00:00Now, in the last few hours, Israel's military says it has approved a plan for a new Gaza
00:06offensive. That is, the military continues to prepare for a broader offensive in the territory.
00:11It comes as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has revived calls to, as he put it,
00:15allow Palestinians to leave the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu insisting Israel would not be pushing
00:21people out, but instead letting people leave if they want to. Last time, when Netanyahu proposed
00:27the idea, he was met with a barrage of criticism, notably from many of his worldwide allies.
00:32Well, let's hear from him.
00:36The right thing to do, according to the laws of war, also as I know them, is to allow the
00:40population to leave, and then you go in with all your might against the enemy who remains there,
00:44in this case terrorists, and we will do that.
00:49Benjamin Netanyahu there. We're joining me now is Israeli political commentator Dr. Ori Goldberg.
00:54Thanks very much for being with us on the programme today. So, if this plan we heard
00:58at the top there has been approved by Israel's military, do you think this means that the
01:02obvious widely reported splits between what Benjamin Netanyahu wants to do and what the
01:08army says is possible or desirable has been sorted, or if not sorted altogether, at least
01:13papered over?
01:15Well, I don't think there was ever really a split with regard to the plan that we're talking
01:20about. There was a split because the IDF chief of staff, General El Zamir, understands that
01:26if something would go wrong during the execution of this plan, he would be the one who would
01:32be blamed. Official Israel is now jockeying for position, not with regard to a total victory
01:38as promised by Netanyahu, but with regard to the almost inevitable catastrophic defeat.
01:44Nobody wants to be the one left holding the hot potato when this explodes in Israel's face,
01:50as it no doubt, no doubtedly will. And the split is not about ideology. It's not about
01:55the notion of carrying out this campaign one step forward or about ethnically cleansing
02:01Gaza. It's about who's ultimately going to be held responsible by the rest of the world.
02:05But if the army then is worried about what this could mean, presumably it's going to be very
02:10difficult for Netanyahu to just go ahead with it. Well, to be quite frank, I don't know if Netanyahu
02:17ever thought that he would be able to go ahead with it. Nobody in Israel is expecting it to begin
02:22anytime soon. General El Zamir himself said that everything must be very carefully checked,
02:29all aspects of the program, legal, logistical, and added some more. I don't think anybody is
02:35expecting this to start anytime soon or quickly. I think everybody is doing their due diligence to
02:41carry on this game of chicken, but it's a completely domestic Israeli game. It's not about
02:46anybody else. So I don't think we'll be seeing the invasion or the fourth or fifth invasion of
02:52Gaza City begin today or tomorrow. I doubt we'll see it during this month. I think everybody in
02:58Israel is waiting for the other shoe to drop around the world, understanding that Israel really
03:04is planning to carry out ethnic cleansing and a list of other war crimes and crimes against humanity
03:09approved by the prime minister in the Israeli cabinet. And nobody's quite sure what's going
03:13to happen. The only thing everyone is sure of is that it's going to ultimately be bad for
03:18official Israel. That's what you would call it, is it? Ethnic cleansing?
03:23I would, yes. I don't think you've played anything else. This announced ethnic cleansing,
03:27according to the driest, most formalistic legal definitions I know. And this was approved
03:32by Israel's cabinet and initiated by Israel's prime minister. I think that realization is
03:38sinking in. Israel has been used to decades of absolute impunity. I now think it knows it cannot
03:45operate with this impunity any longer. The issue is this has never happened. He's quite sure what the
03:50repercussions will be, which is why, to return to my earlier thought, the only thing that ultimately
03:57matters is who's left holding the hot potato. We've had the army as well warning a week ago now,
04:03really, that these plans could mean large numbers of casualties. Presumably that would be a major
04:09concern as well. Large numbers of casualties and also dead hostages, which is something General
04:16Zemir has said very clearly. But again, I have to stress this. I can't overstress this. The army is
04:23not doing this because it doesn't support the reoccupation of Gaza. The army is in this to prove
04:30its mettle, and it has failed abysmally over the last 22 months in carrying out Israel's stated war
04:36goals, which were to destroy Hamas and return the hostages. General Zemir wants a victory. So does his
04:41general staff. Problem is, General Zemir knows that this plan that has been approved by the Israeli
04:47cabinet, which is an extremist cabinet, a right-wing cabinet, this plan will bring about the death of
04:53the very few hostages still living. He also understands that should this happen, he will be
04:58the one blamed by the prime minister. Prime Minister Netanyahu has yet to take responsibility for anything
05:03since October 7, 2023. So this isn't a disagreement about whether Israel should be committing
05:09these crimes, these war crimes and crimes against humanity. It's a disagreement about
05:13who's ultimately going to be held responsible. There's a lot of other pressure as well, isn't
05:17there, building on Benjamin Netanyahu, notably a bit of a change in public opinion in Israel of
05:23ordinary citizens. We've also had protests, for example, of over 200 retired reserve air force
05:30pilots rallying the IDF headquarters to protest against the war as well. Presumably that's all ramping up
05:36pressure as well. There is some change, and it's very slow, but I have to, again, stress, I think,
05:43what is the most important point. True, several hundred reserve pilots have demonstrated outside the
05:49defense ministry and the prime minister's office, but not a single pilot has yet to refuse to carry out
05:56the bombings, which are now generally understood to be massively illegal. So as long as that doesn't
06:02happen, as long as these demonstrations are held by reservists, as long as this wave of protest is
06:08motivated and led by individuals and has no institutional backing, like, for example, Israel's
06:14largest trade union, which refused to join the general strike plan for Sunday, as long as there's
06:20no institutional backing, this will remain the same protest we've seen over the last four or five
06:26years. It's a protest against Netanyahu. It's a domestic Israeli political struggle. It's not a call to end the
06:32war. It's not a call against ethnic cleansing or the other war crimes that Israel is about to commit.
06:37And for precisely that reason, it is effectively an affirmation of Netanyahu's policy. As long as
06:44these protesters are not calling out publicly against the execution of Netanyahu's policy,
06:50they are effectively affirming it. Netanyahu knows this very well, which is why he's allowing these
06:55protests to go on. He is still the strongest candidate in Israel to emerge as prime minister,
07:00should a snap election be called over the next several months.
07:04Good to talk to you on the program today. Thanks very much for being with us, Dr. Ori Goldberger,
07:08Israeli political commentator. Thank you for having me. Thank you.
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