00:00 We can now bring in Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International
00:04 Peace, as well as a former State Department analyst. Thank you very much for joining us
00:09 here on the program today. You've been a former negotiator under the Republican and Democratic
00:15 administrations in the United States. Based on what you're seeing, will we get a ceasefire,
00:20 given that Israeli officials are hell-bent on an offensive in Rafah?
00:24 The question is whether or not Israel and Hamas feel enough urgency in order to overcome the
00:30 obstacles. I think there's a reasonable chance, because I think Hamas feels under greater
00:35 pressure, and perhaps the Israelis do as well, that something could come out of this in the
00:40 next week or two. How much leverage does the United States have over Israel, given that
00:47 Washington has so far been unsuccessful in getting more aid into Gaza?
00:52 On paper, it has an extraordinary amount of leverage. It could slow walk, restrict,
00:56 or condition U.S. military assistance. It could change its voting posture in New York,
01:01 or it could call for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. The president has chosen not to do any
01:06 of these things, because I think he's persuaded, not just because of his emotional commitment to
01:12 Israel, but I think he's persuaded that the only way to change the pictures in Gaza, the only way
01:18 to surge humanitarian assistance and get a cessation of hostilities, even if it's only
01:23 temporary, is by cooperating and pushing the Israelis without causing a major crisis. If he
01:29 goes to a major crisis, I think the Israelis are perfectly prepared. This Israeli government,
01:35 the most extreme in right-wing and Israel's history, is perfectly prepared to resist.
01:39 So I think the administration is trying to play this out. If it turns out there's no deal this
01:44 time around and the Israelis are still threatening to launch an imminent operation, ground campaign,
01:51 in Rafa, I think the U.S.-Israeli relationship is going to get worse.
01:55 But there is a humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza. Even
01:58 Anthony Blinken just the other day said 100 percent of the enclave is food insecure.
02:04 It's absolutely the case. In fact, people are using terms, technical terms, like famine
02:11 or catastrophic starvation. And there's clearly a lot more, no doubt, that this Israeli government
02:18 can do to facilitate assistance. The problem is it is virtually impossible under current
02:25 circumstances to get the kind of assistance in a sustained and prolonged basis without a cessation
02:35 of hostilities. It's not just getting the aid into Gaza. It's distributing the aid within Gaza.
02:41 And we've seen what happens when, in fact, you have a convergence of lawlessness. The only way
02:50 to fix the humanitarian assistance issue is to get a cessation of hostilities.
02:56 There are around 100 hostages still in Gaza. Does their presence there change the calculus
03:04 for Israel at all? I think the hostage factor has fundamentally created and separated these
03:12 negotiations from any negotiations, certainly, that I ever participated in the Arab-Israeli arena.
03:18 The hostages are Hamas's ultimate leverage to survive. The hostages present a amplification
03:28 and a radicalization, tremendous pain for the people of Israel, puts the government under
03:35 tremendous pressure, and creates a situation where you have Israeli military objectives,
03:41 in essence, being in conflict with the redemption of its own citizens. So, yes, the hostage issue
03:50 is critically important. It may not be the most important issue, but it is right now,
03:56 along with humanitarian assistance, the most urgent one.
03:59 But, Mr. Miller, I want to jump in there, because you're saying the hostage issue is
04:04 one of the key factors that Israel has in its mind. But at the same time, we have Israeli officials
04:11 that have restricted the flow of aid into Gaza. Presumably, some of that food aid that is going
04:16 in will be used to feed the hostages. So why are they doing it?
04:21 No, I don't think that's the calculation. I think the calculation on the part of this government
04:26 is that they're under tremendous pressure from much of the public not to provide any assistance,
04:33 whether it's diverted to Hamas or not, as long as Hamas continues to hold and continues to abuse
04:40 hostages. There are 134 hostages that Hamas controls, 31 of whom the Israelis are persuaded
04:49 were either killed on October 7, bodies brought back to Gaza to trade, or they died in captivity.
04:55 I interviewed former Prime Minister Barak yesterday. His calculation is that half the
05:00 hostages, half of the 134 hostages, are no longer alive. So the pressure on the Israeli government
05:06 to avoid surging humanitarian assistance while Hamas holds the hostages is, I think, the
05:14 predominant problem, challenge, plus the logistics. Again, getting the aid to Gaza is one thing.
05:22 Distributing it in a safe and secure manner, getting it to where it belongs is right now,
05:29 I think, the more difficult problem. The fact that Washington and Israel cannot agree on what happens
05:34 in Gaza the day after this war finishes, does that change these current negotiations right now?
05:43 I think it poses a huge problem. It's not just the Israelis and the Americans who can't agree.
05:48 There's very little Arab state buy-in right now on this, and the Palestinian House,
05:53 understandably, is in tremendous disorder. I mean, a revitalized Palestinian authority
05:59 with Mahmoud Abbas, 88 years old, in the 19th year of a four-year term, under tremendous pressure,
06:05 with no credibility, largely and partly, of course, because of his own corruption,
06:10 but also as a consequence of Israeli efforts to annex the West Bank in everything but name,
06:16 has created a situation where you do not have a legitimate Palestinian governing structure.
06:22 How do you legitimize it? You have elections, but the odds that elections could be held in
06:29 the West Bank or Gaza right now, chances of that slim to none. The day after and the day after
06:36 and the day after is going to prove critically important to whether or not Gaza can have a
06:42 degree of security and prosperity that it's so long been denied.
