important to remember that what is happening right now isn't something
02:44 that Iran, even if they wanted to, could have instigated on their own.
02:47 I mean, in the end, this is about the occupation and that is the main reason why Hamas exists.
02:52 So in that sense, they have a lot of agency in what they do and don't do.
02:58 Robert Parsons?
02:59 Yeah, I mean, that makes absolute sense to me, except that clearly Iran over the years
03:04 has been providing weaponry to Hamas and others.
03:10 But to suggest that Iran is directly involved seems to me at this stage without stronger
03:15 evidence a little bit far-fetched, Israel denying it.
03:21 Possibly Iran is interested in destabilising the gradual process of normalisation and relations
03:28 between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but not at all clear that it would achieve that through
03:35 these methods unless Israel, and this is the dilemma Israel faces now of course, decides
03:40 to take really strong measures against Hamas in Gaza.
03:44 If Israel decides to start a ground offensive against Gaza, all bets are off about what
03:51 could happen next.
03:53 It would certainly risk antagonising the entire Arab world.
03:57 So I would question whether at this stage Israel is prepared to go that far.
04:01 Does this Roozbeh Parsi put on hold or scuttle completely that strategy that's been put forth
04:09 by Washington under both Donald Trump and Joe Biden of warming relations with neighbouring
04:15 states, particularly Saudi Arabia at this point?
04:19 Well, as was mentioned just now, I think it has a lot to do with exactly how the Israelis
04:24 are going to exact their retribution.
04:27 If it becomes much bloodier than it already is, and if there is a ground offensive, then
04:32 the question is how will that sway Arab opinion?
04:35 And even though Saudi Arabia and Mohammed bin Salman can do as he wants, more or less,
04:39 he has to take those things into account.
04:41 And the fact that part of his own political elite isn't necessarily very enthusiastic
04:45 about getting closer to Israel.
04:49 So in that sense, I think that conversation that the Biden administration has been pursuing
04:54 with Israel and Saudi Arabia is probably also in danger, though it is not totally derailed.
04:59 But for now, at least, I think it would be very difficult to sell that to the public.
05:04 There's one player in this that we haven't brought up yet, and that is the other big
05:08 benefactor of Hamas, Qatar.
05:11 What role for Qatar in the buildup and what role going forward?
05:16 Well, Qatar is not the same kind of player as Iran is.
05:21 Qatar is not involved in anything that remotely looks military.
05:25 They have been trying to build their diplomatic prestige and their diplomatic ability in the
05:29 last couple of years.
05:31 So they have definitely connections to Hamas, but I don't see them as being in any way invested
05:36 or interested in what is happening.
05:38 Of course, they have been more critical of Israel, and they've also said that this is
05:42 at least partly, if not wholly, Israeli responsibility because of the occupation.
05:48 But they are definitely not interested in that this conflict is in any way deepened
05:53 for the simple reason that their primary ally in the long run is the United States.
05:57 And that would put them in a conflicting course with them.
06:00 Roozbeh Parsi, before we let you go, there's of course a domestic politics angle for this
06:05 for Iranians.
06:06 Sunday evening, Tehran's Azadi Stadium, there's a match between Persepolis and Golgahar where
06:12 one side brandishes a Palestinian flag and the other tells them to shove their flag you
06:20 know where.
06:23 What's your reaction to that video that's gone viral?
06:26 Well, I mean, you have to, as you said, this is domestic politics.
06:31 The Palestinian issue is relevant for some people in Iran, but for a lot of people it
06:36 is nowadays primarily associated with the way the Iranian government pursues its foreign
06:41 policy and as many think neglects its own population.
06:46 So it's not necessarily that much about the Palestinians as much as people are basically
06:50 fed up with this revolutionary rhetoric of Iran basically helping people all over the
06:54 place but not doing much for the country itself.
06:58 Roozbeh Parsi, many thanks for joining us from Uppsala, Sweden.
