- 5 weeks ago
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00:00Sammy P.
00:01So when we get to Friday, especially during football season,
00:05I like the idea of talking about some of the topics that he'll be interested in.
00:12And this time of year, as was the case last week, Bulldog was off last week too.
00:17It was just Sam and I.
00:18And we talked about some awards bets or stat leaders, that kind of thing.
00:24And so we may do more of that today.
00:26I know we'll talk a little college football today with Sam coming up in about 20 minutes.
00:31But one thing I've enjoyed and also enjoyed doing with Bulldog in this kind of realm is division winner parlays.
00:40And I thought maybe here with you, I would just try to put one together and see what we can
00:47come up with.
00:47I've already got four of my own and then 10 more, almost certainly doomed to lose.
00:56With relatives at a party that I went to, I have talked about it a couple of months ago,
01:01where we all put our heads together and everybody threw in 10 bucks and we built 10, 18 division winning
01:09parlays.
01:10I want to look at the odds now and talk about it here with you and then see what a
01:16parlay might look like that makes sense.
01:18Because the odds have changed in some cases quite a bit since June, say.
01:25AFC East, of course, why not start there?
01:28I'm using DraftKings for this.
01:31Bills minus 136.
01:34New England plus 125.
01:36All we care about here is first place.
01:38The Jets plus 1,900.
01:40And the Dolphins plus 4,000.
01:42So that means $10 on Miami to win the AFC East would win 400.
01:49Or $100 would win 4,000.
01:52If you think that's, you know, pretty steep, Arizona is plus 10,000.
01:59So $10 on Arizona wins 1,000 bucks if they actually win NFC West.
02:05It almost feels like it should be more than that.
02:06But let's say, let's start with the favorites across the board and see what that would pay.
02:15Some are minus money like the Bills.
02:18Some are plus.
02:18So $10 on the eight favorites to win their divisions would pay $5,615.62.
02:34Yes, I mean, that seems like, I mean, you're not betting on any upsets here, any underdogs.
02:40You're playing the chalk.
02:41You're playing all the favorites.
02:44No, all the favorites never win, right?
02:47I mean, you can't expect all the favorites to win.
02:49With the NFL, I don't actually know if this has changed much in the last, say, five years or so.
02:55But we always had this thing for a long time in the NFL where at least in one division,
03:01especially when there are only four teams, like is the case now and has been for a long time, actually,
03:06at least in one division, last year's last place team gets to first.
03:11So if we want to play the eight favorites, Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City, Philadelphia,
03:19Detroit, Tampa Bay, and the Rams, $10 would win us $5,615.
03:27What else it would win us other than like really good money is kind of a scoreboard flex,
03:35which is like, why would you not bet on the favorites?
03:38You know, so we could have that too.
03:40But I don't want to bet eight favorites because that's boring and uninspiring.
03:45Buffalo, minus $136,000.
03:48The Bills are, wait for it, the Bills are the biggest favorite of any team in any division right now.
03:59Second would be the Ravens, minus $112,000.
04:03Third would be the Rams, minus $105,000.
04:06Everybody else is plus money.
04:08Houston, in order.
04:09Houston, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Detroit and Tampa are tied.
04:14Detroit and Tampa are the biggest odds, I never know how to put it,
04:20among favorites in their respective divisions at plus 170.
04:25So what do we want to do to mix this up a little bit?
04:28Well, let's leave the Bills for now.
04:30But they are the chalkiest?
04:32How about that, actually?
04:33This might be my new favorite way of illustrating how the Bills are seen in the league
04:41after all these years and whatever has been said and written about their playoff losses.
04:47No team in the NFL right now is a bigger division favorite than are the Bills.
04:53And they're not even the defending champions.
04:55New England, plus $125,000.
04:58I think if I weren't here with you right now, I might pivot to New England.
05:03Because, I mean, no respect, right?
05:06I do want to come off Kansas City.
05:10Even though plus 160 is a good number for a division favorite, it's one of the highest,
05:15and it's the Chiefs.
05:18I want to come off them and just see what it does to our payout.
05:23So if we take the Chiefs and instead go Chargers, the $5,600 becomes $6,200.
05:30If we then go Denver, it becomes $7,000 at plus $225,000.
05:35So let's make it Denver right now.
05:37The Bengals seem like an easy one here.
05:39So I mentioned yesterday, even though I never got into it,
05:43talking or rather watching Aaron Schott's podcast with Mike Tenere.
05:48Mike was on with me on Wednesday.
05:49And they were talking about the AFC North and sizing up each team.
05:53One, just as an aside, I guess, one, I thought, interesting takeaway from those guys.
06:01Using numbers, using their DVOA, and also both of those guys have a lot of,
06:07they can speak this betting language too.
06:10And Aaron said, Aaron Schott's, said that he was surprised
06:16Baltimore didn't look better by their data.
06:19Then they did.
06:21They were like a 9-point-something average wins team based on all his simulations,
06:29however he goes about his stuff, his algorithms.
06:33And then 60-some percent to make the playoffs.
06:36And the Bengals were like right there next to Baltimore.
06:40Yet, in the odds, Baltimore comes in minus 112, Cincinnati plus 184.
06:46Cincinnati is a much better bet than Baltimore by these odds.
06:51So we're going to flip that.
06:52Now our 7,000 payout becomes 10,500 by going from the Ravens to the Bengals.
06:59All right.
07:00Five figures.
07:01Now we're starting to talk a little bit here.
07:03Now we're cooking.
07:04Do we want to flip Houston to Jacksonville?
07:07We haven't done anything crazy yet.
07:09All we've done is take Cincinnati and move them in for Baltimore as the Bengals.
07:16I mean, the Bengals are favored in 15 of 17 games.
07:19I don't think there's anything that exciting or, you know,
07:23there's nothing about that that says no to me.
07:25So Cincinnati, and then we've gone to Denver.
07:28If we go back to Kansas City, we're at 8,400.
07:32We're going to go back to Denver.
07:33So 10,500, do we want to go from Houston to Jacksonville?
07:40I have liked Jacksonville more, but then, again, I'll use Aaron shots.
07:47Warren Sharp has been tweeting about the Texans.
07:50Sal and I were talking about that this week.
07:52Bills and Texans week one, that Houston might be as good as anybody.
07:59I watched them last night.
08:00I mean, it's the preseason.
08:01Stroud played a little bit.
08:04I mean, what was there to say?
08:06They got to pick six and basically whatever.
08:09It's irrelevant to this exercise.
08:11If we go from Houston to Jacksonville, our 10,000 becomes 17,000.
08:16All right?
08:18We're going to do that for now, and then we'll look at the NFC here.
08:23So we're still on the four NFC favorites.
08:26You can do this by the way.
08:27Hopefully you are.
08:28Maybe, you know, just if it interests you on your own favorite betting app.
08:34In the NFC right now, we have the four favorites.
08:37Philadelphia, Detroit, Tampa, and the Rams.
08:41I didn't want all eight favorites, but I don't want only one either.
08:45So I want to keep a couple where they are.
08:48And I'm definitely not messing around with Carolina in the NFC South.
08:53I'm betting all the unders on Carolina.
08:55But I'm interested in New Orleans.
08:58And Tampa, I mean, how funny is it to have Baker Mayfield talking about shocking the world by winning, not
09:06by losing?
09:06What would be the most surprising season for Tampa if they finished last, not if they finished first?
09:12Someone tell Baker Mayfield that they're actually the betting favorite in that division.
09:16I'm moving to New Orleans here.
09:17So instead of our 17,000 for 10 bucks, now we're up to 23.
09:21All right?
09:24It's getting good, people.
09:25$0.23,700, by the way.
09:28$10.82.
09:30Don't forget that.
09:31Don't forget that 3% cash back from your credit card.
09:34If I'm not going to forget that, if I'm going to use my credit card, a certain one,
09:38so I get $0.09 back in my account from buying a vitamin water, my 3% for a $3
09:44drink,
09:45I'm definitely not sleeping on this $0.82.
09:48So now we are Buffalo, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Denver, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Detroit,
09:55and the Rams.
09:56I want to keep the Rams.
09:58Everybody loves them.
09:59The pressure against the Rams is that you have the defending Super Bowl champion in their division.
10:06I don't care.
10:07I want to keep L.A. at minus 105.
10:10I think that's like a perfectly – I think betting them just straight is fine,
10:16even though they're the favorite and minus money.
10:19I mean, Seattle's good.
10:21San Francisco even maybe.
10:23But all their age and their injuries, that could make them a little bit of a stealth pick.
10:28But I want to stay with the Rams, which leaves us the NFC East and the NFC North.
10:36Do we want to get crazy at all here?
10:38Or just a little bit off the favorites is all we would maybe want to do.
10:43NFC East.
10:44Philadelphia plus 120.
10:46Dallas plus 205.
10:48Washington plus 500.
10:50No.
10:51Giants plus 600.
10:52No.
10:53I want to move to Dallas.
10:55So we're going to take Philadelphia off and add Dallas, and we are up to $32,000 here, people.
11:05$32,871.82.
11:07The same $0.82.
11:09They love to pay you $0.82.
11:11Well, they don't necessarily – they're not necessarily going to pay us anything.
11:16But that's what comes up.
11:18So all that's left is the NFC North.
11:21And this one, I think you can almost do anything you want.
11:26This is like that fantasy point I made 15 minutes ago, where just auto it.
11:33McCaffrey, Taylor, Cook, Smith and Jigba, St. Brown, Nakua.
11:39Just kind of auto it.
11:41Get who you get, and then do the rest after that.
11:44Which, I'm not interested in making four bets here, so I have to pick one.
11:48Can you talk yourself into Minnesota?
11:54I'll get back to them.
11:56Detroit plus 170.
12:00It's too competitive a division on paper for me to want to use the favorite.
12:06Green Bay plus 225.
12:08Does Green Bay, this Green Bay, Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, do they ever really deliver?
12:15However, they're a good team.
12:18They're like a little bit the Bills, but below.
12:22Where they've been a good team that, in the end, hasn't gotten it done.
12:27What about the Bears?
12:28All their talk.
12:29Won it last year, just like Denver.
12:31We talked about Denver with our guest, Ben Albright, yesterday.
12:35Here's Denver, last year, 14 wins.
12:38Yet, third choice in their division.
12:41Not a ton of respect there.
12:42The Bears are the same thing.
12:44They didn't win 14 games, but they won the NFC North.
12:46They won a playoff game.
12:48Right there with the Rams in the second round.
12:52Let's do it.
12:53Off Detroit.
12:55Chicago.
12:56Now we've gone from 32,000 to 49,000.
12:59From the Lions to the Bears.
13:02What's the actual difference?
13:04Are the Lions really that much more likely to win the NFC North than Chicago, which won
13:12it last year?
13:13By the way, with these, if you ever get close, where you've got five or six that look like
13:19you've got it as you get toward the end of the season, and then a couple that are close,
13:24you can end up making other bets to help yourself, you know, to hedge, basically.
13:29I just went from 32,000 to 49,000 by going from Detroit to Chicago.
13:34Last point, before we break and then bring Sam Paniotovic on.
13:39Minnesota, at 510, is that nuts?
13:45It's almost nuts, right?
13:47Let me just see the number.
13:48From 49,000, we come off the Bears, we had the Vikings, now we're to 74.
13:53We added 50%.
13:55I'm just going to do that.
13:58We added 50% more profit by getting off Chicago and going to Minnesota.
14:04What were we when we had Detroit?
14:06I mean, some number in the 20s.
14:09Now we've tripled that by going to the...
14:11I'm just going to do that.
14:12All right.
14:14You were here.
14:15That's our bet.
14:16Buffalo, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Denver.
14:19We've got the Bills, who again, are the biggest favorite of any team in any division
14:23right now.
14:24This is DraftKings.
14:25Dallas, I like that a lot.
14:27Defense is thought to be a lot better.
14:30Philadelphia, vibes are weird.
14:32New Orleans, why not?
14:34Rams, big favorite overall.
14:37And then the Vikings.
14:38Maybe I've gotten too cute with Minnesota here in the last minute.
14:41But we'll see if our $10 can't win us 74 grand.
14:45And you can, you know, or I will, at least, if it's possible, relive this monologue in the
14:54Odyssey app someday, on-demand audio.
14:57All right.
14:58That's our...
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