00:00And it's now been one month since longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was ousted
00:05from power after that lightning rebel offensive from Islamist-led coalition Hayat Tayyar al-Sham,
00:10or HTS.
00:12International leaders are still determining how to deal with the new rulers in Damascus.
00:16Speaking this Wednesday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrault said some sanctions against
00:20Syria could be lifted, quote, quickly.
00:23EU sanctions in Syria are currently blocking the delivery of humanitarian aid and hindering
00:28the country's recovery.
00:30Well, that comes as international flights resumed out of Damascus Tuesday, a move that
00:34many hope could help put the country's economy back on its feet.
00:38We're going to talk more about this now with Aaron Zellin, who is a senior fellow at the
00:42Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
00:44Aaron, thanks for taking the time to speak to us.
00:47It's been one month since the fall of the Assad regime.
00:49Is it too soon to take stock of how HTS is doing there?
00:55I think that overall, we can say that they've been able to consolidate, at least in the
01:00areas that they control.
01:02Of course, the northeast of the country remains out of its hands due to continued fighting
01:07between the Turkish-proxy Syrian National Army and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic
01:10Forces.
01:11But overall, they've been able to get the legitimacy that they needed to start governing
01:17essentially in the areas that they control.
01:19At the same time, much of the leadership of the new administration are mostly HTS loyalists.
01:28So a lot of it's more of the same of what we saw in northwest Syria before the fall
01:32of the regime.
01:33Indeed.
01:34So you said that fighting is still going on in parts of Syria through these proxy groups.
01:38I mean, tell us a bit more about that and how bad that is.
01:41Well, we see deadly attacks every single day between the Turkish proxies and the U.S.-backed
01:47forces that are supposed to be fighting the Islamic State, which is one of the worries
01:51that these Turkish-backed forces could overthrow the forces that are fighting ISIS, and therefore
01:57that could lead to the return of the Islamic State.
02:00Thankfully, so far, we haven't seen the Islamic State take advantage of the fall of the regime.
02:05No attacks during Christmas, no attacks during New Year's, which would have been prime targets
02:09historically.
02:10So that's a good thing.
02:11But there still are definitely many dire potential potentialities.
02:16You're currently working on your second book, which is on the history of Syrian jihadism.
02:19I mean, how do you see this rise to power of HTS fitting into this path that Syria has
02:24been on, particularly when it comes to the Islamic State group?
02:28I mean, I see it as part of this broader process that we've seen going back to the early 1960s
02:35when the Ba'athists and then later the Assads came into power, where you saw a secular state
02:41essentially being implemented, and then one that was personified by a core group of Alawites,
02:47and therefore you had a core group of, you know, Sunni Islamists trying to overthrow
02:53what they perceived as a irreligious state.
02:57And they've finally been able to do this.
02:59However, there is a big difference between HTS and ISIS.
03:03I think we can already tell in the months since they've taken over the country that
03:06they operate much differently than ISIS did when they were controlling parts of Syria
03:10and Iraq.
03:11Indeed.
03:12And that's, of course, reflected in the diplomacy we've seen over the past month.
03:15I mean, what do you think about the way the international community has reacted to this?
03:19I think the international community has understandably wanted to make sure that there is a stable
03:24country going forward.
03:25It is in the middle of the Arab world, and therefore what happens in Syria does not necessarily
03:29stay in Syria, as we've seen over the last decade plus, and it affects the stability
03:33of Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, as well as anything related to global security potentially
03:39due to the Islamic State.
03:40And so I think most countries, especially in the West, as well as Arab countries, are
03:44trying to make sure that that happens.
03:45And that's why we're already seeing a bunch of humanitarian aid going in.
03:49But now with the easing of potential sanctions at the United States just in the last couple
03:53of days, it's possible that this could lead to more economic activity as well.
03:57Indeed, which is something just to remind everyone that Syria needs direly.
04:01I mean, it's a country that's been in an economic freefall.
04:05Are you hopeful for the future of Syria at this point?
04:08I'm hopeful, but at the same time, I'm also a bit guarded.
04:11I mean, many people have been talking about the shape of this government and the potential
04:17for inclusivity.
04:18Thus far, it's mainly been HTS loyalists.
04:22And so there are a lot of questions that continue to be raised about this.
04:26They're supposed to have a national dialogue originally in the beginning of January, then
04:30it was pushed to mid-January.
04:31Now there's no specific date.
04:33Part of it is a logistical problem, since they didn't realize ruling a whole country
04:37is maybe as difficult as it is compared to just a small area of northwest Syria.
04:42So there's a lot of questions that remain.
04:44Again, it's only been a month.
04:46But so far, in terms of a stability standpoint, overall, I think most people are happier that
04:53there hasn't been sort of this large scale revenge killings against, say, the Alawites
04:59or an Alawite insurgency against the new government.
05:03And so overall, it's a positive, but there's still a lot of things that should be better
05:08that I think many Syrians hope for.
05:10And just to wrap up, how are the former backers of the Assad regime being treated now by the
05:14HTS?
05:15And is there any likelihood that they might coordinate to try and fight back?
05:19Well, there are people that were previously part of the regime that were part of the bureaucracy
05:24of the government that continue to work to this day.
05:27Unlike when the U.S. invaded Iraq, there hasn't been a deep abdication.
05:31He kept the institution so that the state would continue.
05:35HTS is mainly only going after remnants of the regime who have been involved in violence
05:40after the fall of it.
05:42Everybody else that was part of it, they've kind of let live and continue their life and
05:46have been part of sort of this so-called settlement process where they are getting in touch with
05:51the new administration.
05:52So they're aware of who these people are, but they're allowed to live their lives again.
05:55All right, Aaron, thank you for that.
05:57Aaron Zaline speaking to me there from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
06:00Thanks.
