00:00I do now want to move on and talk about Donald Trump's VP shortlist.
00:04There's eight names on it.
00:06Senators Tim Scott, J.D. Vance, Tom Cotton, and Marco Rubio.
00:10Representatives Elise Stefanik and Byron Donalds.
00:13North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum.
00:15And former HUD Secretary Ben Carson.
00:17What are your thoughts on this list?
00:21Uh, look, I don't know.
00:23I mean, you can argue a case for each one, I think.
00:29And certainly we've seen that happening in the media.
00:33You know, some people had said, look, I think Donald Trump needs to pick a woman.
00:36There's only, I think, one woman on that list.
00:40You know, you have a, uh, Tim Scott was originally mentioned as one.
00:44He's not really on that list anymore.
00:46Ben Carson is.
00:48So I think we'll have to wait and see.
00:49I mean, I, look, I think the odds on favorite, uh, would probably be Marco Rubio.
00:55Even though there's that issue that they're both from Florida and Rubio would have to
00:58establish a residence somewhere else, which I think would be not a huge problem.
01:03But certainly the flavor of the month or week or whatever we're calling it is J.D. Vance.
01:09His name has been everywhere and he's been getting a lot of buzz.
01:13And there was a straw poll that was taken at the Turning Point Action
01:17event in Detroit that Trump was just at earlier this week.
01:21And J.D. Vance was the winner by like, it was 43% wanted J.D. Vance.
01:24So he has strong support within the sort of, you know, rank and file base of the party.
01:30But ultimately, um, you know, Donald Trump's going to pick who he's going to pick.
01:35And even the people who are closest to him aren't going to have a clue who it is until
01:40he makes his announcement, which, which will probably come if, if Trump is true to form
01:44via Twitter.
01:45And we'll all learn about it at the same time.
01:48As we know, there's a block of never Trump voters.
01:51Do you think the right vice presidential pick could persuade those types of voters
01:56or independent voters to maybe hold their nose and vote for Trump?
02:03No, I don't think, uh, you know, as far as never Trump voters, I mean, they're never
02:08Trump for a reason and he's at the top of the ticket.
02:09And I don't think that's going to, you know, he could, regardless of who he picks, that's
02:15not going to change their opinion of him and their desire to vote against him.
02:19Uh, could it, could it matter with some independent voters perhaps?
02:24I mean, traditionally though, you know, vice presidential picks don't have a ton of people
02:29don't go to the polls to vote for vice president.
02:31Now you could argue this is a different situation because we have the two oldest candidates
02:35we've ever had.
02:36And therefore it takes on an increased importance of if something were to happen to Trump or
02:40Biden, you know, uh, people are going to be looking harder at who would replace them.
02:45But at the end of the day, um, you know, I don't know that a vice presidential pick is
02:50going to, is going to sway a whole lot of, uh, a whole lot of undecided or, or independent
02:57voters in, uh, in Trump's direction.
02:59When you look at all of these numbers as a whole, I know a lot can happen obviously between
03:04now and election day and they will shake up after the presidential debate next week.
03:10But are you looking for any moments between now and then?
03:15I mean, you know, the conventions obviously are going to happen pretty soon.
03:19And, uh, you know, those provide opportunities for good and for bad, depending on, you know,
03:27how things go.
03:28Um, but listen, I, you know, I think this race is, is almost fully formed now.
03:36And the things that are going to happen, the debate, the conventions, these things that
03:41are going to happen between now and election day, they're known, um, in some ways they're
03:46sort of, you know, set pieces.
03:49They're, they're not going to be dramatic or, I mean, what's unknown is could there
03:53be something between now and election day, a terror attack, uh, you know, something in
03:58the Middle East, something, whatever, um, uh, you know, natural disaster, tornado, earthquake,
04:04flood, whatever, where, you know, Biden can be really presidential, like, you know, uh,
04:08Obama was with Sandy or something like that.
04:11Those are the, the unknown events that can intervene and really shift dramatically, uh,
04:16people's, people's perceptions, what they think is important, um, like, like COVID did
04:21in 2020.
04:23Um, you know, that kind of thing could really affect, and, and those are simply the surprises
04:29that we don't know about that are left in this campaign.
04:31And, and I suspect there will be at least one or two between now and then, if not more.
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