00:00This is Apropos, well Russia has been attacking the Ukrainian capital Kiev with a sophisticated
00:08combination of missiles and drones for the first time in more than two months.
00:13Eight regions were targeted in the assault which came as the US Secretary of State said
00:17Washington intended to bolster military support to Ukraine during the final months of the
00:23Biden presidency.
00:24Antony Blinken was speaking in Brussels amid mounting political uncertainty in Kiev over
00:30how a US administration under Donald Trump will change American policy on the war.
00:36Cammie Knight has the latest.
00:41Residents of Kiev woke up to the sound of air raid sirens, an air defence fire.
00:51It was the first missile attack on the capital since August, but seeking shelter has become
00:56almost routine, entire families taking refuge in metro stations.
01:01It's horrible every time there's a missile attack, we've got used to drone strikes, if
01:08it's even possible to get used to them, because they fly over us every night.
01:14The Kiev region suffers constantly.
01:17On the outskirts of Kiev, falling debris injured several people after a warehouse caught fire.
01:23The fresh round of attacks involved six cruise and ballistic missiles and 90 drones, only
01:28about half of which were intercepted by air defence systems across the country.
01:33Ukraine has also lost ground on the front line in recent weeks and many feared that
01:37the election of Donald Trump could mean a reduction in US support that could have a
01:41decisive impact on the war with Russia.
01:45Trump has often praised Vladimir Putin and suggested in September that Ukraine should
01:48have quote, given a little bit to Moscow to secure a truce.
01:53On a visit to Brussels for talks with the head of NATO, US Secretary of State Antony
01:57Blinken sought to reassure Ukrainians.
01:59President Biden fully intends to drive through the tape and use every day to continue to
02:04do what we've done over these last four years, which is strengthen this alliance, to continue
02:08to shore up everything we're doing for Ukraine, to make sure that it can effectively defend
02:12itself against this Russian aggression.
02:14As Ukraine's biggest provider of military aid by far, US support is essential, particularly
02:20after Tuesday's confirmation that as many as 10,000 North Korean soldiers were already
02:25fighting in Kursk alongside Russian forces.
02:30To discuss, we're joined now by Olga Oliker, Programme Director for Europe and Central
02:34Asia at the International Crisis Group.
02:37Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening, Olga.
02:41As we saw there in Cammy's report, there have been further strikes on Kiev over the
02:46past 24 hours, Russian forces continuing to make gains on the eastern front lines.
02:52How concerned are Ukrainians about what happens over the coming months?
02:56Look, Ukrainians have been in a full-scale war for nearly three years.
03:02They've been at war for a decade.
03:05So of course they're concerned.
03:08Of course they worry about what comes next.
03:10But I think there's also a certain stoicism in that country and a certain recognition.
03:18On the one hand, people are exhausted by the war.
03:20On the other hand, I have yet to speak to any Ukrainians who are looking to surrender
03:27and who see that as a way out, because fundamentally they see that as the end of their country.
03:33And your organisation had said last month there was a growing understanding, as you've
03:36suggested there, that a ceasefire is perhaps more realistic at this stage than a battleground
03:42victory for Ukraine.
03:44What concessions do you think Kiev may be forced to make with Donald Trump in the White
03:49House in the new year?
03:51So look, I think some of the discussion of ceasefires and deals misses the very critical
03:58point that even if the Ukrainians would very much like a break, the Russians have been
04:03trying to send a signal that they don't want or need a break.
04:07So I think the question you want to ask is, if that's what you're looking for, is what
04:12would bring the Russians to the negotiating table?
04:15And I think one of the problems is you often hear this formulation of land for peace, which
04:20ignores the actual reason Russia is fighting this war.
04:23And it's not for Ukrainian territory.
04:26It's basically a war over Ukrainian sovereignty.
04:30So any deal that gives Russia what it wants, that's not a question of giving it land for
04:35peace.
04:36It's a question if what you're trying to do is give the Russians what they want, it's
04:39giving away Ukrainian sovereignty.
04:41Now that has repercussions for European security, which would be very negative.
04:45So even aside from what happens in Ukraine.
04:48So this is the real challenge, right?
04:50How do you get to a sustainable peace, one that actually Ukraine walks away from with
04:54sovereignty wherever, whatever territory it does or does not control?
05:00And it would also be trying to ensure that it has security guarantees to deter further
05:05Russian attacks.
05:06Do you think that is likely to be something that Moscow would agree to?
05:11So look, it depends on how you define security guarantees.
05:14When the Russians were negotiating with the Ukrainians in the spring of 2022, they also
05:18talked about security guarantees, including from Russia.
05:22But what you're talking about is promises from other countries that they will come to
05:25Ukraine's assistance.
05:27To some extent, Ukraine has that.
05:28It has signed agreements with, I think, 20 countries.
05:33But what does that mean?
05:34Will those countries fight for them?
05:35Will they risk a war with Russia?
05:37Is the security guarantee from Russia promised from Russia that it won't do anything worth
05:41the paper it's printed on?
05:43So you know, it's not as simple as saying there will be security guarantees.
05:47I think one thing that has fallen by the wayside with the election of Donald Trump is any expectation
05:53of Ukraine getting, it already has an invitation in the broad sense, but of Ukraine having
05:59a path to NATO membership anytime soon.
06:02But even without Donald Trump, I think it was long difficult to imagine the U.S. Senate
06:06that was going to ratify Ukraine and NATO.
06:10So will Europe have to do more to ensure its own security?
06:12We've already seen suggestions that European leaders are thinking that way.
06:16Look, Europe will probably have to do more for Ukraine than for themselves if they want
06:23if they want any hope of a stable peace and a secure Europe.
06:26I think that was going to be the case whether or not Donald Trump was elected.
06:29But it is the case faster and more urgently with Donald Trump poised to enter the White
06:35House in January of next year.
06:38And what exactly do you expect under his administration?
06:41You had participated yourself on a panel on his pledge to end the war in Ukraine.
06:47How quickly do you think he's going to move or what exactly is he likely to do?
06:52You know, it's really hard to know because, again, it's hard to see.
06:55You could see the war ending by with Ukrainian surrender.
07:00But of course, that has really awful repercussions, not just for Ukraine, but as I said, for European
07:05security more broadly.
07:06And that should not be something the United States is looking to.
07:10That would be very, very bad for the United States in the long term, which has very close
07:14economic and security ties with Europe.
07:17So that's a bad plan.
07:20Russia surrendering seems very unlikely since Russia at the present moment seems to have
07:25the upper hand.
07:26So unless there's something Donald Trump knows that the rest of us don't, that doesn't seem
07:30very plausible.
07:32If he can convince the Russians and the Ukrainians that negotiations are more advantageous than
07:38continuing to fight, then there might be a way to actually move forward.
07:43But I do not know that I don't know how he would move, how he would do this.
07:49It might be possible to get Putin and Zelensky into a room, sure.
07:52But getting them to leave that room with any kind of agreement is it's a different challenge.
07:58And ahead of that, the U.S. Secretary of State was speaking today in Brussels.
08:02He said that Washington, it intends to bolster its military support to Ukraine during the
08:06final months of the Biden presidency.
08:09It also wants to strengthen the NATO alliance.
08:12But realistically, what can be done in such a short period of time?
08:16Look, what they're going to try to do is send as many of the weapons that have already been
08:21promised to Ukraine and already paid for or were already committed to by the U.S. Congress
08:26to Ukraine.
08:27That's hard because the U.S. basically, you know, it has to, if it doesn't have the weapons,
08:32it can't send them.
08:33Right.
08:34So it needs to make sure that it's going to send what it's got and it's going to try to
08:37provide it.
08:38But what it can do is guarantee that the next administration and the Congress are going
08:45to continue substantial levels of assistance to Ukraine.
08:49The Europeans are looking for ways to boost their own spending.
08:53But you know, that's that's hard.
08:56And they also don't have vast quantities of weapons on the shelves.
09:00Right.
09:01I mean, so it's a it's a really huge gap that the U.S. would leave if it really does cut
09:07off assistance or even shrink it for that matter.
09:11And just finally, Blinken, he also referred to Russian and North Korean maneuvers in relation
09:17to what's happening in Ukraine, describing it as a two way street, that relationship.
09:22So what might Moscow do to strengthen, do you believe, North Korea's military capacity
09:27if it were to come to that?
09:28Look, I think the logic for North Korea of sending troops to Russia is probably they
09:33get some battlefield experience.
09:37There might be additional side deals for some sorts of weapons production or something
09:43of that sort.
09:44But really, it's been the North Koreans sending weapons to Russia recently.
09:48I think, you know, it's kind of watch watch this space for the Russian North Korean cooperation.
09:54It's clearly become a very, a very tight partnership.
09:58But what each of these countries gets out of it, I think we're all we're all still not
10:04entirely clear on.
10:06Olga, we'll have to leave it there for now.
10:07But thank you so much for your time with us this evening.
10:10That's Olga Oliker, Programme Director for Europe and Central Asia at the International
10:14Crisis Group.
10:15That is it from us for now.
10:17Up next, it's IANA.
