00:00Alex, we're breaking down a couple of areas in the tropics right now.
00:03Yeah, watching two areas, one in the western Caribbean and then one tropical wave way out
00:08in the Atlantic right now.
00:10But I have some good news, the one in the western Caribbean right now, a couple of days
00:14ago we were concerned that there was a track that could potentially take that feature a
00:17little further north.
00:18It does look like that's going to go west into Mexico, the feature that's circled at
00:22the bottom left of your screen there.
00:24So good news there is that it looks like it should stay away from the U.S.
00:27The other feature way out in the Atlantic right there, that's a tropical wave heading
00:31west and we saw that Puerto Rico cam.
00:33Things could look a little bit different as we head into the weekend as that storm could
00:37bring some rain and wind.
00:39And we have a few concerns for this because this will strengthen likely into a tropical
00:43storm but everything's a little bit different there as it cuts its way across the islands.
00:47Yeah, we're going to have to watch it as it comes across.
00:50It's in a pretty hostile environment right now so I don't think any development will
00:54be occurring in the near term.
00:56However, once it approaches those islands late this week, there can be that opportunity
01:00for it to strengthen into a tropical named storm.
01:02Yeah, we'll be talking about that trying to work its way on through.
01:06So there's that area of development, tropical rainstorm.
01:08I want to get ahead to where that is and when you look at the satellite imagery, what do
01:13you see with this, at least as of recently?
01:15Yeah, I see a rainstorm that's struggling to get organized right now.
01:18The center of circulation is a little bit removed essentially from those thunderstorms
01:23and if you really want development, you have to have those thunderstorms forming right
01:27over top of the center of circulation.
01:28So it's a little bit disheveled right now.
01:30There's some wind shear, there's some dry air.
01:32So in terms of the near term, I don't really see too much development.
01:36Now, the game will change as it approaches the islands, a little bit more favorable environment.
01:41So I am concerned that the storm could get a little bit more organized and we could see
01:45a named storm in the vicinity of those islands up there.
01:49And when you talk about favorable environment, we often think of the water temperature.
01:53We know that's really not a challenge.
01:54So what kind of ingredients are we looking at?
01:56Yeah, it's going to be the wind shear.
01:58Again, right now it's in an area where there's pretty high wind shear, but once it gets near
02:02those islands there, the wind shear is going to relax.
02:04And so that could give the storm a narrow window of time to potentially develop into
02:08a tropical storm.
02:09So we're going to have to watch this very, very carefully.
02:11It looks like rain is going to be probably the primary factor from this storm.
02:16There's a lot of very high mountains there, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, mountaintops of 7,000,
02:218,000, 9,000 feet.
02:22And so it's going to be like a sponge.
02:23It's really going to squeeze out a lot of that rainfall.
02:26So I am concerned, regardless of how organized it gets, that there could be some mudslides
02:30and landslides in the higher terrain.
02:32And obviously differences, too, between those countries of how their infrastructure is organized
02:36there on Hispaniola.
02:38All things we'll be watching.
02:40AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, Alexis Silva, thank you so much for joining us.
