- 11 months ago
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00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend, covering Christmas, covering the rest of 2025 and the start of next year.
00:08And we're likely to end the year on a high, high pressure, which is fitting because we've spent much of the year talking about high pressure,
00:16not only high pressure, but high temperatures. It has, of course, been the UK's warmest year on record.
00:20It's also been the UK's sunniest year on record.
00:24Hard to believe all that sunshine we experienced when the last few months have been so wet.
00:29But here's a throwback to spring 2025, the pressure anomaly close to the UK, much higher than average pressure throughout that season.
00:38No wonder it was the warmest spring on record and the sunniest spring on record.
00:43In fact, between January and August, six out of eight months, we experienced higher than average pressure near the UK.
00:51But that all changed in September. This is the pressure anomaly for autumn 2025.
00:55For the last few months, we've been talking about low pressure after low pressure because of a powerful jet stream, bringing in frequent depressions from the Atlantic.
01:05This, though, is the new shape of the jet stream, with the weather flipping once more for the final week of the year.
01:11The jet stream now in a much more amplified pattern across the northern hemisphere, allowing high pressure to form close to the UK.
01:20That high pressure developing as we go into Christmas to the northeast of the UK.
01:25But there are a couple of complications, one being a branch of the jet stream picking up a cold source of air near the continent
01:34and tightening up the isobars close to the UK, leading to increasingly strong winds for December the 25th.
01:42That's why we've issued a yellow wind warning.
01:45Now, at the Met Office, we don't base weather warnings on thresholds.
01:49We base them on impacts.
01:50And when it comes to impacts, context is key.
01:54So, these kinds of wind speeds, 50, 55 miles an hour, around exposed parts of Welsh mountains, Welsh coast, southwest England, for example,
02:03wouldn't necessarily cause the kinds of impacts that we're expecting on a typical Thursday in December.
02:10But, of course, it's not a typical Thursday.
02:12It's Christmas Day.
02:12People out walking in the hills, people jumping in the sea on a Christmas Day swim.
02:18So, it is worth flagging the possibility of these kinds of winds coming in on an unusual direction,
02:25northeast of these 50, 55 miles an hour, accompanied by large waves around the coast.
02:31Worth flagging that for anyone who's got outdoor activities planned.
02:37But, that wind is bringing in clearer air at the same time.
02:42So, plenty of sunshine to start off Christmas Day.
02:44Plenty of blue skies, some patchy cloud into the North Sea coast.
02:48But, otherwise, for many, it's a dry and bright day.
02:52There is one area that we're keeping a close eye on.
02:55This area of showery precipitation in the far southwest could affect the Scillies,
03:01could affect the far southwest of Cornwall, for example.
03:04Most likely rain at lower levels.
03:06But, if it bumps into higher parts, such as Bodmin Moor, for example,
03:11always a chance of a flake or two of snow.
03:13Of course, for the Met Office definition, that's all you need for a technical white Christmas.
03:17But, for the vast majority, it is a dry and bright Christmas Day,
03:21albeit a windy and a cold Christmas Day.
03:24Five or six Celsius on the thermometer.
03:26But, these are the feels-like temperatures in the afternoon.
03:30Minus one Celsius in the south.
03:32Bear that in mind if you're heading out.
03:34Wrap up warm.
03:36Now, Boxing Day, more of the same.
03:38Still got that easterly wind in the south.
03:40Not quite as strong, but still feeling cold.
03:43Plenty of bright weather.
03:45Areas of cloud here and there.
03:46Southwestern parts, for example, in the northeast,
03:49in between plenty of sunny skies.
03:51Temperatures, typically five or six Celsius.
03:54Add on that wind, one, two Celsius at best,
03:58in terms of feels-like temperatures.
04:01And why is that?
04:02Because where the air is coming from is coming all the way from the Arctic,
04:05via parts of Finland, western Russia, through Europe.
04:09These are cold places at this time of year.
04:12It's coming in over the continent, so it doesn't warm up over the sea.
04:15But, if we compare that with Saturday, the 27th of December,
04:20well, a day or so before, the air is coming from the east.
04:24But if you trace all the way back several days before,
04:27that's what these lines show,
04:28the air is coming from northern Canada.
04:31Now, northern Canada at this time of year is cold.
04:33It then pushes into green and also cold.
04:35But it does spend some time over the sea.
04:38The sea not quite as cold as it might be at the end of winter.
04:41Sea temperatures are above average at the time of year.
04:44So, with it meandering around over the sea,
04:48spending some time over water,
04:50it's not going to be quite as cold,
04:52in terms of its air source,
04:54as Christmas Day and Boxing Day.
04:56The reason that air source is changing
04:58is because the position and the orientation of the high pressure is changing.
05:01It's drifting from the northeast towards the northwest of the UK.
05:05Not only that, but it's strengthening.
05:06This is a very high area of high pressure.
05:09Here is the probability that pressure will exceed 1,045 hectopascals.
05:15You can see greatest chance, somewhere near the Faroes,
05:19of pressure being between 1,045 and 1,050.
05:23Unusually high pressure for this time of year in this part of the world.
05:28Some station records across northern Scotland could be broken.
05:33Some local spots could see their highest December pressure on record.
05:37But the UK record unlikely to be broken.
05:41So, a very large area of high pressure sitting to the north of the UK
05:44with air coming around it from the Atlantic and arriving in from the east.
05:49We've still got this east to northeasterly wind
05:51across much of the south and the east on Saturday.
05:56It's still going to bring areas of cloud in,
05:58increasingly so I suspect, with more of an oceanic source.
06:02But there'll be some breaks in that cloud.
06:04It's a thin layer of cloud.
06:05It's fickle.
06:06It's likely to break up in places.
06:08So, the greatest chance of cloud towards the east and central parts,
06:11greatest chance of sunshine coming through towards the west.
06:14Temperature's a little bit higher compared with the next couple of days,
06:16seven or eight Celsius for many.
06:18It's actually going to be colder this time over parts of Scotland.
06:21And that's actually the theme through the weekend,
06:23turning colder in Scotland, less cold further south.
06:26Because we've got clear skies over Scotland,
06:29much of central and western Scotland certainly,
06:31lighter winds, overnight frosts will form.
06:35And with those overnight frosts forming and some freezing fog patches,
06:38some spots are likely to stay below freezing through the day
06:43across parts of central and northern Scotland.
06:46Further south, more likely six or seven Celsius.
06:48Not far from average for the time of year.
06:52Now, heading into the rest of the week, into the start of next week,
06:58it's staying dry.
06:59Just to give you an impression, hammer home how dry it's likely to be.
07:02This is the rolling rainfall total through the next five days.
07:06Christmas Day, Boxing Day, into the weekend,
07:08some faint colours showing up there.
07:11Likely overdone, actually, in the modelling.
07:13Just indicative of one or two drizzly showers coming in from the east
07:16with that thin layer of cloud.
07:18Otherwise, the white effectively highlights no rain
07:22for virtually everyone between now and the end of the weekend.
07:26And it's likely to stay that way into the start of next week.
07:30But the high pressure is on the move.
07:32It's drifting out towards the west.
07:34And by Monday, Tuesday, we start to see some question marks
07:39about wind direction, because that will all come down
07:42to exactly where that high pressure will sit.
07:45It looks like there could be some colder weather
07:46coming into the north of Scotland for a time early next week.
07:49Less cold elsewhere.
07:51But after that, where that high pressure sits
07:55will make a big difference in terms of UK-wide temperatures.
07:59And I'm talking about the change in weather pattern
08:03through the change in year.
08:05Will the high pressure sit just to the west of the UK
08:08or just to the southwest of the UK?
08:10Those are the two scenarios we're looking at
08:13for New Year's Eve onwards, effectively.
08:16And this probability plot shows the most likely weather pattern
08:19for the next couple of weeks.
08:20And you can see, well, very confident,
08:24a lot of confidence from the computer models
08:27for this kind of weather pattern.
08:29High pressure to the north right the way through until 2026.
08:33But then, first couple of days of 2026,
08:37another weather pattern is in the mix.
08:40And these two scenarios are coming through in the modelling.
08:45There's not a great deal of difference
08:47in the grand scheme of things between these two scenarios.
08:51But at a UK level, it does make a difference.
08:54Now, the first scenario is that high pressure will push out to the west
08:59and sit just to the west of the UK there
09:01and allow a northerly to arrive for the start of the year next year
09:06with low pressure to the east.
09:08That would bring significantly colder weather,
09:11with arctic winds, sleet and snow showers into the north and the east
09:16and a marked decline in temperatures.
09:19But the other scenario that's coming through in the modelling
09:23is for the high pressure not to sit there,
09:25but to sit further south, to the southwest of the UK.
09:28And in this scenario, this is one of the computer model runs
09:32from the European model.
09:33The other one was another computer model run.
09:36In this scenario, winds are coming in from the west-northwest.
09:40They're much less cold.
09:41In fact, these are the kinds of temperatures we'd expect
09:43on the 2nd of January if this scenario came off 9, 10, 11 Celsius.
09:50So a bit milder compared with the start of next week.
09:54The colder scenario where we get the arctic winds,
09:57well, that looks something a bit more...
10:02I've gone past it,
10:03but it effectively showed 0 to 3 Celsius across the UK.
10:10This, though, is the most likely temperature across the UK
10:15for the 2nd of January.
10:16Those two scenarios are at both ends of the spectrum.
10:22These are the most likely temperatures,
10:24not far from average,
10:25similar to the start of next week.
10:26Because that north-to-north-eastery wind direction solution
10:33where you've got winds from the arctic
10:35is considered a 20% to 30% chance.
10:39It's more likely that our winds will come in
10:41from the west-northwest around the top
10:44of an area of high pressure sitting to the southwest.
10:46That would bring increasingly changeable conditions
10:49to the north of the UK
10:51with some outbreaks of rain and so on.
10:53But, on the whole,
10:56temperatures wouldn't deviate far from average.
10:59So, heading into the rest of the year.
11:05Apologies for some glitches in the graphics there,
11:07but, yeah, it seemed to freeze a little bit.
11:10Hopefully you got the gist.
11:12At the turn of the year,
11:14there are two scenarios coming through
11:16in the computer modelling.
11:17One is for a cold northerly,
11:19arctic winds,
11:20wintry showers in the north and the east.
11:22That is considered a 20% to 30% chance.
11:26More likely is for a north-west of the airflow
11:29around the top of an area of high pressure
11:31sitting to the southwest of the UK.
11:33That would bring temperatures close to average
11:35or a touch below.
11:37And it would bring some outbreaks of rain,
11:40some weather fronts into the north of the UK.
11:41But for many, it's going to stay dry
11:44with higher pressure remaining close to the UK.
11:47So, a settled start to the new year,
11:50most likely,
11:52before perhaps things get more changeable
11:54through the first week.
11:56We'll keep you updated on all of that
11:57on our YouTube channel as ever.
11:59That's me for 2025.
12:01Thank you for all of your support this year.
12:04I hope you have a peaceful Christmas
12:06and a happy new year.
12:07Bye-bye.