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In this episode, Elvira Bary explains the psychology behind Russia’s last remaining superweapon: the belief that one final threat, one miracle strike, or one hidden force can still save Putin’s failed war. As Ukrainian drones hit refineries, fuel shortages spread, mobilization wounds Russian families, and the war enters ordinary life, many Russians do not demand peace. Instead, they demand revenge, strikes on Kyiv, or even nuclear escalation. This video looks at private little worlds, borrowed greatness, cartoon enemies, the broken picture of Russian power, and the dangerous fantasy that Russia “has not really started yet.”

Video Chapters:

00:00 The Reality Behind the Kremlin’s Final Threat
08:26 Private Little Worlds
11:47 Borrowed Greatness
14:42 Cartoon Enemies
18:00 The Broken Picture
21:18 The Wonder Weapon

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Transcript
00:00For years many Russians managed to make one psychological arrangement with the war.
00:06It was happening, yes, but not really to them. It was on television. Life inside Russia adjusted.
00:14People learned which words not to say, which news not to notice and how to keep scrolling.
00:21And then reality began to crumble into everyday life.
00:25The Russian site of Instagram, which, by the way, is officially banned in Russia, though everyone still seems to use
00:32it, filled with videos from gas stations.
00:35People standing in long lines, drivers complaining they cannot fill their tanks, queues stretching for miles in some regions.
00:45Almost every day, new footage appears. Explosions at refineries, drone strikes on military plants,
00:53smoke rising over places that were supposed to be safely behind the front.
00:59Official news barely mentions it, that habit is already well established.
01:03But when the war was somewhere far away, silence was easy.
01:08Now the war has knocked on the door.
01:13And the most striking part is not even the damage itself.
01:17It is the reaction. One might expect the obvious demand. End the war.
01:23Stop creating reasons for Ukrainian drones to fly deeper into Russia.
01:28Stop pretending that a country can bomb its neighbor for years and remain untouched in return.
01:36But that is not what many people are saying.
01:38Instead, they demand strikes on decision-making centers in Kyiv.
01:44Some openly call for nuclear attacks.
01:47And beneath all this is a strange, stubborn thief.
01:52Russia, they believe, has not really started fighting yet.
01:56Somewhere, in some secret warehouse, there must be a miracle weapon.
02:01A final blow. A hidden force that will suddenly tip the war back in Putin's favor.
02:07Never mind the hundreds of thousands killed and maimed.
02:10Never mind the ruined border towns, the burned refineries, the economic losses,
02:17the exhausted army, and the shrinking room for ordinary life.
02:21In this imagination, all of that was apparently still the warm-up.
02:27I am Elvira Barry, a writer born in the Soviet Union.
02:30And today, we will look at how people in Russia are trying to psychologically adapt to the new phase of
02:36the war.
02:37What is happening in their heads?
02:40What logic they use?
02:42And what exactly they are still hoping for?
02:46Here is our roadmap.
02:481. Private little worlds.
02:502. How the chosen ignorance helps propaganda create myths of imaginary greatness.
02:563. Borrowed greatness.
02:584. How rising living standards and Putin's image became a substitute for political understanding.
03:054. Cartoon enemies.
03:075. Why Ukrainians became fictional villains instead of real people defending their homes.
03:135. The broken picture.
03:156. What happens when drones, shortages, and mobilization enter private life.
03:207. The wonder weapon.
03:237. What makes so many people wait for one blow to fix reality.
03:288. If you'd like to keep getting this kind of insights, please subscribe, like, share,
03:338. Join my think tank or support through paypal or super things or tap hype points.
03:398. That is how this channel stays independent to dive deep into things.
03:459. And if you are listening on Spotify, hit follow so the next episode lands in your feed automatically.
03:5210. Thank you for being here.
03:5310. Let's begin.
03:5410. One of the themes that comes up again and again on this channel is that the Kremlin doesn't just
04:00want
04:00territory. It wants ownership of history. There is a deeply rooted belief in Russia that if something
04:07was once Soviet, then it somehow still belongs to Russia. Not just land, industries, achievements, brands,
04:15even other people's memories. And that reminds me of one remarkable story I've come across
04:22since the full-scale invasion began. Many people don't know this, but one of the Soviet Union's most
04:29famous sparkling wine centers was built in Artemivsk, today's Bahmut. The project emerged from the Soviet
04:38effort to create domestic sparkling wine on a grand scale. According to one widely repeated version of
04:44the story, the ambition was to produce something that could rival French champagne. Artemivsk was
04:52chosen because beneath the city lay enormous former gypsum mines, more than 70 meters underground.
05:00Their stable temperature and humidity made them ideal for aging sparkling wine by the traditional
05:08method. For decades, millions of bottles matured there. After Ukraine became independent, something
05:16important happened. The winery was no longer simply a Soviet industrial inheritance. It became part of
05:24independent Ukraine's own history. The city eventually returned to its historical name, Bahmut, and the
05:30Alter Timivsk Winery became Art Winery. Its wines were exported abroad and became part of Ukraine's modern wine industry.
05:39Then came another rupture. Before 2014, most of the grapes used by the winery came from Crimea.
05:46After Russia occupied the peninsula, that supply chain was cut. The company had to find new vineyards in
05:55southern Ukraine and elsewhere. But some wines made from Crimean grapes harvested before the occupation were still
06:04aging deep beneath Bahmut. They had already become a kind of historical artifact. Ukrainian wine made from
06:12Ukrainian Crimea, aging beneath a Ukrainian city that would soon become one of the main battlefield of the war.
06:22Then came the battle for Bahmut. As Russian forces closed in, winery workers tried to save what they could.
06:31Hundreds of thousands of bottles were prepared for evacuation and part of the collection was successfully removed.
06:39But around 6 million bottles remained in the underground complex when Ukraine lost control of the city.
06:47Their exact fate is still unclear. What is clear is that only a limited number of bottles aged beneath Bahmut
06:55before the invasion survived outside Russian control. I love this story because it isn't really about wine.
07:04It's about identity. An empire can inherit a factory and assume that its history belongs to the empire forever,
07:13but history doesn't work that way. Over 30 years of Ukrainian independence, the Soviet
07:20enterprise became part of another country's economy, culture, and memory. Crimea changed the wine.
07:27Bahmut gave it a home. Ukrainian workers protected it, produced it, and when war came, risked their lives trying to
07:35save it.
07:36The Kremlin could occupy the city, but it could not turn that history back into a Soviet possession.
07:43That's why I'm genuinely happy that Art Wine is sponsoring today's video.
07:49If you'd like to own a small piece of that history or simply read more about the incredible journey
07:55these bottles took, you can visit Art Wine at www.artwine.com or using the link in the description.
08:06The remaining stock is very limited. By now, much of it has already been shipped back to Europe because
08:13demand has been so strong. So, once those bottles are gone, there won't be another batch from Bahmut.
08:22Now, let's go back to the video. Private Little Worlds
08:30How did the myth about we have not yet started come into being?
08:34It grew from zero interest in politics and foreign affairs. For many ordinary elections,
08:40these matters felt useless. The outside world spoke other languages and followed other rules.
08:47It wasn't easy to understand. The domestic politics were clear, but the ordinary Russian citizen had
08:55almost no way to influence it. So, why bother paying attention?
09:00That's the choice most Russians made many years ago. They turned away from politics to focus on
09:06their private lives. They told themselves, I take care of my life. The state takes care of the big world.
09:14That's what it should be like. In many Western countries, people closely watch and discuss what
09:20happens in parliament or in local government. But this was not the case in Russia. There was certain
09:27down-to-earth wisdom in this. Why get obsessed over what you can change anyway? Focus on things that are
09:34within reach. Make your own life better. And the world will follow suit.
09:40That's what many people wanted after the Soviet era when prioritizing your personal well-being was
09:47frowned upon. And the poverty of the 1990s. They wanted to finally get to live
09:53their best life and enjoy it without shame. Have a nice home, heal all trauma, build healthy relationships
10:02and raise happy children. But there was a price. The outside world disappeared from view.
10:08The war in Donbas, which Russia started in 2014, became a sad faraway story that many people scrolled
10:14past. If something about the war appeared in their feed, they moved on, saying something like,
10:21I don't watch the news. I don't want to upset myself. I have enough problems. What can I do anyway?
10:29That last sentence is important. What can I do anyway? When people have no agency, they often protect
10:38themselves with ignorance. Then February 2022 came. Ukrainian relatives and friends called. They
10:45wrote messages. They said, we are being bombed. Your country is doing this. How can you stay silent? And
10:53many Russians heard only the second part. Not we are being bombed. But you are a bad person.
11:02So instead of responsibility, they felt offense. Why are you attacking me? I did not start this.
11:10I am just living my normal life, cooking soup, going to work, taking care of my child. I am not
11:17bombing
11:17anyone. This is how private life becomes a shelter from guilt. The war was acceptable while it stayed
11:26outside the door. It became frightening only when mobilization threatened the son, the husband,
11:32the brother. Later, when drones appeared in the sky and castling disappeared at the pump,
11:38the same person who ignored Ukraine suddenly began to ask, why is this happening to me? Bored greatness.
11:52If a person cannot influence the state, he still wants status. Everyone wants some proof that they are
11:59respected. Some achieve it through career, money, and success, others through family or creative work.
12:07But there is another kind of status for those who failed at every other option. National status.
12:14The feeling that even if your own life is small, your country is great. Even if you fail to become
12:22what you want it to be, you are standing inside something large and respected. For many Russians,
12:29Putin supplied that feeling. Many people remembered the 1990s as humiliation,
12:34unpaid wages, poverty, criminals on the loose, and a sense that nobody knew where the country was going.
12:42Then the 2000s arrived. Oil prices rose, and an ordinary person's well-being improved dramatically,
12:52especially in Moscow and big cities. Home ownership and vacations became more accessible.
13:00Cafes, malls, gyms, and private clinics became part of ordinary urban life. The improvement was uneven.
13:08Many people remained poor. Many regions were still abandoned. But compared with the 1990s,
13:16the change felt enormous. And the mind made a shortcut. Life got better. Putin is in charge.
13:24Therefore, it is Putin who brought this improvement. He knows what he is doing. The president becomes a
13:32symbol of this better life. And the ordinary person can return to private life with a pleasant thought.
13:38The wise man on the top is taking care of everything. He is making the world respect us.
13:46This is borrowed greatness. You barely know anything about politics. Maybe you don't even
13:52follow the news, but you still emotionally own the state's greatness. That is why Putin's failure is
14:00so hard for many ordinary Russians to admit. If Putin is the person who built your national status,
14:07then his failure touches your own identity. It says, maybe, we are not as strong and smart as we
14:14fought. This is too painful. So another explanation appears. Russia has not really started fighting.
14:23It is holding back punches to land them at the best possible moment. That's Putin's plan. He knows
14:32what he is doing, like he always does. This is emotional protection that keeps an ordinary Russian's
14:40peace of mind. Cartoon enemies. The myth Russia has not started yet needs a certain kind of enemy.
14:51A cartoon enemy who won't foil your plan because he is merely a probe in your story. Russian propaganda
14:59is working tirelessly to reduce Ukrainians to exactly that kind of enemy by calling them Nazis,
15:07Bandarids, or Western puppets. All these labels erase real people's identity and grievances.
15:13They imply that their only reason Ukrainians are fighting back is that they are evil or manipulated.
15:21The word denazification was especially useful. It turned a real country into a flat villain. If Russia is
15:29fighting Nazis, then Russian citizens do not have to ask what Ukrainian people actually want.
15:36They do not have to ask why people in Kharkov, Odessa, Kyiv, Dnipro, or Kherson are resisting. They do not
15:44have to imagine a mother in a hallway with a child during an air raid. This is one of the
15:50reasons so many
15:51Russians could stay emotionally far away from the war. They were watching it as a simple story. Our brave heroes
16:00against their filthy villains. But once Ukrainians became cartoon villains, Russian failure became
16:08harder to understand. How can a great power fail to defeat cartoon villains? This is where the myth
16:16needs another trick. If the enemy is small and fake, but still does not fall, then someone larger must be
16:26standing behind him. NATO, the West, America, Europe, the Anglo-Saxons, whoever the story needs today. The
16:37enemy grows because Russian pride needs him to grow. This happens in ordinary conversations too. A person says,
16:44Ukraine violated the Minsk agreements. Ask him if he read the Minsk agreements. Usually no. He heard the phrase
16:54somewhere. A person says, Khrushchev illegally gave Crimea away. Ask him what Soviet legal procedure was used in 1954.
17:05Usually, he does not know. A person says, Ukraine is run by Nazis. Ask him how a country with a
17:14Jewish president fits
17:15that story. He usually moves to another slogan. All these people speak in lines borrowed from state media. That saves
17:24them
17:25the effort of educating themselves on the matter, analyzing things, and forming their own opinion. But here is the deeper
17:34problem. Many Russians do not only imagine Ukrainians as cartoon characters. They imagine Russia as a cartoon
17:42character too. Likeable, brave, and clever. But still a cartoon. They have a very vague, if any, idea of how
17:50the country actually works and what hardships it is facing because of the war. That is why the shock of
17:57reality
17:58shattering this picture is so strong. The broken picture
18:05For years, many Russians managed to keep the war outside their private world. It existed, of course.
18:11It was on television, in official speeches, in angry telegram posts. But psychologically, it remained
18:18somewhere else. People could live around it. They could avoid the subject, change the channel, plan their
18:25weekends, and pretend that history was not pressing against the window. Then the war began to knock.
18:33Mobilization was the first real shock. Suddenly, the war could enter a family through a draft notice.
18:40That was when many people panicked. Not when Ukrainian cities were being bombed, but when the state reached for
18:48their own sons and husbands. Then came drones. A country that had been told it was protected by
18:55greatness began seeing war in the sky. And now, the same lesson is being delivered at the gas station.
19:04Today, I saw a short video of a young Russian woman driving her car and crying because of the fuel
19:11shortage. She had planned a vacation. She had waited for it all year. Now, she didn't know whether she
19:19could go at all. By car, she risked getting stuck somewhere without gasoline. By plane, she faced canceled
19:26flights or absurdly expensive tickets. She was in tears. I don't know what's going on, she said.
19:34I don't care about politics. I don't give a damn who started it or who is guilty. I want my
19:41vacation.
19:42This is where the old picture cracks. A person sees the shortage with her own eyes, but the official
19:50world insists that everything is under control. A person hears about drones reaching Russian territory,
19:57but television either says little or turns the story into a proof that Russia must strike harder.
20:05Their contradiction is too uncomfortable to live untreated. So, the state offers a simple emotion – anger.
20:14Naturally, not at the people who started the war. The anger must be aimed at Ukraine. Revenge
20:21replaces explanation. Instead of asking why the war has reached Russian gas stations and airports,
20:28people are encouraged to demand a spectacular strike on Kyiv. It may not solve anything practical,
20:35but it gives a fighting person a feeling that something has been answered. And if a person has
20:42avoided politics for years, this emotional shortcut is tempting. It requires no painful revision of the past,
20:48so the mind reaches for the nearest comfort. Maybe this is all part of a clever plan. Maybe Russia is
20:57simply holding back. Maybe the real war has not even started. That phrase is especially convenient.
21:04It keeps the old, cozy version of reality alive. Russia is still strong. Putin is still in control.
21:12Somewhere hidden from view, there is still a final trump card.
21:17The wonder weapon We haven't started yet is a desperate wish for a final instrument
21:27sitting deep inside Russia that has not been used yet. Once brought in, it will lend one decisive blow
21:36that will end the story correctly. For many Russians, nuclear weapons feel like that kind of final
21:43magical button. They prefer not to imagine the real consequences, real deaths and destruction from a
21:50nuclear strike. Instead, they imagine restoration of status. One threat and everyone becomes afraid again.
21:59One word from Putin and the West backs down. But nuclear blackmail is not a power move. It is a
22:07scream for
22:07attention from a state that cannot win the normal war it started. There is a historical echo here.
22:14In late Nazi Germany, propaganda kept promising wonder weapons. The word was Wound of Offer. New rockets or
22:23aircrafts that would turn the war around when ordinary reality had already turned against the regime.
22:30Some weapons were real and deadly, such as the V2 rocket. But still, they did not save Hitler's Germany.
22:40That is the lesson. A wonder weapon, even when it is real, can't fix a lost war or a rotten
22:48strategy.
22:49The phrase, we have not started yet, hides a very common fear. Maybe Russia has started. And this is all
22:58it can do.
22:58The idea that Russia is politely holding back its real power is fantasy. There is no wonder weapon
23:05sitting idle and waiting for its moment to shine. If Putin had a tool that could win the war without
23:12unacceptable cost, he would have used it long ago. The war has already consumed Russia's best units
23:19and huge amounts of equipment. It has forced Russia to ask North Korea for ammunition
23:26and turned more of the economy toward war. A state wouldn't do this if the war weren't eating it.
23:34Before you go, I want to ask you something personal. Have you ever kept hoping that some
23:40final rescue would appear? A person? A decision? A miracle? One dramatic turn that would save you from
23:47failure? And what happened when you finally understood that no one was coming? Please
23:54tell me in the comments. If this video helped you understand the psychology behind Russia's final
24:00threats, please like, subscribe, and share it with one person who still thinks nuclear blackmail is a sign
24:07of strength. And if you want to support this channel directly, you can join my think tank, leave a super
24:14thing, support through PayPal, or tap Hype Points to help this episode travel further. For those listening
24:22on Spotify, follow the show so you don't miss the next one. Thank you for watching. See you next time.
24:49you

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