00:00 Joe Biden has tried to rally disaffected black voters with a visit to the scene of one of the most despicable race crimes of recent years.
00:07 The US president spoke from the pulpit of the Emanuel Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, South Carolina.
00:14 It was June 17th, 2015, when the 21-year-old white man walked into the church and intended to ignite a race war, shot and killed nine black parishioners and wounded one more.
00:27 Biden at the time was vice president. Barack Obama merrily sang Amazing Grace at a tribute to the victims.
00:33 The primary in South Carolina is scheduled for February the 3rd.
00:37 Poison has for too long haunted this nation.
00:42 What is that poison?
00:45 White supremacy.
00:48 Oh, it is a poison.
00:50 Throughout our history, it's ripped this nation apart.
00:56 This has no place in America.
00:58 Not today, tomorrow, or ever.
01:00 Clear message from Joe Biden.
01:03 White supremacy ripping the nation apart.
01:05 The Iowa caucus is on January the 15th.
01:09 The state legislature reopened this Monday with the Republicans holding a three way grip on local power.
01:14 A ban on abortion six weeks after conception is on hold pending Supreme Court review.
01:21 Abortion, of course, set to be one of the hot button topics during this presidential year of campaigning.
01:27 Let's bring in for some analysis.
01:29 Someone whose presence we always appreciate, Todd Belt is professor and director of the political management program at George Washington University.
01:36 Todd, always a pleasure to see you.
01:37 We're at the start of what is going to be a long voyage, and I hope you'll be joining us at regular intervals.
01:42 We'll try not to work you too hard, sir.
01:44 How do you see the chances of the two parties as we set off on this voyage towards the presidential vote next November?
01:51 Well, happy New Year, and it's great to be with you and looking forward to a lot of discussions.
01:55 It's going to be a really interesting year.
01:58 We've never had this sort of thing where we have two former presidents running again.
02:02 We, the last time was before we have the modern presidential election system.
02:08 That was back when we had Teddy Roosevelt running.
02:09 So this is really new.
02:12 And we have, you know, somebody like Donald Trump who's really captured his party.
02:17 And there are 50 to 60 percent polling right now for Donald Trump.
02:21 I think that if he gets anywhere below 50 percent in New Hampshire and Iowa, then that means that Republicans might be looking for somebody else.
02:30 And I think that could be very concerning for him.
02:32 That is interesting because some would say that Trump is already a shoo-in.
02:36 But you're saying that it's not yet a done deal for the guy who sees himself as the ultimate dealmaker.
02:41 It's not yet a done deal, of course.
02:44 And anything can happen.
02:46 You know, Donald Trump, let's not forget, is a septuagenarian.
02:49 He's up there in terms of his age.
02:51 And things do happen.
02:53 And of course, he has all these legal issues going on.
02:56 They've only helped him so far, but they could perhaps be a detriment to him in the long run.
03:03 We'll see.
03:04 We know that that candidates like Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis have been very careful in not trying to alienate Trump's voters, not really going after him too much.
03:15 Just saying that they can do a better job of what he wanted to do so that they can still appeal to his voters in case he does stumble.
03:23 So they're there waiting if it does happen.
03:25 Why is Iowa, the caucus, that seen as so significant?
03:29 Iowa is traditionally our first, early 1970s when the system was changed.
03:37 And the reason Iowa is really important is because you have two, the two Iowa and New Hampshire that do two very different things.
03:44 In the Iowa caucuses, people actually have to go out to school auditoriums and meet with their neighbors and discuss who they want to support in their precincts.
03:53 And so it's very grassrootsy.
03:54 And in that way, it's a test of the strength of the organization that the candidate has built.
04:00 And you can sometimes get some real surprises, like when we got Rick Santorum winning once and Ted Cruz actually beat Donald Trump back in 2016, if we remember.
04:11 So surprises can happen in Iowa.
04:13 And it shows us who's actually got the ears of the people on the ground.
04:17 Today, we saw Joe Biden, though, in South Carolina.
04:21 Clearly, he was going there with a particular message to rally a particular part of the electorate.
04:26 What's his strategy?
04:28 What's the thinking there?
04:29 Right. That's exactly right.
04:31 Joe Biden has dropped the whole Bidenomics term.
04:35 And that is very telling.
04:36 And he's going after making this an election more of a choice between Biden's America and Trump's America and less of a referendum on his four years in office.
04:47 He's going back to that same thing that we heard him say the first time, that it's a battle for the soul of America.
04:53 And we're hearing him get back to that because he thinks and his campaign thinks that the way he wins a race against Donald Trump is to make it a binary choice between him and
05:05 Donald Trump so that people really have to decide, do I really want four years of chaos in the office again?
05:11 Todd Belt of George Washington University, professor and director of the political management program there.
05:17 Thank you, Todd, as always for joining us here.
05:19 And we're looking forward to more analysis from you as we go through the weeks, months, all the way to November.
05:24 Thank you so much, Dean.
05:25 Todd Belt joining us live.
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