00:00Inflation reports suggest damage from Trump's tariffs isn't guaranteed a run of better-than-expected indicators, including Wednesday's inflation report.
00:08So far point to a strikingly resilient economy.
00:12Why it matters. Those waiting for signs.
00:16Of a tariff-wrecked economy will have to keep waiting.
00:19Economists anticipate President Trump's policies, particularly those related to trade, will weaken growth and raise consumer prices.
00:26But how, when, or even if looks more uncertain than ever.
00:31State of Play
00:32Consider the economic news flow in recent days.
00:36The May Consumer Price Index came in cooler than expected, extending a months-long streak of easing price pressures.
00:44U.S.-China
00:44Trade tensions appear to have simmered down, with Trump touting a deal that will unlock critical minerals for U.S. manufacturers.
00:52Treasury Secretary Scott Besant told lawmakers Wednesday that U.S. tax receipts in May came in almost 15% above, the previous year, despite cuts at the Internal Revenue Service.
01:05Stock prices are approaching record levels, less than 2% below the all-time high reached in February.
01:11The Intrigue
01:13The Wall Street consensus is that a tariff shock will weaken the economy and put upward pressure on inflation.
01:20Economists are just waiting for something to happen, much like
01:23the two characters in the play waiting for Godot.
01:26The huge question is whether the anticipated slowdown, Godot, shows up.
01:32What to watch
01:33Many businesses are running down supplies brought in from overseas before tariffs took effect, shielding consumers from price hikes.
01:41Once that inventory dries up, retailers will have to face tough choices about how much to pass along to customers.
01:47Those front-loading effects have created an economic mirage of sorts, resulting in a demand surge that isn't expected to stick.
01:53Last to see
01:56Week's employment report signaled some underlying weakness in the job market, including a surge of workers leaving the labor force.
02:04It's too soon to tell whether the exodus was a one-off.
02:07A bond market sell-off in recent weeks signaled a reversal of norms that prevailed in the 2010s.
02:13Investors demanding more compensation to hold longer-term debt, a phenomenon partly ignited
02:18by higher deficits signaled by Trump's signature tax legislation,
02:22Interest rates are below peak levels seen at the height of the inflation shock,
02:26but they're still high enough to be considered restrictive on economic activity by many Fed officials.
02:32It's unclear how that extended weight will ripple through the economy.
02:36What they're saying?
02:38Tariff-driven price increases may not feed through to the CPI data for a few more months yet,
02:43so it is far too premature to assume that the price shock will not materialize,
02:48Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in a note.
02:53The bottom line?
02:54The economy has somewhat painlessly adjusted to huge shocks in recent years,
02:59defying naysayers and recession fears.
03:01The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:02The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:03The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:04The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:05The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:06The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:07The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:08The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:09The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:10The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:11The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:12The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:13The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:14The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:15The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:16The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:17The economy has been a long-term debt.
03:18The economy has been a long-term debt.
