00:00 Now this Saturday will mark the two-year anniversary of the full-scale Russian
00:04 invasion of Ukraine and after months of little progress on the battlefield
00:09 Russia is now claiming its troops have taken the village of Krynki on the
00:13 Dnipro River just days after seizing the city of Avdivka from the Ukrainian army.
00:18 So just how significant are these reported Russian gains? Let's get the
00:23 take of our foreign affairs commentator Douglas Herbert. Hi Doug, it's
00:27 important to say first of all that Ukraine today is denying that Russian
00:30 claim that Krynki has fallen to the Russians but what do you make of these
00:35 reports that in general Russia's making progress? Let's sort out these competing
00:39 claims here look the overarching headline is yes Ukraine has experienced some
00:43 setbacks on the battlefield i.e. especially tactical strategic more
00:48 symbolic losses but we also know that Russia is having a field day with these
00:53 and playing them up even exaggerating them in a very fierce information you
00:57 might call disinformation campaign ahead of Russia's presidential election next
01:01 month to make President Putin be able to really appeal like seem like a wartime
01:06 commander who's scoring victory after victory. In the case of Krynki what
01:11 is this? It's a small village on the east or left bank of the Dnipro River you
01:15 could see it there on the map on the screen which last year the Ukrainians
01:19 crossed the Dnipro and established a bridgehead there that is they established
01:23 established control over this village in what was Russian occupied territory it
01:27 was big headlines at the time. Now what we had in the past day or so is the
01:31 Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu saying that they had completely that is
01:35 Russian forces had completely reclaimed they had seized back Krynki and like you
01:39 said the the Ukrainians are dismissing this they're saying that they maintain
01:43 limited control still of Krynki that the Russians are overplaying really what
01:49 happened there and and there are conflicting is sort of claims this
01:54 morning but what we do have is the Institute for the Study of War saying
01:57 that both the open source visual evidence as well as independent Ukrainian
02:01 Russian media reports do suggest that the truth is something short of the all
02:05 out reclaiming reseasoning of Krynki that we're hearing. As for Avdivka
02:09 let's let's move on. Yes Avdivka has fallen that is not disputed it was a
02:14 five-month war one of the most atrocious probably worse than the the battle for
02:19 Bahmut. What we had is a report in the New York Times saying that there were
02:23 probably hundreds maybe upwards of 850 to a thousand Ukrainian soldiers who
02:28 were either captured or still missing in what is described as a chaotic or hasty
02:34 retreat from Avdivka that they probably overstayed their welcome didn't pull out
02:38 in time and time and that retreat wasn't as orderly as it was meant to be. The
02:42 Russians once again have been having a field day with that as well. Putin almost
02:47 gloating publicly over what he saw it sees as a chaotic retreat and it's
02:51 really also part of that Russian information campaign. Yes there's truth
02:55 Avdivka has fallen but the information campaign on the Russian
02:58 side aimed at really sowing distrust and resentment and mistrust among Ukrainian
03:04 commanders and more than that presenting to the Ukrainian people this picture of
03:09 Ukrainian forces collapsing in disarray and trying to really sap morale so more
03:14 than these are symbolic losses right but what the Russian information campaign
03:18 aims to do is to really sap that morale undercut the Ukrainian morale at a time
03:22 when already yes the Ukrainians are low on ammo and and they're up against it.
03:26 Well I was going to ask you about the ammo because it does seem the Ukrainians
03:30 are concerned President Vladimir Zelensky is saying look we need more weapons and
03:34 money for aid for the moment it's stuck in the US Congress. It is stuck because
03:38 the Republicans in the house and not just the Republicans but those enthralled
03:42 to Donald Trump and his far-right allies and the Freedom Caucus refused to bring
03:47 to a vote that 60 billion dollars in aid which by all reckonings if it were
03:52 brought to a vote would pass with bipartisan support that means
03:55 Republicans joining almost all the Democrats to release it and if it were
03:59 released the Biden administration says it's ready to deliver long-range
04:02 missiles and more ammunition and those artillery shells that Ukraine
04:06 desperately needs right now so it's being blocked and what we're seeing
04:10 right now in Krinki and in Avtivka is a sneak preview, Nadia, if you will of
04:15 perhaps more of what is to come in the days weeks and months ahead if that aid
04:20 is not released. It's going to be hard enough even with that aid. Without it the
04:24 Ukrainian cause looks more and more dire by the day.
04:27 Douglas Herbert thank you very much indeed for your analysis.
