00:00 The most prominent file for all assets is the central bank file, specifically for the federal.
00:06 During the past period, we have seen that there is a difference between what the market prices and what the federal prices.
00:13 Today, even the investment banks, among them, are also different in their direction, where will the federal go next year?
00:21 When will the low start? What is the size of the low? And where will the bottom be in terms of interest rates?
00:27 If we look at Morgan Stanley's latest forecasts, he sees that the first low for interest rates will be in June, at 25 points.
00:36 The second will be in September, and there will be a low for each meeting starting from the fourth quarter of the next year, at 25 points.
00:45 He sees that interest will reach 2.3 or 2.4% by the end of 2025.
00:53 But Goldman Sachs has a completely different vision. He sees that the low will be late, it will be from the fourth quarter of 2024.
01:03 Therefore, he is opposed to what Morgan Stanley was talking about and even what the market sees, because the market is rising,
01:09 that it is the beginning of a meeting in May, and the next federal will start the low interest rate.
01:14 He sees a low of 1% in each period, that is, every three months, until the middle of 2026.
01:21 He sees that the low for interest rates will be between 3.7 or 3.7%.
01:28 The interesting thing today is not only the difference between the forecasts in general,
01:33 but notice that Morgan Stanley sees that the low interest rate is at 3.4% and 2.4%, while Goldman Sachs sees it at 3.4%.
01:43 Goldman Sachs sees a more severe forecast than the federal, and sees that the interest rate will be higher than what the market sees or even than what Morgan Stanley sees.
01:52 If we look at the market forecasts, we notice that despite all the statements we have heard,
01:58 whether from the speakers in the name of the federal or even from Jerome Powell,
02:02 the market still insists on the idea that there will be a low interest rate starting from the May meeting in 2024,
02:09 and the possibility of that is about 33%.
02:13 The market is still not convinced of what the federal says.
02:16 We have seen during the past period that economic data began to have a greater impact on the minds of investors.
02:24 At this stage, in light of this difference between what the federal sees and what the market sees,
02:30 economic data will have a greater impact on stocks, bonds and even the US dollar.
02:37 Who will be right? Will it be the federal and what it says or the investors' forecasts?
02:43 Economic data will determine that.
