- 11 months ago
According to market experts, the latest rally in gold is not driven by jewellery demand or fresh buying by central banks. Instead, it is largely linked to fears around global debt and unstable bond markets, especially in countries like Japan and the US.
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NewsTranscript
00:00all right just before 9 we get to all the market action this morning let's come down to the
00:21headlines and then take a look at how we're kicking off trade for the day here's what's
00:25moving in the corporate and financial world this morning the competition Commission of India
00:30finally starts probe into Indigo's alleged abuse of market dominance reports say the regulator has
00:35sought details from the airline in connection with its probe which is expected to look into
00:40exploitative conduct by the airline during its recent flight disruptions growth in India's
00:50eight core infrastructure sectors sharply down from last year at just 1.8 percent in November
00:56but higher than 0.1 percent in October an RBI report meanwhile says the government's continued focus on
01:03macro fundamentals and economic reforms is the key to keeping the economy growing strongly in the face
01:09of global challenges Adani group begins consolidating its cement business Zambuja Cements approves the
01:20merger of ACC and Orient cement with itself ACC shareholders to get 328 shares for every 100 held
01:28Orient cement shareholders to get 33 shares for every 100 held Adani group says the move will unlock
01:34economies of scale and create a pan India cement powerhouse in a big move weight-loss drugs in pill
01:44form get regulatory approval the US Food and Drug Administration greenlights Novo Nordisk semaglutide
01:50pill for weight loss the 25 mg drug has the same active ingredient as Vigavi and Ozembic Novo stock jumps
01:588 percent on the FDA approval US markets extend gains Nvidia Micron and Oracle boost S&P 500 and Nasdaq gold
02:13and silver soar to new highs as safe-haven assets positive start expected for Indian markets with the
02:19gift nifty up let's take a closer look at those gold and silver prices soaring to new highs has
02:34absolutely been no stopping the precious metal and in fact the MCX gold hitting a new high record
02:41they're opening at 1.38 lakhs surging about 1500 there let's take a look there you have it on your
02:48screen and we've also had MCX silver surging 3,000 rupees trading at 2.16 lakh rupees that's a record
02:55high coming in and it's really just been from strength to strength and while silver of course
03:00has been far outpacing even gold gold this morning catching up and also trading or hitting those record
03:06highs we've got Shailendra Patnagar joining us we've also got Kunal Shah head of Commodity Research at
03:12Nirmal Bank let me go across to Kunal on those gold prices first Kunal take us through exactly what's
03:19happening we're heading into the end of the year would you call this safe haven or would you call
03:23this perhaps some other kind of structural demand what's causing the build-up on the precious metals
03:28I believe that what we are seeing is a fear of complete monetary reset the way the western world's debt and
03:38what especially what recently the recent upside in gold is basically on account of what we saw in you
03:46know happening in Japan even after the interest rate hike we've seen bond yields shooting up and making a
03:53fresh ice this generally doesn't happen so market is not ready to accept that inflation is going to go
03:59down okay so my sense is that this is more to do with what is happening in the global bond market that
04:11is indicating that the inflation is going to shoot up in times to come especially in the western part of
04:18the world and investors are having no choice but to hedge themselves uh they are seen buying gold so
04:25this is not driven by the jewelry demand this is not driven by uh central bank buying lately this is
04:31purely investors rushing to hedge their risk which can arise from the instable bond markets in Japan in the
04:40US and that's why they are seen buying gold so 45 50 4600 looks very likely and for for gold and silver 72 to 75
04:50dollars so from here you should taper down your return expectation but the trend definitely seems to be uh pretty
04:57strong okay so taper down return expectation that was just going to ask you on the price action there uh so just to recap you know from an
05:05investor point of view who's looking at this run up um too late to get in at this point i would say uh
05:14for investor uh if you are still expecting 15 20 return from here then i i don't mind and you can
05:23whenever you see after this kind of run up without any reason if there is any profit taking you can add a bit more
05:29for that so i would say still you know you can remain invested in gold uh there is nothing
05:36fundamentally bearish there is nothing going to be bearish for gold at least in in a shorter term
05:41we are not going to see any major bearish reasons all right great thanks so much for joining us with that
05:46Kunal gold and silver prices soaring to those new highs and as Kunal said primarily to do with
05:51a lot of different macroeconomic uh factors and money market factors not really on the back of investment demand
05:57but if you're an investor in the precious metals you're probably laughing all the way to the bank
06:02right now shell good morning counting down to market opening how's the setup looking
06:10well there is a crisis of plenty firstly good morning and a very warm welcome to everyone uh
06:16today being the last day of december's expiry uh we have a very very strong market last three days
06:23have added 500 574 points to the nifty and it is still looking better reliance lnt bharati airtel
06:34amongst the nifty stocks that are doing immensely well and among indices there has been a very strong
06:40breakout and a strong bullish crossover in nsc 100 the total market index the micro cap 250 and of course
06:49the nifty next 50 so mid caps micro caps large caps all are participating in this santa rally people have
06:57to get in over the last four days fii's have put in about 3300 crore rupees which is a major major major
07:06positive we are looking for good times ahead it does look good this morning let's take a look at this
07:11opening take so sadly we're just flat on opening we thought would have been seeing a little bit more
07:15action overnight we saw some positive moves on wall street with tech back in action so let's pull up
07:20those it stocks today and see how we're trending on that front but on the index right now it's just flat
07:26at this point of time just a marginal green tick coming in across the nifty bank across the mid cap
07:31indices let's pull up some of those uh counters okay it is not in action so we're clearly not following
07:36the global trend let's pull up some of those cement majors on the back of the merger news uh with regards to
07:41um ambuja acc we've got that big merger news coming in and i think uh if i take a look at some of those
07:48stocks orient is moving up and we've also got i think ambuja moving up let's pull it up for you acc is
07:54quiet but uh pull up an ambuja pull up an orient and we've got a lot of action on those cement majors
07:59this morning and we'll take that through uh with our guest also in just a moment so ambuja cement also up
08:06about three percent today so for those of you invested in any of those cement companies big
08:10merger and that of course will lead to that of course will lead to some amount of uh restructuring
08:18in terms of your shares and investments within those companies so uh shell let's just talk about
08:22that for a moment acc ambuja orient it's a pretty big consolidation uh call that's coming in from adani
08:29when it comes to cement majors absolutely abha and just yesterday i was speaking to a very large
08:38institutional pair and he mentioned cement as being one of the sectors where he would pour in fresh
08:44money from his clients but keep an eye out on ramco cement keep an eye out on india cement as also
08:52ambuja and acc of course those are new news driven but india cement is top of the pops as far as cement
09:00is concerned december the monsoon was extended therefore the quarterly numbers would be lower
09:06but that would be an opportunity for long-term players to get into stocks like ultra set uh my
09:13apologies ultra cement ultra tech cement and of course ramco cement keep an eye out on india cements
09:19already at a record high okay okay so cement is definitely in action today let's pull up some
09:26of the other news makers as well and see what else is reacting this morning remember we've got the new
09:31zealand fda in progress so a little bit of action might be there on some of those agri names let's
09:36pull that up for you and see if there's any reaction on that front uh we're also tracking metals obviously
09:41on the back of gold silver and the kind of traction we're seeing there um it not reactive this morning
09:48and uh to some extent of course we'll also be tracking jewelry on the back of those gold prices
09:52so uh let's pull that up for you as well and take a look in terms of whether or not we're seeing any of
09:57the jewelry counters or even the financiers gold financiers uh reacting this morning meanwhile
10:03on the back of some brokerage views morgan standard number just cement is overweight target price of 650
10:09and they're keeping in mind of course the entire merger as well and they do see operational efficiencies
10:15unlocked on that front hsbc on power saying that um they are expecting you know some amount of a
10:23rebound in early december and morgan standing on pine labs has an equal weight while namura has a buy
10:30on samvardhana with a target of 125 so namura on you know samvardhana let's pull that up for you
10:37target price of 125 and morgan standing on pine labs the target price there's 260 that's an equal
10:42weight coming in on pine labs this morning no major reaction on either of those at this point of time
10:48sriram finance of course has been the other major stock in news remember it's got brokerage calls
10:54coming in across the board lots of buy calls now of course we've also learned that the company may
10:58cut interest rates by as much as 100 basis points over the next couple of years flush with about 4.4
11:04billion dollars from japan's mufg the non-banking finance committee sees lower rates being driven by a
11:10stronger balance sheet lower leverage and a possible credit rating upgrade the company has meanwhile
11:16clarified it's not looking for a banking license listen what are you going to do with the money
11:22is the big question sir are you going to do for go for expansion plans or opening up more physical stores
11:27or uh and and looking to acquire more brands what is the pipeline we would prefer to grow organically
11:35we will definitely add more branches we have a rural centers around 600 we may add another 150
11:40branches every year now onwards so that will give some kind of a bigger reach for us not only that
11:48we also feel that there is enough scope and opportunity to grow in our existing business and
11:55both together we should be able to manage it much better a lot of conversations happening around
12:00about the banking license are you looking at it we are not definitely looking at it and either
12:04they are partner or we never discussed on becoming a bank and gst cut has definitely given a boost to
12:11the economy uh your green portfolio is also one of the examples for that i want to ask you how's the
12:16lending in that spacing and of course uh how's the auto sector doing it and with respect to your
12:21department for logistics any gst cut benefits have you foreseen sir what is the growth margin you see
12:25gst cut has really helped sentiment of the people uh there is a higher growth uh in the sales especially
12:33in october november we saw quite a big jump in the sale for all category of vehicles and similarly with
12:40electric vehicle so in green financing we do have ambitious plan right now we are doing around 100
12:45cores per month it should double in the next year so we believe that growth will be much faster in green
12:51place all right uh let's take a look at some more news makers we've got puruvankara that's buzzing
12:57let's pull that one up for you they have acquired a 53 acre land parcel in bengaluru with a gdb of
13:04about 4800 crores the stock is spiking up about four percent there five and a half now actually looking
13:10good this morning you know shell real estate has just been on fire puruvankara today of course seeing
13:16a phenomenal move earnings have been solid we're now heading in of course for a fresh quarterly reporting
13:21of earnings but it has seemed to be all systems go when it comes to the real estate counters
13:26prestigious stage in fact has also acquired a 25 acre land parcel in chennai with a revenue potential
13:31of 5000 crores i don't know if that one's reacting this morning but this is the kind of
13:36news and development buzz that we've been seeing across some of the key real estate counters
13:40uh yes abha but these are you know all uh flashes in the pan which are news driven uh if viewers or
13:52traders are looking for sense and sensibility then the psu pack uh including railways including defense
14:02and including public sector banks is offering a very very strong opportunity railways and defense
14:10ahead of the first february budget therefore the run-up has already started remember these were
14:16beaten down stocks and of course psu banks led by canada bank bank of baroda sbi and of course indian
14:24bank these are stocks to look forward to and buy the dip of course consult your own technical and
14:29financial advisor abha okay let me also bring up for you uh bell rise industries we've had about
14:39close to 900 crores change hands in a pre-opened block window so bell rise that's the move you're
14:44seeing on that counter let's pull that up for you very quickly there you have it that's why that
14:49stock's moving like that we've also got a whole bunch of nbfc's that are moving right now let's pull
14:55those up for you as well and you know we talked about sriram finance already uh but we're seeing it
15:01we're seeing that buzz pretty much across the board and i want to bring up uh gold financiers
15:06mudhut manapuram uh just to see whether they're buzzing because that would primarily be on gold
15:10of course jola investment is up about six percent right now as well so giving you a sense of the
15:16action coming in there um you know shell it's really it's really no surprise i mean this is a
15:21this is a pretty favored part of the market but are valuations looking kind of stretched now or do we
15:27intend to continue to see record moves when it comes to some of these nbfc's
15:31well abha i think the consensus trade since first of april when we had the rate cut by the
15:41reserve bank of india and a massive one half a percentage points that was when the rally started
15:47in most nbfc's including bajaj finance chola mandalam finance and of course the current market
15:54favorite uh sriram finance and then there were a series of uh you know stake purchases especially
16:01in uh sriram finance and large block deals that happened in lnt finance and ab capital
16:07so this is a consensus trade uh it is ongoing and let's see when the party stops but for sriram finance
16:14remember this is already a five is to one split so what you see as 940 is roughly 4600 on
16:23the price and still there is no shopping stopping it because uh muft and now enters and japanese
16:30players have deep deep deep pockets with very low cost of money and that is what is changing the
16:38dynamics of sriram finance abha okay that's on sriram finance um let's take a look at uh investec they've
16:49initiated a coverage on canada hsbc life insurance with a buy and they put a target of 225 calling
16:54it a mispriced opportunity let's pull that one up for you canada hsbc live and it's up five percent
16:59today um they've said it's a relatively low risk way to play india's structural life insurance growth
17:05and the stock is just spiking you know we had some of these insurance counters and news a little while
17:10ago but this spike is coming in about a week 10 days later is this purely on the brokerage view
17:15investec initiating that coverage 225 it's at 139 right now shell is that what's driving the stock
17:25uh abha there is another major major uh drive that is uh behind canada hsbc and canada rebeco
17:33remember the psu uh banking uh merger plan by the government of india well canada bank is going to
17:41emerge as one of uh these surviving banks uh that is what analysts are telling me at least and that
17:49essentially means that canada rebeco amc and canada hsbc life will get a wider branch network to sell
17:59their products remember they were priced very well in the market and the 100 fdi in the insurance bill
18:07recently passed by the parliament is adding a lot of flavor not only to canada hsbc life look at sbi life
18:14so these are the major drivers the tailwinds that are behind the insurance sector abha especially the
18:20psu insurance sector all right all right that's an interesting move coming in there on um on these
18:30counters this morning let's recap for you of course some of the major news so far we've got metals in
18:37focus once again we've got gold and silver at record highs uh we've got some of these the key
18:43life insurance names uh uh moving as well in the sun copper from the metal spy again one and a half
18:48percent up so constant move coming in there the cement merger so clearly ambuja acc orient in focus
18:55there as well that's the big news on that front and of course a whole host of names from the broader
19:01markets as well keep an eye on some of these uh themes as they develop through the day we'll be back
19:06with you at three o'clock to take you through market close thanks for watching