- 2 years ago
With just two months to go until Donald Trump’s anticipated return to the White House, tensions are rising on multiple fronts amid the war in Ukraine. The Biden administration, in its final stretch, has eased restrictions on Ukrainian use of Atacms long-range missiles, approved the provision of landmines to Ukraine, and announced $4.7 billion in debt forgiveness for Kyiv. Meanwhile, Russia is ramping up nuclear threats. Although Washington has downplayed Ukrainian claims of Moscow's first-ever use of intercontinental ballistic missiles, the US was alarmed enough to briefly shut its embassy in Kyiv this week.
The unease extends beyond Ukraine. Suspicions of sabotage to critical data cables in the Baltic Sea coincide with Finland and Sweden distributing war preparedness guides to their citizens. Is this all spiralling out of control, or is it a calculated lead-up to hard bargaining? And if the US steps back, is this the last opportunity to shape realities on the ground before borders are redrawn for good? Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Guillaume Gougeon and Ilayda Habip.
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The unease extends beyond Ukraine. Suspicions of sabotage to critical data cables in the Baltic Sea coincide with Finland and Sweden distributing war preparedness guides to their citizens. Is this all spiralling out of control, or is it a calculated lead-up to hard bargaining? And if the US steps back, is this the last opportunity to shape realities on the ground before borders are redrawn for good? Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Guillaume Gougeon and Ilayda Habip.
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
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NewsTranscript
00:00Will it be escalation all the way to Inauguration Day?
00:14With two months to go till the return of Donald Trump, the outgoing Biden administration easing
00:18conditions on use of its Atacam long-range missiles, offering landmines to Ukraine and
00:25announcing plans to forgive $4.7 billion in debt owed by Kyiv.
00:29Russia, meanwhile, ratcheting up nuclear threats.
00:33And while Washington's dampened Ukraine's initial claims of a first-ever use of intercontinental
00:39ballistic missiles by Moscow, it is talking about an experimental one that hit Dnipro
00:46this Thursday.
00:47The U.S. spooked enough by Russia's muscle-flexing to briefly shut its embassy in Kyiv on Wednesday.
00:55The jitters go beyond Ukraine and Russia, with suspicions of sabotage, data cables in
01:01the Baltic Sea that coincide with the rollout of war preparedness pamphlets to the citizens
01:06of Finland and Sweden.
01:08So is it all spinning out of control, or part of the prelude to the hard bargaining ahead?
01:14And if the U.S. does disengage, is this the last chance to change facts on the ground
01:20before borders get redrawn for good?
01:22Today in the France 24 debate, will it be peace on Putin's terms?
01:26With us, Marie Mandras, professor of political science at the French political science institute
01:32Sciences Po, your latest book in French, The Permanent War, the Kremlin's Ultimate Strategy.
01:38Welcome to the show.
01:39Good evening.
01:40With us as well, a former Moscow correspondent in a previous life, Craig Capetis, author
01:46of Bear Hunting with the Politburo.
01:48How are you, sir?
01:50Better than Putin is.
01:51We'll hear from Putin in a moment.
01:53From Washington, Robert Peters, research fellow, nuclear deterrence and missile defense at
01:59the Heritage Foundation think tank.
02:01Welcome to the show.
02:02Good evening.
02:03And from Odessa, Hannah Scheless, director of security programs at the Ukrainian PRISM
02:09think tank.
02:10Good to see you, Hannah.
02:11When you got off air with us one week ago, it turned out your neighbor's apartment had
02:16suffered a direct hit from a Russian drone.
02:20How were you doing?
02:21Yes, exactly 15 minutes after we finished the show that you see the room which I were
02:28at that moment, she had fallen to the neighboring flat and in my flat as a result, it's now
02:36absolutely uninhabited because there is no roof.
02:40There is falling of the ceilings.
02:42That's my bedroom that is now on the screen.
02:45So that was the night photos that I made immediately before we were evacuated as the
02:50fire started in the building.
02:52And that in the morning when we came, we realized that you can see the wonderful Odessa sky
02:57just if you would risk to be at that bed.
03:02So since Thursday, we are not allowed there.
03:05We don't know what is happening.
03:06The problem is that the place where my house is, it is the very, very downtown of Odessa.
03:13That is the historical center, which is under the protection of UNESCO.
03:18The UNESCO commission was the next morning already.
03:20And these building in additional is the cultural heritage building.
03:25So you understand that it was not the only building targeted at that night, just few
03:31streets from us and other historical building also had the same damage.
03:36So now you have eight families only in our building without their flats, lives, memories,
03:43everything.
03:44But at least I don't know what luck saved the lives of everybody, because that was really
03:50dangerous and just minutes thanks to the emergency services who just evacuated people as a lot
03:55of the exit doors being just blocked.
03:59So as you can understand, Ukrainian resilience that everybody praised for three years is
04:06something important.
04:08But I think that for your viewers, it's quite important to understand that it doesn't matter
04:14how close you are to the front line, how famous you are, or you're thinking that you're living
04:20in the safe, protected place, de facto Russians just don't care because their task is just
04:26to damage and to eliminate Ukrainians.
04:28Yeah.
04:29Ukraine getting its, Ukraine's capital getting its first snowfall of the season this Thursday.
04:36And that was coupled with the familiar sound of air raid sirens on this, the Maidan Square
04:43Revolution anniversary.
04:46Russia has been intensifying its attacks against critical infrastructure and civilians at the
04:51outset of war, as illustrated in the personal case of Hannah Scheless.
04:57This Thursday, though, the focus on the central city of Dnipro, only two wounded, but further
05:03alarms raised when what was first described as an intercontinental ballistic missile,
05:09now being qualified by the United States as an experimental weapon, was used by Russia.
05:19Robert Peters, let me begin with you on this point.
05:23This, first of all, it was fired from near the Caspian Sea, and is this intermediate
05:32kind of a weapon, how experimental, these are the words out of Washington, is it?
05:39Well, it's hard to say how experimental it is, and I think it's kind of beside the points.
05:44I mean, to me, the major takeaway is that the Russians took a nuclear capable ballistic
05:50missile, removed the nuclear warheads off of it, and put on conventional high explosives
05:56underneath the nose cone.
05:58Then those conventional high explosives came down independently and struck targets.
06:02Fortunately, it wasn't a tremendous amount of civilian casualties, but the signal's there.
06:08The signal is they used a nuclear capable ballistic missile days after the United States
06:13lifted the employment restrictions on the Ukrainian employment of American provided
06:19attack missiles.
06:21This also came days after Russia announced its new nuclear employment doctrine, which
06:26was quite aggressive.
06:27And so I think what we're seeing from Moscow is an attempt to tell the West, and in
06:31particular Washington, you need to roll back the amount of support you're giving to
06:37Ukraine, in particular, the lifting of restrictions of deep precision strike into Russia
06:43itself. I think that we're in a period right now of nuclear signaling coming out of
06:48Moscow, and we need to understand that as such.
06:52Well, let's first listen to Vladimir Putin, because he spoke just a short while ago,
06:57definitely saying that this is retaliation for the US and the UK giving the green
07:04light to Ukraine launching long range missiles inside of Russian territory.
07:12In response to the use of American and British long range weapons on November the 21st
07:17of this year, the Russian armed forces launched a combined strike on one of the facilities
07:23of the Ukrainian defence industry.
07:25One of the newest Russian medium range missile systems was tested in combat conditions.
07:31In this case, with a ballistic missile in a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead.
07:37We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military facilities of those
07:41countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities.
07:45And in the event of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond decisively.
07:50I recommend that the ruling elites of those countries that are hatching plans to use their
07:55military contingents against Russia seriously think about this.
08:01A lot to unpack in that statement.
08:04First of all, when he talks about the elites of the nations that are trying to use
08:10their military against the Russians.
08:15What does he mean exactly?
08:16I don't know.
08:17It's propaganda as usual.
08:21I don't think we should pay too much attention to what he says.
08:25We should retaliate in words to what they say in Moscow.
08:30It is their escalation from the very start.
08:33Putin is the aggressor and he's continued the aggression for nearly three years.
08:40It's 1,000 days of war.
08:43And he's playing with us, saying that we escalate.
08:47I mean, we have just to reply.
08:50This is simply lies and propaganda.
08:53So I would rather we listen to what Volodymyr Zelensky has to say.
08:58Do you take his nuclear threats seriously?
09:01Well, of course, we need to take them seriously as threats.
09:06That is, they have a propaganda and a destabilisation effect on us,
09:16the allies of Ukraine and on Ukraine to try and push more and more of our political elites,
09:26our military, our societies to say,
09:29well, maybe we should force Ukraine to negotiate some kind of ceasefire,
09:40which, of course, would be a total disaster for Ukraine and for us in Europe.
09:46Craig Capetis, is the plan by Putin, as described there by Marie, working?
09:51Nishagu nazad.
09:53Learn your Russian.
09:54Nishagu nazad.
09:56Not one step backwards.
09:59That was the order that Stalin gave to his generals when the Nazis invaded the Soviet Union.
10:06And if they didn't follow that order, he shot them and charged the family for the bullet.
10:11For the past 1,000 days, and how many stories have I written on this in the Daily Beast
10:16and shows have we done, it's the same thing.
10:20The United States is being, and the West, is being conned by Vladimir Putin.
10:26Frankly, the West doesn't have the guts, it's never had the guts to put
10:33any firepower in the hands of the Ukrainians to take on Russia.
10:39Now we've got 10,000 North Korean troops there, and I'll make you a bet, Professor,
10:44six months from now, we'll see 110,000 there.
10:47He's not going to stop, and he's not going to stop even if there's a peace treaty.
10:53People do not study their history.
10:56Putin, he's taking candy, like taking candy out of the mouth of a baby,
11:01and the Americans fall into it every time.
11:04Hold on, you say that, but there was,
11:07he was pushed back when he tried to take the capital.
11:09He wasn't pushed back.
11:11Stop it with the play in the game of risk, like we're here having a dinner party.
11:16That's, that is nothing.
11:18No, it was a huge military defeat for the Russian army in the spring of 2022.
11:24Has he revised his, has he?
11:25Francois, we had how many back bombers coming into Ukraine today?
11:30Where was all that American aircraft that we were supposed to have given them, the F-110s,
11:3520s, whatever they're called, to shoot them down?
11:38The West is being taken to the kitchen on this.
11:41The sanctions have done nothing.
11:43I don't agree, I really, I don't agree at all.
11:44I think we have been quite good at dealing with what the Russians,
11:52or rather Vladimir Putin, because it's really him,
11:55what he does to try and terrify the Ukrainians, our allies and friends,
12:01Hanna, it's very nice to see you today,
12:05to terrify the Ukrainian, terrify their population because of shellings,
12:10into just no longer being able to fight and terrifying us,
12:17especially European governments and European societies,
12:21into being afraid of nuclear escalation, right?
12:29And we have been very good, I think, in Europe, most of our governments,
12:33certainly NATO and the EU, to not give in to what is pure threat and no longer deterrence.
12:44You heard Robert Peters at the outset make the point that Vladimir Putin has his messaging
12:50already when it comes to how he talks about nuclear weapons.
12:56Is it the same when it comes to NATO?
12:59He's been basically saying the same thing for nearly three years.
13:02But is NATO answering him in the proper manner?
13:06The proper manner is what we're doing now.
13:09That is to allow the Ukrainian army to use weapons,
13:15long distance weapons, to hit Russian territory.
13:21And also we are continuing and I think accelerating our military support.
13:31France is doing that.
13:32Greece is doing that.
13:34And the only response to Putin's escalation, it's not our escalation,
13:41is to support more effectively and more rapidly the Ukrainian war effort.
13:48It seems like we're having two different conversations at the same time.
13:51Let me bring in Robert Peters on this.
13:54There's the conversation on conventional warfare and the conversation on nuclear threats.
14:00Are they the one in the same or are they two different conversations?
14:04So, you know, the United States has provided $174 billion worth of material aid and economic
14:12assistance to Ukraine.
14:14And they've used that to include fighter aircraft, long distance precision strike,
14:19M1 Abrams main battle tanks.
14:21And they've used that, the Ukrainians have used that,
14:23to kill a significant amount of Russians and stop the invasion.
14:28Now, that's linked to the Russian nuclear threats, because Russia's been unable to take
14:35Ukraine because of the courageous and effective defense of Ukraine by the Ukrainian armed forces.
14:43This frustrates Russia, right?
14:44And so that's why they're put back to threatening to use nuclear weapons,
14:49one, to achieve some type of operational effect,
14:51but two, to try to coerce the West to stop providing assistance to Ukraine.
14:56Now, the question for the West is, is the war in Ukraine worth the prospects of a limited
15:02nuclear exchange with Moscow?
15:05And that's the conversation going on right now in Western capitals.
15:10May I just add one point, is that we should also ask the following question.
15:16And I'm a Russia specialist.
15:18I've been going to Russia and Ukraine for many, many years.
15:23And the question is, does the dictator, Vladimir Putin,
15:28who decided to go for this war of regression against the advice of his own military,
15:34can he risk, as an isolated leader, can he risk to use nuclear weapons
15:44against a country that is an ally of NATO?
15:49That is, we have very close security partnership with Ukraine.
15:56Can he risk it?
15:58And honestly, I am not sure he can risk it.
16:02Now, the man now...
16:03You're not sure, but you're not certain.
16:05Well, we can never be certain with Putin.
16:08Putin is deranged.
16:09I mean, he's a man who wants to destroy Ukraine.
16:12It's an impossible goal to achieve.
16:15So there's something so phantasmagoric, I don't know how to say it,
16:23about Putin alone, not followed by his military or his advisers,
16:30saying three years ago that he wanted to annihilate the Ukrainian nation,
16:35to denazify, to neutralize, to force the Ukrainians into losing their sovereignty,
16:43when we know it's a big country, it's a 40 million plus inhabitant country.
16:51So the question we should be asking is, can Vladimir Putin,
16:57does he have the capacity to force his military to go for a nuclear risk with NATO?
17:03This is the key question for us.
17:06Hannah Schillest, the question of whether or not Vladimir Putin is once again making
17:15an idle threat or not when it comes to nuclear weapons aside,
17:21a new poll out for the magazine The Economist shows that now a majority
17:28of Ukrainians are in favor of sitting down at the negotiating table.
17:34Your thoughts on how Putin's words will land among Ukrainians this Thursday.
17:43First of all, if to return back to the previous conversation,
17:45I think that the truth is somewhere in between.
17:47Definitely a lot of our allies within NATO did much more than maybe we even expected.
17:53And the delivery of the weapons from the US, from France, from the UK,
17:57from other countries, we are extremely grateful.
17:59That would be impossible to stand without it.
18:03But at the same time, unfortunately, I would not be the same optimistic as Marie
18:08because of several issues.
18:10First of all, Putin is not alone.
18:13Look at the latest BRICS and how many leaders traveled there.
18:17When the German chancellor is calling him,
18:20he also adds to this feeling of absence of isolation.
18:25That's exactly what Putin needs.
18:27And that's why he feels himself stronger and stronger.
18:31And the second, if in the beginning, his military being against it,
18:35unfortunately now, it's not only the Russian population,
18:39but Russian military who is totally supporting this war.
18:42At the 1,000 day of this war in Russian social networks,
18:47it was very popular leaflet that was said,
18:501,000 days of the great patriotic special military operation.
18:55And great patriotic war, that's how Russians call the Second World War.
19:00So you understand this reference, how it became the people's war
19:04and the war for defending Russia.
19:07They don't present it as any type of aggression.
19:10That's why now when you follow any of the Russian sources,
19:13you understand that Putin supports it.
19:15In Ukraine, when you see the sociology that is slightly changing,
19:21it's still not a real majority about those who are ready for negotiations.
19:25Let's remember, Ukraine was ready for negotiations at the day one.
19:31Because we are not aggressors, we are not going to occupy Russian territory.
19:35Kursk was necessary only to demonstrate Putin
19:38that he is not the guy who can control everything.
19:41We are ready to leave it at any moment.
19:44But the problem is that Putin's position has not changed.
19:48The conditions that he put,
19:50and that is important in this sociology to correlate two answers.
19:53Because one answer is, are we ready to start negotiations?
19:57Nobody would disagree if Zelensky would meet Putin and talk with him.
20:01But then if you ask on what conditions and what Putin really wants,
20:05he wants all the territories that he currently occupied.
20:09And Ukrainian population, 90% says,
20:12no, Crimea is Ukraine and territorial integrity should be.
20:17He wants Russian language, he wants Russian church,
20:20he wants absence of Ukrainian armed forces.
20:23For these, none of the Ukrainian presidents,
20:25would it be Zelensky or anybody else, would ever agree.
20:27Because population would never agree to this.
20:30All right.
20:30We heard a bold prediction earlier from Craig Kopytas,
20:32which was that the 10,000 North Koreans currently in Russia could soon be 110,000.
20:40Whether the North Koreans are in for the duration remains to be seen.
20:44But what's already clear is that the Kremlin is grateful for the help.
20:48What with news that Russia has transferred more than 70 animals,
20:52including an African lion, two brown bears, 45 pheasants to a zoo in Pyongyang.
21:00That story coming out in The Guardian newspaper, among other media.
21:06Robert Peters, again, this latest round of escalation,
21:11and this was the reason given by the Pentagon for giving the green light on those attack,
21:17was the North Koreans.
21:18What are your thoughts on where they fit into this puzzle?
21:23It's hard to say.
21:2610,000, 20,000 North Koreans aren't going to make that big of an impact on the battlefield.
21:33Russia needs troops.
21:35There's no question about that.
21:36But North Koreans are not known for their fighting prowess.
21:41Why the administration chose at this point to lift the restrictions on the employment
21:47of attack comes deep into Russia.
21:49It's hard to say, in part because there's been no public statement from President Biden
21:54on why you've seen the change in employment for American weapons after two and a half years of
22:00this war.
22:02So we really don't know.
22:03I think it's very possible you could see up to 50,000 North Koreans fighting in this war.
22:08Would it have that big of an effect?
22:10I don't know.
22:11It's not great for Ukraine, that's for sure.
22:14But you're probably going to see a continuation of this World War I style,
22:19slow advance through trenches.
22:20That's awful.
22:22You talk about World War I, but there's also the feeling that
22:26there's this feeling that things could escalate beyond the two belligerents at hand.
22:32Talk about North Korea.
22:34Now, for instance, one damaged undersea cable, that could be the mistake of a ship's errant
22:40anchor.
22:40But two, well, that's suspicious.
22:42NATO allies, Lithuania, Sweden, Germany, Finland, they've all been scrambling this week after the
22:48damage reported on Monday to two data cables, the German defense minister even raising the
22:54prospect that it's part of hybrid warfare.
22:58And there you look at that map, Craig Kopitis, your thoughts on this.
23:03Is that a calling card that's being sent?
23:05I think if you impart Western logic to Putin's belligerence and barbarity,
23:10you're barking up the wrong tree.
23:13And frankly, you have to be very careful not to do that.
23:16But we're going to do that anyway.
23:22Putin doesn't care.
23:27Putin doesn't have a public he has to answer to.
23:30But in this case, it's a message being sent to, if it is indeed nefarious,
23:36these damage to these two undersea cables.
23:39I think a more important message being sent is that today in Kommersant,
23:46reported the newspaper, which I was the co-founder of, I might add,
23:51it reported that butter was up 30 percent in cost over last year and potatoes were up 65 percent
23:59over last year.
24:00And no one's complaining because no one ever will complain.
24:04We sit here and we think, we look at what's happening in the Baltic Sea
24:10and we get, oh, this must be a signal for something.
24:14Putin's playing with us.
24:16His ideology is sinister.
24:18He was not legitimately elected.
24:21He is going to do whatever he's going to do, and he's not going to back down in Ukraine.
24:27Briefly, last week, the U.S. announced that it was going to let the Ukrainians
24:34use long-range weapons.
24:36Why didn't they just pick up the phone and call the Kremlin and tell them?
24:39Why didn't they just tell the Ukrainians, start shooting?
24:43Number two, just earlier...
24:45Because is that what they would have done under the Cold War?
24:47Is that what would have happened?
24:49All I know is you don't tell the bad guy that you're about to shoot him.
24:54You don't do that.
24:55That is no military doctrine I know.
24:58Number two, today, Norway announced that it was going to donate $50 million to the Ukrainian
25:06defense industry to produce more homemade weapons and increase the rate of production.
25:13Well, Putin is now isolated.
25:16Where that money is going to be going, and those places will be bombed, I guarantee you.
25:21Why didn't the Norwegians just go to Northrop or some weapons developer and say,
25:27here, $50 million worth of new stuff, get it to Ukraine tomorrow and go after the Russians?
25:34Our policy...
25:35America, the West has not had a sane policy towards Russia since Reagan and Bush I, in
25:44my opinion.
25:46They just have not.
25:48They don't understand the Russian mindset.
25:52Three years in, Marie Mandos, are we any better at reading the Kremlin than when the full
25:59scale...
25:59I don't think we need to read a man's mind, especially when the mind is not very sane
26:08or reasonable.
26:09I think we need to study very closely what they do.
26:15What they do.
26:16And how we can respond in the most effective way.
26:22And I'd like to add to what was said about sending North Korean soldiers that they had
26:31to train in Russia because they were not trained for this kind of war.
26:36And it's a sign that the Russian authorities have problems recruiting, mobilizing more
26:46young men or older men or even men who are convicted felons in prisons to go and fight.
26:54And I even have more information coming from one of my very good Russian colleagues who
27:00is a military expert who analyzed the new Putin decision to limit the amount of money
27:15that is awarded to the injured men in combat and coming back.
27:20So they are trying to save money and take money away from those soldiers that were injured.
27:32It shows that they have financial issues or budget issues.
27:39It shows also that the military commanders and the people in the Kremlin who are making
27:45those decisions are not aware that their soldiers that are fighting in Ukraine,
27:52many of them get injured, killed, etc.
27:57That those soldiers, they get the news.
28:01You see, they get the news.
28:02The hearsay is there that they will get less money when they come home.
28:08And what my Russian colleagues tell me, based, I think, on very serious work,
28:14is that the morale is very, very low.
28:17And then fewer and fewer people want to go and fight for money.
28:24And in many cases, you know, they have to be forced to go.
28:28And they are...
28:29So what I'm just trying to say is that...
28:32Excuse me, no, no.
28:33Excuse me.
28:33The Russian army...
28:34The Daily Beast, we wrote a series on that very issue six months ago, a year ago.
28:40Oh, they're demoralized.
28:41Oh, there's not enough money.
28:43That...
28:44Please stop looking at this with Western logic and what some clownstick in the Kremlin is telling us.
28:51That's not how the Russians think.
28:54Why do you think the Koreans are there?
28:56They're just cannon fodder.
28:59Cannon fodder.
29:01One step backwards.
29:03This is how the Russians think.
29:06This has been their historical imperative for centuries.
29:10Our problem is how Putin acts and his military commanders act.
29:14That's what matters.
29:15You agree with me on that?
29:17The Reuters news agency has been reporting that Vladimir Putin,
29:22quoting five different sources, you're not going to like this, Craig, they're Russian sources,
29:28open to...
29:29Vladimir Putin open to discussing a ceasefire deal with Donald Trump.
29:33But only if Kyiv abandons its ambition to join NATO, the Kremlin could broadly agree
29:40to freeze the conflict.
29:42That's the wrong graphic.
29:45Apologies for that.
29:47The Kremlin could broadly agree to freeze the conflict along the front lines.
29:53Hannah Scheless, again, Russia is feeling pain.
29:59Is Russia willing to sit down at the bargaining table, I guess, is the first question.
30:04You know, to sit on the table is just the first step.
30:07It's not the process.
30:08And it's definitely not the final result.
30:11And here is quite an interesting that when they are saying that to freeze it on the current
30:15front line, they are intensifying the attack counteroffense in Kursk region, because they
30:22understand that what they expected and what they've been telling, because it is not the
30:26first time they put this statement, that they want to total control of the old occupied
30:32territories of Donbass and Crimea and newly occupied territories of the Parisian Kherson
30:37regions.
30:38But before Kursk, they've been just hoping that that would be with them, what is total
30:43nonsense.
30:44But at the same time, now they cannot say the same things as we would say, OK, so where
30:49is Kursk?
30:50You cannot control your own territory.
30:52And that is absolutely different negotiations pattern that we are coming.
30:57So definitely, we already noticed for these three years, a very important pattern in Putin
31:03behavior that you need to remember, that each time they have certain difficulties at the
31:08battlefield, they immediately, either through the diplomatic channels or in the public
31:13statements, are saying that they are ready for negotiations because they understand two
31:18things after this.
31:19They hope to buy time, which they need.
31:23The second is they hope that the Western partners would stop providing weapons to Ukraine,
31:28saying that we don't want to escalate.
31:30This crazy phrase about the escalation that we hear each time.
31:33So if Russia is ready for negotiations, why should we give you weapons?
31:37Why should we spend money or effort if maybe in two days you would finish this war?
31:44Yeah, and that brings us back to what you were stating earlier, Robert Peters, about
31:48what the Biden administration said was its reason for giving the green light on the use
31:54of those long-range missiles.
31:57Well, we're two months out from Inauguration Day, and there's a sense that the outgoing
32:02administration is front-loading the help ahead of a Donald Trump who's vowed to cut a deal
32:07on day one.
32:10Will Donald Trump actually do that?
32:13So, look, I don't want to speculate on what a future Trump administration may or may not
32:17do.
32:18I have no idea.
32:19What I will say, though, is that you've got bipartisan consensus in Washington that the
32:24primary threat for American national interest is China.
32:28And Russia is an important threat, but ultimately it's a secondary threat.
32:33When you look at the fact that Europe has a population that is five times that of Russia,
32:40it's got an economy that's seven times that of Russia, we still see Russia as being Italy
32:48with nuclear weapons.
32:49And so it's within Europe's powers to deter Russian aggression.
32:54And that's a good thing.
32:55That works out really well for us in NATO.
32:58But in Washington, we're looking very seriously at the Chinese military expansion.
33:04And for us, I think it's fair to say no matter who would have won the election two weeks
33:08ago, they'd be looking increasingly—
33:09Are you stating that China is a greater military threat than Russia?
33:15Yes.
33:16Yes, I am.
33:18Because the Chinese economy is two thirds that of the American economy.
33:24And the Russian economy is only 20 percent that of Europe's economy.
33:27But I mean, just looking at economics alone, China has a far greater threat to global
33:34stability than Russia is.
33:35China has the world's largest navy.
33:38Yeah.
33:38And so in Washington, we're looking across the globe and we're saying, yeah, Russia's
33:43bad.
33:44They've got a lot of bad things going on.
33:46We want Ukraine to succeed without question.
33:49But in comparison, it is dwarfed by the threat posed by China.
33:55A rare day on your show, a liberal like me agreeing with someone from the Heritage Foundation.
34:01Robert is absolutely correct.
34:04China is a much greater military threat.
34:08You said something interesting.
34:10Biden is now front loading before the weapons and everything before the inauguration and
34:16Trump takes over again.
34:18Why didn't he front load a thousand days ago?
34:21That's when it should have been.
34:22It should have been front loaded and it was not done.
34:26Now, as far as a peace agreement, I'm sure Putin would love to have a peace agreement.
34:31He could celebrate back in Moscow.
34:33Everyone would be would be a hero.
34:35But that's not going to shut down his aggression long term.
34:39It's not going to shut down him trying to go.
34:43So then at what point does it become the United States' problem again ahead of China?
34:48It's always going to be a problem for the United States because
34:54we're the jewel of democracy, the United States.
34:57We are we are the crown of NATO.
35:02Putin, China, China is a separate deal to to pay attention to and to deal with.
35:10Tonight, we're looking at Russia and Russia will remain a threat so long as Putin is there
35:17and his kleptocracy is working and he will be a threat to Ukraine going forward, regardless
35:24of any deal.
35:26Can Hanna and I respond to this, please?
35:30Hanna Shalest, how do you see what happens after Inauguration Day?
35:36No, I wanted to connect like you're separating China and Russia, what is absolutely incorrect
35:41in our conditions, because China would be a threat in case Russia would not be defeated.
35:49And that's clearly seen because we are analyzing now the latest scenarios, for example, for the
35:54China military exercises.
35:56And I see all the lessons learned from the Russian actions in the end of 2021 in the
36:00maritime domain, for example.
36:02Also, China is studying how to avoid sanctions very clearly now.
36:07And traveling this year a lot in the Southeast Asia and in the Pacific, all these countries
36:15that would be the first targets for China, they are saying like we see and our intelligence
36:21services see more and more how China is learning all the lessons.
36:25And they understand, can they go or not?
36:27They will go against the US, against the Asia-Pacific countries, and first of all, against the Asia-Pacific
36:34countries, as soon as Russia wins, because they understand that West is weak.
36:40Western sanctions cannot be.
36:41The weapons will not come when it should be.
36:44The security guarantees depends on the political will more than on the treaties and promises.
36:50And they also learn military.
36:52You see already a lot of the stuff, how they learned in terms of the tactics, in terms
36:57of the new technologies development, even the definitely Chinese can produce much more
37:03and they have a bigger forces than the Russian Federation.
37:07But at the same time, Chinese are much more pragmatic, while Russians are very emotional
37:12and irrational very often.
37:14So Chinese understand that this huge economy is huge only because they are able to trade
37:20with Europe, because they are able to trade with other countries.
37:23And if they think that the West would be strong and united, they also will think twice should
37:30they initiate any aggressive actions or not.
37:33So even if we would like to separate these two cases, Russian and Chinese, unfortunately,
37:39it is not possible anymore.
37:42Marie Mandras, especially because the world is changing ahead of this inauguration day
37:46in the United States.
37:47I have to respond on two points.
37:51We still sometimes these days mention the West, Western allies, Western security, don't
37:58we?
37:59We do.
38:00So Europeans are with the United States, the political and military transatlantic alliance.
38:10And we are very strong.
38:13So please do not talk about Washington's priority with China when the United States
38:22is so closely interconnected with the Europeans.
38:27OK, this makes no sense.
38:30Second, on China, I am in daily contact with colleagues and friends in the United States.
38:41I follow political developments, strategic issues every day.
38:47And there is no bipartisan consensus that China is the number one security issue.
38:54China is the medium term economic problem.
39:02But I have never heard anybody and certainly come with this strange idea that the United
39:14States would see more of a security threat or a military threat from China today when
39:23Russia is waging a monstrous war against a country that had never threatened it.
39:33So let's go back to the reality.
39:38The reality is that the United States of America cannot let the Europeans
39:48find themselves in a situation.
39:50Even under a Trump administration?
39:52No, I think the Trump administration, it's very difficult.
39:57I mean, I think, you know, Robert, in a way, presenting to us the Trump approach.
40:04But with Donald Trump, it was the same eight years ago.
40:09There was a lot that he said and that he couldn't do.
40:13So whatever the Trump administration does, first, Congress also makes decisions.
40:21And that's important.
40:24And the Europeans have now to work very closely together and continue to work very close with
40:32all their counterparts in the United States and Canada.
40:36And it's not only the White House.
40:38All right.
40:38We're running short on time.
40:39I just want to ask, because we're speaking on the day when Donald Trump's pick for the
40:42Justice Department has quit before his nomination process even unfolded.
40:48That's good news.
40:49What about his defense pick?
40:51He's a former Fox News host.
40:53He's called Pete Hegseth, and he hasn't really made headlines about pronouncements on Ukraine,
40:57but more on calling to fire what he says are woke generals and, you know, talking about
41:06a rolling back of diversity rules inside the military.
41:09Yeah, he's Donald Trump's Beatle Bailey.
41:11If you don't know who Beatle Bailey is, Google it.
41:13He's a cartoon soldier.
41:14I would like—
41:15Will he get—will his nomination get confirmed?
41:17I have no idea.
41:19I would like to defer to Robert, actually, my new comrade at the Heritage Foundation
41:24on this China question, because I think you're really wrong, Professor.
41:29I'm sure you think I'm wrong.
41:31Robert has the statistics and knows the details of that theater much better than I do.
41:37But I just think you're dead wrong on that issue, Professor.
41:40But on this issue of which way the administration will go, because we're running short on time,
41:46Robert Peters, will Pete Hegseth be the next defense secretary?
41:53I have no idea.
41:54That's up to the United States Senate, and I don't want to speak for them.
41:57The only thing I'll say is, don't take it from me that China's the number one threat.
42:01Take it from President Biden and his 2022 national defense strategy and national security
42:06strategy, as well as President Trump's 2018 national defense strategy, which prioritizes
42:11China as the number one threat to the United States.
42:14It was before the war of aggression of 2022.
42:19This was after the invasion.
42:21Anna Shales, just quickly a final word on what happens now in the coming days,
42:26and really over the next two months ahead of that inauguration.
42:31We already have the intensification of the fire from the Russian side.
42:35So starting from the last week, we have very heavy shellings.
42:40On Friday, that's been the biggest since August with 120 missiles.
42:46We have this new experimental, so-called experimental weapons being used, and we see
42:51the intensification of the fighting in Kursk region and on the east.
42:55So that would be unfortunately the reality of the next month, at least as much as Russians
43:00would have forces.
43:01Let's see how effective would be the strikes that are happening now against the Russian
43:06territory with the American and French missiles that targeted, especially today, a very important
43:12part in the Kursk region.
43:14And the situation on the battlefield would probably defy what would be the situation
43:22in the end of January in case any telephone conversation between Putin and Trump would
43:28continue and what would be at the negotiation table.
43:31Unfortunately, only the battlefield really defined the starting position.
43:35All right.
43:35Much will happen between now and January the 20th.
43:39I want to thank you, Hannah Scheless, for being with us from Odessa in Ukraine.
43:44I want to thank Robert Peters in Washington.
43:46Marie Mandras, Craig Kopytas, thank you for being with us here in The France 2040.