00:00For more, Scott Lucas, professor of U.S. and international politics in the Clinton Institute University College, Dublin.
00:10Scott, tell us a bit more. We just heard about Donald Trump's reaction.
00:14He says that he was aware that Israel would strike Iran. What do we know?
00:20Well, I think you had the statement even before these strikes from Donald Trump, who was indicating he thought the attack was imminent and he did not say that Israel should not carry this out.
00:36In effect, Donald Trump gave a green light to these strikes before they occurred.
00:40And in that statement you quoted, he effectively endorsed them by focusing on a warning against Iran's retaliation.
00:48Rather, they're criticizing the Israeli attacks.
00:52So as far as the U.S. is concerned, the Netanyahu government has pretty much a blank check right now with this initial wave of strikes.
01:02Now, what is interesting is, and although you heard from your correspondent in Israel, they're playing this down.
01:08There has been significant criticism from the Arab world, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait, and from European states, from the U.K. and from France, who quite clearly have said that these attacks are not to be supported and indeed are saying there needs to be de-escalation immediately.
01:29We are now in the space, of course, where we are awaiting the Iranian retaliation.
01:35In fact, the first wave of that retaliation has taken place.
01:38Iran launched more than 100 drones at Israel.
01:42Many of them, perhaps almost all of them were intercepted, some of them over Jordan, interestingly enough.
01:47So those attacks have caused little damage inside Israel, and the Israeli authorities have lifted their advisory on citizens, civilians to take shelter.
01:58That leaves us in the question of, however, what comes next?
02:01Does Israel expand these attacks even further?
02:04Having had these high-profile killings of nuclear scientists and military commanders, do they now wait and see what the Iranian response is?
02:12Does Iran try to work through allies, whether it be in Lebanon, Iraq, or in Yemen, to somehow, somehow make a response to the Israelis?
02:21And the U.S. says, Marco Rubio quickly said that the U.S. wasn't involved, but they haven't completely condemned the attack.
02:30As you said, they were playing it down.
02:32Do you think Iran could eventually retaliate against Israeli ally, the United States?
02:39Well, Iran could retaliate against the United States, and there was a message from the Iranian foreign ministry this morning that they hold the U.S. responsible, in other words, complicit in the Israeli attack.
02:51But whether Iran actually does that's a different matter.
02:55When the Iran-backed Iraqi militia in Syria have fired on U.S. bases, the U.S. has hit back.
03:07They've hit back hard, hitting those militia groups.
03:09They have warned Iran.
03:11The Americans have warned Iran, do not target our troops, whatever happens here.
03:15So I'm not expecting the militias to cut loose on the Americans.
03:18If they do, I think it just increases the threat to Iran because the U.S. still retains quite a bit of firepower in the region.
03:25I think the area I'm watching is actually the Houthis insurgents in Yemen, however.
03:29They control much of the country, and they have attacked shipping in the Red Sea in the past, as well as fired missiles at Israel.
03:37So I think the Houthis perhaps are the front line of where an Iranian response could be, which would be indirect, rather than direct assaults by Tehran on the U.S. or on other countries.
03:46And, Scott, where does this leave Iran nuclear talks that were scheduled for this weekend?
03:56They're not happening.
03:58I mean, that's what I think is very interesting about this, that, you know, the official line of the United States going into overnight is, look, Steve Whitcoff, Donald Trump's envoy, was going to hold the sixth set of talks with the Iranians.
04:11There had been increased friction over the question of whether Iran would be allowed to maintain an enrichment program.
04:19But certainly there was still space for negotiation, and Israel has just completely taken that off the table because there's no way, even if the Americans say they'll go to Amman on Sunday, that the Iranians will, because Iran's being put in a position where it has to capitulate.
04:34That raises the question of, did the U.S. know that the Israelis were going to attack and effectively end the talks, or did Israel, in effect, preempt the talks?
04:46Did they, in fact, sort of overtake the Americans, saying, we're going in, whether you like it or not?
04:53And how does the American administration respond where we are not talking about negotiations?
04:58We're talking about a possible escalation of confrontation and even war.
05:02And Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel.
05:08How do you think the U.S. would react in case of a regional war that now seems possibly imminent?
05:17Well, I think the first question is we wouldn't know how that regional war would take shape.
05:23Iran's allies in the region, as your viewers will know, have been significantly degraded over the past year by Israeli attacks.
05:33Hezbollah has lost most of its commanders in Lebanon.
05:38Hamas, of course, is under the ongoing Israeli assault in Gaza.
05:42You have seen operatives knocked out by the Israelis in targeted assassinations.
05:50So I'm not sure what the capabilities are for Iran's allies to respond.
05:55I think at this point, and your correspondent from Tehran, I think, tipped this off, which is the Iranians are not going to launch a major escalation at this point, either directly or through allies.
06:05They're going to review the situation, they're going to claim that they are the victim here, which I have to say they are, and they're going to try to play for political support initially before trying to escalate any type of military confrontation, which forces the hands of the Americans, as well as gives the Israelis a pretext to hit even harder against Iranian targets.
