00:00 So since the start of the year, pollsters like me have been looking for signs that the
00:03 polls are narrowing, as every month that goes by means a general election draws closer.
00:10 But so far we're not seeing any narrowing at all. This month's Ipsos data for the
00:15 evening standard shows the Labour lead at 21 points, with the Labour Party on 41 and
00:20 the Conservatives on 20. This is very similar to a 22 point lead that we saw at the start
00:25 of the year. Now in that time, support for both of the main parties has fallen, but the
00:30 gap between them hasn't, in which case this would mean a sizeable Labour win at the next
00:35 general election, if that was indeed the result. So are there any crumbs of comfort in the
00:40 data for the Conservatives? Well, there's been a noticeable change in economic optimism
00:44 this month. We asked people whether they think the economy will get better or worse in the
00:49 next 12 months, and in May 33% said the economy would get better, and 37% said they thought
00:54 it would get worse in that time, meaning a net economic optimism score of minus four.
01:00 That is a significant improvement, a significant jump on a score of minus 31 last month. But
01:06 at this stage, the Conservatives and Rishi Sumac are not getting much credit for any
01:10 of this. As I've said, the poll lead remains stubbornly high for Labour, and 73% tell us
01:16 that it's time for change at the next general election. That's up four points from the
01:20 start of the year and eight points from last summer. As for Keir Starmer, he's seen a significant
01:26 improvement in his personal poll ratings. He's on minus 18 now, compared to minus 13
01:31 last month. And our polls for the evening standard show that people want a hypothetical,
01:36 at least for now, Starmer government to focus on the NHS in the first six months in office,
01:41 should they get there.
01:42 [MUSIC PLAYING]
