00:00For more on this, I can welcome in a senior analyst on jihad and modern conflict at International Crisis Group, Jérôme Drevon.
00:08Good morning, Jérôme, and thank you for joining us.
00:11This has been a fairly hefty attack by Israel on Iran, but it's not something that really took anybody by surprise.
00:22No, indeed. There were a lot of signs for the past week, specifically from the U.S., from Israel and from other countries in the region, that something could be happening.
00:35In particular, the U.S. was withdrawing some of its personnel from its embassy in Iraq.
00:39But nobody really was certain whether this was just a way to put pressure on Iran to say that the alternative, the military alternative, is on the table,
00:50to pressure them to be back on the table and to make concessions in the forthcoming talk in Oman that was scheduled this weekend.
00:58But apparently it was more serious than that.
01:00So are you suggesting then that perhaps Washington maybe gave its blessing, so to speak, to this attack or did Israel go on its own on it?
01:12I think Israel took its own decision, but they did coordinate with the U.S.
01:16in the sense that they informed the U.S. beforehand that some attacks were coming.
01:22Now the U.S. is saying that they didn't know the full scale of the attacks.
01:25In particular, they didn't know that the heads of Iran's military and paramilitary forces would be attacked.
01:33So that was a question mark for the U.S.
01:36And Israel clearly stands to benefit the most from these strikes.
01:43What about what other actors, either within the region or elsewhere?
01:48For instance, some European countries have not been quite so happy with it, particularly the United Kingdom.
01:56What do you think the reaction is going to be from Europe and perhaps elsewhere in the Middle East?
02:03I don't think the Europeans will take much action.
02:06They will simply ask for an absence of escalation.
02:12They will ask for the Iranians not to strike back at Israel.
02:15They will ask for the Israelis to stop their military offensive.
02:18But that's going to have very, very little impact on the Israeli decision making.
02:25Similarly, Gulf countries could have supported such an attack a few years ago, but their position had changed by now.
02:33Now they're not looking for an escalation either.
02:35Most Gulf countries were actually looking for a settlement with Iran through a renewal of a new nuclear deal.
02:44So Gulf countries are probably not very happy with it, specifically because they are fearing the type of reaction from Iran.
02:51Will Iran strike U.S. forces in the region?
02:54Will they strike Gulf countries themselves?
02:56All of that, again, is on the line for them.
02:59Thank you very much for that, Jérôme Dreyvon, a senior analyst on jihad and modern conflict at the International Crisis Group.
03:05Thank you very much for that, Jérôme Dreyvon.
