00:00Hi, welcome back to Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris. Let's continue our conversation about the
00:16fallout from the U.S.'s abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Joining me on the show
00:22now is Dr. Adrian Ng, who is a Research Fellow and Coordinator of the U.S. Program at Nanyang
00:27Technological University's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Adrian, thanks so much for
00:33being on the show with me today. So, looking back at the events of the past few days, Donald Trump has
00:38said that the U.S. could run the country, quote-unquote, until there is a proper transition
00:45in place. What do you think that suggests about Washington's endgame in Venezuela?
00:53Hi, Melissa. Thanks for having me on. I think, you know, right now it is vague as to what exactly
01:01the Trump administration's endgame is in Venezuela. So, I think a lot of people were, at least the
01:14Venezuela, right, sort of exile community, I think, right, sort of went from elation when they heard
01:21that, right, Maduro, right, had been renditioned, you know, but then they sort of got disappointed when
01:29they heard that, you know, this was not regime change per se, right, since his vice president was now,
01:37has now been sworn into office. So, at least it appears that regime change, right, is not on the
01:44immediate cards. And, right, sort of, they are all, the Trump administration, I think, has also learned
01:51from, right, sort of past interventions that, right, regime change and, right, quote-unquote,
01:59nation-building, right, is not acceptable to, right, large chunks of their bases. So, right now, right,
02:07sort of, they are keeping it vague as to, right, sort of, what is going to be the endgame, right? So,
02:14the goal for the Rodriguez administration is that, right, sort of, they want cooperation and they want
02:22oil to flow, right? So, that is, is, has basically been the Trump administration's demands so far,
02:30right? And any, any talk about a transition to, right, a different administration has been kicked
02:37down the camp, down the road. Okay, so, so he, Donald Trump, had mentioned U.S. oil companies could
02:44be looking into moving into Venezuela. Talk to me a little bit about how central energy
02:51and economic interests are here. What, what, how are you reading the fact of oil?
03:00So, the president has mentioned oil a lot, right? So, the, the, the argument, right, sort of, that this
03:08is really a, a drug operation now has been put, right, sort of, aside even as, as, right, Maduro has been
03:16inducted in, in, in, in a court in New York. But the problem I, I, I see is there's, there's a
03:25disjuncture between how President Trump views Venezuela and its oil resources and oil companies
03:34themselves, right? Because, right, this comes at a time where, right, sort of, oil prices are relatively low.
03:41And if we look at Venezuela's oil resources, even though it has, right, sort of, the largest proven
03:49reserves in the world, right, Venezuela oil is of the heavy variety, right? It is not light sweet crude.
03:57So, it needs a lot of, of refinement, right, sort of, before it can be used for, right, aviation fuel,
04:04gasoline, right, for, for, for cars, etc. And when you add on top the,
04:11Venezuela's oil infrastructure has been degraded over the last 20 years, right, sort of,
04:16after Hugo Chavez took over and nationalized Venezuela's oil industry, right, sort of,
04:22the oil industry in Venezuela requires large amounts of investment to get oil flowing again. So,
04:30it is still unclear whether American oil companies will follow the President's lead, right, sort of,
04:36to invest in Venezuela's oil sector to get oil flowing again.
04:43So, that could be quite a large investment and could take some time. Adrian, you said a bit earlier,
04:50I'm curious to know about the US, the domestic US perspective. There hasn't been a lot of appetite in the
04:56past few years about US intervention on foreign ground, given its history. So, what do you think,
05:05what political calculations do you think are at play here for Trump when he is thinking about the
05:12impact it might have on domestic politics?
05:15So, we, we have some sort of snapshot on that since, right, sort of, Reuters has a poll, right,
05:25over the weekend and the results came out yesterday. And again, right, in our, in America's, right,
05:32sort of polarized times, it is not surprising that Republicans overwhelmingly approve of what the
05:38president has done and independents and Democrats do not. So, I think if we just look at the Republicans
05:47and Trump's, right, sort of market base, him sort of being vague about what the end state is, right,
05:54sort of now at least certainly deferring from putting US troops on the ground in Venezuela,
06:00sort of doesn't alienate his America first base, probably have right sort of very little appetite
06:10for nation building in Venezuela.
06:15Okay, so what do you then see as the impact or the message that's being sent to other world leaders
06:26from this, from, from Trump's move? I mean, what, what could this mean for US relations with,
06:32with Latin America more, more, more broadly?
06:36So, I think different countries are going to take, right, the messages very differently.
06:42So, right, sort of almost immediately after the rendition of Maduro, right, sort of Trump already
06:49turned his attention, right, sort of threatening Colombia, right, he has also threatened
06:56Mexico to take care of cartels, right, sort of before, you know, we do something. So, I think for
07:03Latin America, sort of broadly speaking, this was really an American flex of his, right,
07:10Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine or what he has called, right, sort of his Don Roe Doctrine.
07:16So, if you, right, sort of follow social media, right, the White House, the Department of War has said,
07:24right, sort of, this is our hemisphere, right, so this is, it's a broad claim of America's prerogatives
07:32in its sphere of influence, right, the reviving of the Monroe Doctrine. So, right, other countries,
07:42and I think especially, right, you know, if you are Denmark, right, you know, you really have to worry
07:47about, right, what ambitions the administration has on Greenland, right, I think you have to take,
07:55right, sort of those threats seriously, and of course, you know, if we move closer to home, right,
08:02in Southeast Asia and the larger Indo-Pacific, right, I think this creates, right, a problem for
08:09countries who want to uphold a rules-based international order, right, because, right,
08:16nothing that the United States did, we forgot to Majuro and Venezuela, right, conforms to a rules-based
08:25order. So, right, sort of countries are going to be sort of hard pressed on the one hand to criticize,
08:34right, the administration, right, because, again, right, you know, we're talking about an administration,
08:40right, that is, shall we put it, right, mercurial, right, and, right, sort of, it takes a lot of these
08:48things seriously, and we see that in, right, sort of the statements that are put out, right, by Southeast Asian
08:56countries and the foreign ministries, right, talking about expressing grave concern, right, asking, right,
09:03sort of all parties to exercise restraint, right, without directly criticizing the United States.
09:11Wow. The previous guest I interviewed in the segment before yours thought that this could send a message
09:18to Putin and Xi Jinping that they too could maybe, you know, justify similar actions in countries they may
09:27not, towards global leaders, they may not be so favorable, they might not have favorable relations
09:34with. So, what do you think? Do you think it sets a precedent in that risk in that regard?
09:38So, it certainly might, right, sort of, at least with Putin, right, sort of, this is more in keeping,
09:46right, sort of, with his, right, sort of, you know, philosophy or ideology, right, but I think if you're
09:54looking at China and if Xi Jinping is looking at Taiwan, right, sort of, I don't think it works the
10:03same because, right, sort of, China's position has always been that Taiwan is part of China, right,
10:12so this has really nothing even to do with international law. This is a domestic fair, right,
10:19sort of, an unresolved issue of the Chinese civil war and, right, sort of, the BRC's calculations vis-a-vis
10:30Taiwan is really not about, right, sort of, you know, whether there is a sphere of influence or
10:40an example granted by the US but, right, sort of, if China thinks, right, it has the military capabilities,
10:47right, to conduct a contingency against Taiwan. Right. Well, Adrian, it's still, a lot of things are
10:56still up in the air at the moment. This story is still developing but what are you watching out for
11:02next that might tell you whether or not Trump's gambit succeeds or if it unravels?
11:10So, I think, you know, we have to see what Trump does next with regard to, right, the countries that he
11:18has openly named and threatened, right, to look at, right, sort of, what they are doing with Colombia,
11:27what they are doing with Mexico, Iran, and, right, sort of, obliquely also with Denmark and Greenland,
11:38and how, right, sort of, these states are responding.
11:43Okay. So, I guess we'll have to see how this story develops. Thank you so much for joining me on the
11:48show. Dr. Adrian Angler from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies wrapping up this
11:53episode of Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris signing off for the evening. Thank you so much for watching
11:58and good night.
