00:00 Egypt is witnessing a dollar crisis. There are many solutions, but they depend on the government's strategy and the requirements of the IMF.
00:10 The first-in-line proposals are the main file for a solution to the dollar crisis and the lack of dollar liquidity, which Egypt is suffering from,
00:18 despite the expectations that Egypt's financial needs may exceed $25 billion over the next four years, according to Goldman Sachs.
00:28 What is happening in this file and where will it be in 2024?
00:35 Egypt has raised its targets from the first-in-line proposals. The main numbers were $5 billion to $4 billion.
00:43 The numbers now speak of $6.5 billion by the end of 2024.
00:49 But is the time appropriate to propose government companies, especially in light of geopolitical tensions in the region, which may affect the spirit of investors,
01:00 and may also affect the valuations, and thus affect what the Egyptian government will be able to get from this program?
01:09 The total amount so far is about $5.5 billion, with the target of having 35 companies, and the strategic investors are the ones who are being funded.
01:23 Why are we talking about the first-in-line proposals?
01:27 Today, Egypt is suffering from a gap in terms of its financial needs. This gap can be filled in more ways.
01:34 But in light of the negotiations with the IMF, and within the conditions and requirements of the IMF to release more than $10 billion,
01:43 there is a focus on allowing the Egyptian pound to move more flexibly, more flexibly, away from any interference.
01:54 And the other is that there is a focus on the government companies in the pound in a larger way, in addition to the impact on the interest rates.
02:06 If we look at these conditions, it is actually who will control Egypt's ability to fill this financial gap, which according to Goldman Sachs is estimated at $25 billion.
02:16 The Egyptian Central Bank has raised interest rates in an attempt to attract foreign investors and to invest in Egyptian assets, but the real interest rates remain negative.
02:27 If a fourth compensation is made to the Egyptian pound, this will increase the inflationary pressure and call for further increase in interest rates.
02:35 Today, if we look at the derivatives contracts, the non-acceptance contracts for the Egyptian pound, the investor pays lower levels of devaluation than we saw at the beginning of the year.
02:49 At the beginning of the year, the dollar reached 65 pounds, today it reaches much lower levels, close to 59.
02:59 Many international banks say that even the devaluation will be at lower levels than what is paid by investors.
03:07 This file will support a larger dollar gain, in addition to the initial offers file, and in addition to raising the interest rates, which will contribute, if it is acceptable, to attracting foreign investments.
03:23 But the dilemma is bigger than that, because we will have an impact on 105 million people, especially in light of these high inflation rates.
03:36 On the other hand, the Egyptian government has produced a solution to this gap between the price in the official market and the price in the fair market.
03:46 The Egyptian pound is not comparable to the dollar, because today the economy cannot deal with the US dollar at two prices, especially since this also affects the pricing policy of companies for products, and this also adds to the burden on the Egyptian citizen.
04:02 Egypt is ready to announce deals to exit new sectors.
04:06 The IMF is asking for a delay in the sale of government companies, and the reason is geopolitical tensions, because it will affect the valuation and thus affect the acquisition of these initial offers.
04:18 But it remains a basic requirement by the IMF to obtain the money and the expected revenues from the IMF, and to help Egypt in the face of the financial crisis it is suffering from.
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