00:00 A significant Russian attack on Avdiivka is not local efforts intended solely to fix Ukrainian
00:07 forces. The Institute for the Study of War has revised its earlier assessment, adding
00:15 that the think tank is not ready to state the exact objectives and likely outcome of
00:20 Russian efforts there. Russian forces likely launched a significant and ongoing offensive
00:26 effort around Avdiivka in the region of Donetsk since the 10th of October. The Institute for
00:33 the Study of War observed them simultaneously attacking northwest, also west and south of
00:43 Avdiivka using armoured assault groups, rotary wing aircraft and concentrated artillery.
00:51 Avdiivka's city military administration head Vitaly Barabash indicated that Russian forces
00:55 are carrying out assaults with air support in 10 to 12 directions around the settlement.
01:02 The Institute for the Study of War states Russian forces have not secured any major
01:08 breakthroughs near Avdiivka as of the 12th of October and are unlikely to immediately
01:13 cut off Ukrainian forces in the city. Ukrainian military observers framed Russian offensive
01:19 operations against Avdiivka as "major attack" and noted that Russian forces used an unusually
01:25 high number of armoured vehicles in combat. Geolocated footage indicates that Russian
01:30 forces have likely lost at least a battalion tactical group's worth of armoured vehicles
01:35 in offensive operations around Avdiivka. The Institute for the Study of War admits that
01:41 its previous assessment was likely overstated and Russian forces may not be applying the
01:46 lessons learned from the previous offensive operations near Vuhlydar in February 2023
01:52 or around Kiev in March 2022 when Ukrainian forces destroyed a disorderly advancing column
01:58 of Russian armoured vehicles.
02:00 (whooshing)
