00:00 Welcome again. The positive performance of the AGX30 is back today for profits
00:06 with the support of Arab and Egyptian institutions.
00:10 We are back to cross the 25,500 points.
00:14 We will talk about the details of these movements.
00:16 Mr. Mohamed Atta, the managing director of Universal,
00:19 for the management of financial documents, joins us.
00:21 Welcome Mr. Mohamed and thank you for being here.
00:25 Today, the AGX30 has returned to some of the movements that we saw in the session yesterday
00:30 with some of the revisions.
00:31 We are approaching the highest high of the year.
00:35 We are talking about the highest level, which was at 25,653 points.
00:42 We were reaching it today.
00:44 The most important question today is,
00:46 has this institutional purchase returned by the Arabs?
00:48 How long do you think it will continue in this stage in the market?
00:54 Good evening, welcome to all of you and to all the viewers.
00:57 Let's be honest, this week was a strong challenge for the Egyptian stock market.
01:02 At the beginning, it really proved the awareness of the operators in the market
01:07 and made them understand that the Egyptian stock market is one of the most important trading tools
01:12 against high inflation rates.
01:14 This is very clear in the session at the beginning of the week,
01:18 which was yesterday and today, with strong insights,
01:21 not only from the institutions but also from the individuals.
01:23 This is very clear in the movement of the EGX70,
01:26 and its good performance, stability and highest level of the 5800, which we have repeatedly tested.
01:31 We have tried it more than once and the expectations started to be satisfied,
01:34 but today we closed the highest level of this barrier.
01:36 Let's also say that the purchase support from the Egyptian and Arab institutions
01:40 and the widespread purchase today from the Arab side is a strong indication
01:44 that the 30 index is still promising.
01:46 We can still see higher historical levels during the first quarter of 2024,
01:53 alongside the news that the market is waiting for to determine the exchange rate or whatever.
01:58 In short, let's say that the Egyptian stock market proved
02:02 that it is the most important trading tool that can maintain the operators' savings
02:07 during the past period.
02:09 Let's also say that a very large part of the trading tools that have actually ended up in banks
02:14 are now being used by the Egyptian stock market during the coming period.
02:18 We will see a larger purchase volume in the Egyptian stocks and in the market,
02:24 whether it is the 30 or 70 index, which has actually shown a performance improvement today.
02:30 The 30 index was closed, and the highest level of the 5800 was targeted to us, 26,000.
02:36 I think that after it is penetrated, the performance will change completely.
02:39 We will start talking about the 28,000 levels and then the 30,000 levels.
02:43 The results of the business will also remain under observation.
02:47 Mr. Mohamed, today, with any movements to the interest rates,
02:51 which we saw recently at the last Central Bank meeting in 2023,
02:55 in the process of settlement, how will the results of the banks be affected,
02:59 and specifically the International Trade Bank?
03:02 Let's say that the International Trade Bank showed very high growth rates during 2023.
03:10 I think that the growth rates will continue for the international trade,
03:15 even if there is no increase in interest rates,
03:18 but the performance of the international trade is always and never,
03:21 I mean, it speaks for itself. We see very high growth rates.
03:24 We also see a very large amount of loans for the bank,
03:27 and this is a result of the good reputation of the bank and the employees inside it.
03:31 Let's say that the international trade is at the level of 72 pounds,
03:35 and we started to penetrate it, we saw the level of 78 pounds,
03:38 and we saw that there is a sale pressure from this level,
03:41 and currently at the level of 74 pounds, the support is close to it,
03:44 and I think that with the continuation of the market rise,
03:47 we will see other positive movements.
03:49 In the case of a break in the 78 pounds level,
03:51 I think we will see a large level, the highest level of 82 pounds,
03:54 during the coming period.
03:56 The petrochemical sector, which was originally a star in 2023,
04:00 with the movement of sumos, will remain in this place,
04:04 what is your opinion, and specifically after what happened at the end of 2023
04:08 on the MOPCO share, what is your opinion on the movements,
04:12 and to what extent can we continue these increases in shares?
04:17 The worst for the year 2023 is the petrochemical sector,
04:23 and this is not a vacancy, this is a result of the very strong financial performance of the companies,
04:27 in addition to the export, which has lowered the following currency,
04:30 which has helped a lot in increasing the shares during the coming period,
04:33 and I think it will continue during 2024,
04:36 but with the change of the market, or the change of the market,
04:39 between the companies that have made price increases in the sector,
04:42 and the companies that have not moved yet and have good opportunities,
04:45 I think we will see price increases in the sector during the first quarter of the year.
04:50 Until today we have seen an energy share,
04:52 maybe the share is still flying for the best performance in the next four quarters.
04:57 Is the share movement related to the market movement in general,
05:01 or is the Arabian energy also compensating part of the reductions
05:04 that we saw from the first projects that were proposed for the share?
05:08 Let's say that the energy share in the market is characterized by a relative advantage,
05:13 which is that the liquidity that is inflated in the market or in the share in the market
05:17 is a real liquidity, not a strike liquidity,
05:20 because the share does not meet the T+0 or strike characteristics in the same session,
05:24 so all the liquidity that is inflated is a real liquidity,
05:26 and this is a result of an investment in the paper that continues for two days at least,
05:31 or two sessions at least,
05:32 so I think that's why we see big price increases in the market.
05:36 The technical performance of the share or paper that came into the market,
05:39 I think the levels of 17 and 18 will be a simple resistance for the share,
05:44 but I think there are big levels in the coming period
05:47 due to the liquidity that is inflated in the paper in the market.
05:51 We are waiting for the inflation data that will be issued by the government in December.
05:57 Most of the reports indicate that there may not be any change in the levels of inflation.
06:02 Some indicate that there may be a decrease.
06:05 What is the effect if the result is contrary to Mr. Mohamed's expectations
06:11 and its impact on companies as well?
06:13 I am walking in the same direction,
06:17 and we mentioned during the Arab Semester that the last quarter of last year
06:21 is the peak of inflation rates for Egypt,
06:23 and that with the beginning of 2024 or the first quarter,
06:26 when we announced the results of the inflation data,
06:28 there will be no change,
06:30 but on the contrary, during the second quarter,
06:32 we can see a decrease in inflation rates.
06:35 This will help if the US Federal Reserve decreases its foreign interest,
06:39 and we start to end this trend and give up the policy of tightening and start with decreasing.
06:45 I think this will help the investments a lot in Egypt.
06:48 Mr. Mohamed Atta, the head of the International Cooperation Organization for the Interest of Financial Papers.
06:53 Thank you very much for being with us from Cairo.
06:56 Thank you.
