00:00 If we look at the performance between the EGX 30 and 70, we will find that the 30, over the past period, was the highest performance and the best performance compared to the 70,
00:13 although the 70 also rose, it made a very strong rise and exceeded 4000, so it also rose, but both indicators, as we know, they all compensate for the big difference in currency that happened in the last two months.
00:29 The EGP was reduced by about 40% or 45% compared to other currencies, so all this helped the stocks in the market to rise significantly.
00:43 Of course, the stocks that the leading layer prevails over are the ones that always start the strong rise, and that's why, as I said, the 30 was the best.
00:53 Maybe yesterday, with the negative candle that happened in the International Trade Bank, which we call the "shooting star", after it got closer to the 77, and began to decline and gain profits,
01:04 it affected the indicator and made it, after it exceeded 25,000 points for the first time, to decline again and close on a decline.
01:13 Today, the situation in the EGX 30 was fluctuating between the rise and the decline, we saw the indicator more than once, actually, it changes from red to green, then red, then green, until it closed at a slight rise.
01:27 The EGX 70, despite the indicators or the signs, the determination that appeared on it, it shows weakness relatively, but it is still continuing, it is still rising, and it is still a positive performance.
01:39 But of course, to be agreed upon, if Ghani gains profits in the EGX 30 or in the leading shares, and the negative candle that is present, then of course, this will affect the EGX 70,
01:50 which I have no doubt about, and it will also pay for the entry into the Ghani 4 process.
01:53 But let's agree that both the indicators and most of the shares in the market, or almost all the shares, the rise that occurred in it is just a compensation for the big difference in the currency,
02:03 and it is enough for me to look at the dollar stocks, or the dollar stocks, to see the clear downward direction in it, and compare it with the EGX stocks, and see that both are moving as if they were completely different markets.
02:17 The downward direction of the stocks is clear, and the upward direction of the stocks is clear, so this means that the rise that is occurring is not an expression of any economic expectations of any kind, or any improvement of any kind, but only an expression of the weakness that is present in the value of the currency.
02:34 What do you think of the performance of the fitness prime shares? Yesterday, they rose by 70%, today they rose by almost 9%. This sector is considered to a large extent a new sector for the Egyptian stock market.
02:50 What do you expect from this proposal and the performance of the fitness prime shares?
02:55 As you said, the process or the liquidity moves from sector to sector, or from share to share. It is true that the volumes are now 5.5 billion, and even when we started to see the 3 billion, we started to say that the market has not done the calculations, that the market is reluctant to do the calculations.
03:17 But all the sectors, I do not think that any sector has not been affected positively by the decrease in the value of the currency.
03:26 Imagine when a share is 2 pounds, and then the currency decreases by half its value. What will happen to it? It will have to rise and reach 4 pounds.
03:38 The whole idea is in the timing or the time it takes to reach this level. There are shares that have reached this high level of maturity, there are very few sessions due to the limited fluctuations and the number of small shares.
03:55 There are also other leading shares that take time. For example, the International Trade Bank, the share started to rise only two or three weeks ago, but before that it was moving on a regular basis.
04:06 At the time, there were other shares, especially the small and medium-sized, which made 70% and 80%. And of course, the highest performance is the inflationary shares, which we call the "oil-exhaust" shares.
04:19 Let me ask you, Mr. Ehab, today, an Egyptian investor wants to avoid the continuous withdrawal of Egyptian pounds. Is it better to invest in gold?
04:36 Because gold has a record level of gold, which is 22,080 pounds. Is it better to invest in gold or to buy shares?
04:48 I can't say that gold is a good investment. Gold is not safe only for inflation. But I can't say that gold is a good investment, especially since it is related to global prices.
05:03 With the decrease in global inflation, we may see a return to the pressure on gold, and it will not be able to continue in its direction.
05:15 So I can't say that gold is an adventure in the current price levels, even after the highs you mentioned.
05:21 But I can say that you have other shares in the stock market, many shares, which have not yet reached the sufficient compensation for the value of the currency.
05:31 The other thing is that the real estate sector needs high liquidity, given the high prices it has experienced.
05:43 But, with great confidence, the real estate sector, even in the real economy, has not achieved the same rate of rise or the same rate of increase in the prices of raw materials.
05:54 The prices of the wet units, for example, have not reached the same level as the price of iron, cement, and the big surge in the price of raw materials due to the decrease in the value of the currency.
06:10 When can we see a return to this gap, Mr. Ehab?
06:14 The government should take care of this issue.
06:19 I was asking a few days ago on another program on another channel about the role of the central government.
06:28 The central government does not only need to have a dollar balance to support the currency.
06:36 The central government can also increase the interest rate to a certain amount, and thus attract people to buy the currency.
06:46 What does it mean to increase the interest rate by 19% and the dollar by 50%?
06:54 And what about the real interest rate?
06:57 We are talking about real rates that are 16% negative.
07:01 This is a very strange thing.
07:06 I am waiting for the presidential elections to end.
07:16 I am 36 years old and I am here on the same channel.
07:21 The policy of returning to the currency after the elections is very dangerous.
07:26 The continuation of the return to the currency in important economic decisions is a big problem and will be expensive.
07:32 Today, we are in the 52.51 dollars.
07:36 The government still says that this is a temporary crisis.
07:39 We hear that this is a temporary crisis for 25 pounds.
07:42 Nothing is taken.
07:44 I need to understand why the central bank is watching this.
07:47 This is very strange.
07:49 We have never seen a monetary policy be so weak.
07:53 It is not important to have a dollar.
07:56 The fact that the central bank is not moving means that the review of the IMF is not going to be held.
08:04 There will be no clear position from the IMF towards Egypt unless it sees a clear direction from the central bank.
08:13 The IMF is asking for a compensation for the Junaid.
08:17 This compensation is coming.
08:23 We understand that there will be a new adjustment in the exchange rate.
08:26 But what is the reason for the idea of returning to the currency after the elections?
08:30 What is the reason for me to return to the currency after the elections?
08:34 I don't know why.
08:36 It is very strange.
08:38 I could have taken a 5% interest rate in the last two meetings.
08:42 Things were going to improve a little.
08:44 There will be a little support.
08:47 Today, I have certificates that will expire in a few days.
08:51 The certificates that were 25% for a year will expire in a few days.
08:56 What will you do with them?
08:58 The dollar will go down.
09:00 Unless you were going to increase the interest rate by 2% or 3%.
09:04 I will not do anything with 2% or 3%.
09:06 I will increase it by 6%, 7%, 8%.
09:08 Once.
09:09 Then you will make a huge drop in the situation.
09:12 I see that there are many questions in front of the central bank and the government.
09:19 The central bank has tools that can be taken away from the dollar.
09:25 You can control the value of the currency.
09:29 Or at least calm down from the sharp decline that we are seeing.
09:33 Thank you very much, Mr. Yehab Saeed, a member of the Egyptian Central Bank.
09:37 You were with us from Cairo.
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