- 1 week ago
Could Iran become the unexpected fourth member of the Saudi-led Mecca Defence Pact? A report from Iranian media claims Tehran has received an invitation to join the alliance formed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. The claim has not yet been officially confirmed by Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan or Turkey — but if true, it could dramatically reshape West Asia’s security equation.
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00:08can saudi arabia really build a defense pact with iran its longtime rival and can india protect its
00:15interests in iran while trump turns the economic screws on tehran today two stories expose the new
00:21power game iran may be invited into the mecca defense pact with saudi arabia pakistan and
00:26turkey if true rivals could suddenly share the same security umbrella but what happens if america
00:32attacks iran then there is india washington's economic d-day targets iran's oil banks and trade
00:40putting charbaha and india's strategic autonomy under pressure one story is about rivals being
00:46forced to cooperate the other is about india deciding how far it can push back hello and welcome
00:52you're watching statecraft with me geeta mohan as the brics summit draws closer india stepping up
00:58engagement with russia and china two key members of the grouping but countries with very different
01:03positions in india's strategic calculus external affairs minister dr jay shankar is in russia on a
01:09two-day visit he's attending the 27th meeting of the india-russia intergovernmental commission
01:14on trade economic scientific technological and cultural cooperation national security advisor
01:20ajit doval meanwhile is traveling to beijing for boundary talks with chinese foreign minister wong
01:25hee the talks are expected to focus on maintaining peace and tranquility along the line of actual
01:30control and managing outstanding border issues the timing is significant the war involving u.s iran
01:38and israel has already added uncertainty across west asia at the same time u.s policy has moved from
01:44tariffs and trade pressure to military action adding further uncertainty to the global environment for
01:50india this makes stability and strategic autonomy more important than ever new new delhi has a
01:57significant energy relationship with russia china meanwhile is a major economic and manufacturing power
02:03even as the boundary remains a serious challenge in bilateral ties india is therefore trying to manage
02:08both relationships without a law allowing differences to derail areas where cooperation is possible and that
02:15is where bricks matters india wants the grouping to strengthen the voice of the global south and give
02:21developing economies a greater role in shaping global economic governance the challenge is to make countries
02:28with competing interests work together on shared problems for new delhi the objective is very clear protect
02:34india's interests preserve strategic autonomy and use brigs to push for a more representative global order
02:42pakistan's army chief field marshal asa munir has landed in tehran at a moment when washington
02:47and iran are stuck in a diplomatic deadlock and this trip is not just about pakistan iran relations
02:53munir is there for bilateral and regional talks so can pakistan get the us and iran talking again
02:59according to reuters munir spoke with us president donald trump last week before his tehran trip the
03:06reported message from washington was simple use pakistan's influence to bring iran back to the
03:11negotiating table that puts islamabad in a tricky position pakistan has ties with both sides but trust
03:18between washington and tehran has almost disappeared earlier pakistani mediation helped produce the june
03:25islamabad memorandum but that process collapsed after fighting resumed now trump has threatened iran with
03:32what he calls a crushing economic operation if tehran refuses a deal iran meanwhile has threatened to
03:38shut down oil exports from the gulf and that makes the strait of hormones the giant elephant in the room
03:43any disruption there can hit global energy supplies so pakistan has a strong reason to prevent this crisis
03:50from exploding further but munir's agenda may go beyond washington and tehran he's also expected to
03:56discuss iran-linked houthi attacks on saudi arabia and the new pakistan-turkey saudi defense arrangement
04:03so what is pakistan trying to do simple keep every door open carry messages between rivals and turn
04:09islamabad into the bridge between washington and tehran which cannot be built by itself
04:24something extraordinary may be happening in west asia defense pact created by saudi arabia pakistan
04:30and turkey three countries with very different strategic interests may now be opening its doors
04:36to a one country that has long been on the opposite side of saudi arabia iran a report from iranian
04:43media
04:43claims tehran has received an invitation to join the makkah defense pact if true this would be a
04:49stunning development because saudi arabia and iran have spent years competing for influence across the
04:55region and one of the biggest battlegrounds of that rivalry has been yemen where saudi arabia has faced
05:01the iran-aligned houthis but now comes the bigger question if iran joins the makkah pact what happens
05:08to saudi arabia the uae and the houthis the invitation remains unconfirmed but if true it
05:14creates a striking contradiction the alliance has been compared to nato's article 5 an attack on one
05:20is an attack on all so what happens if the u.s attacks iran washington and tehran are already at
05:27war
05:27saudi arabia is a key u.s ally while pakistan is actively trying to remain useful to washington
05:33would they really confront america to defend iran or would article 5 suddenly have an exception
05:40the pact was signed by saudi arabia pakistan and turkey on the 7th of august its central principle
05:46is simple an armed attack against one member is to be treated as an attack against all three
05:52turkey's foreign minister hakan fedan compared that principle to nato's article 5 so think about
05:59the significance a pact that initially looked like a regional security arrangement involving saudi arabia
06:05pakistan and turkey could potentially bring iran into the same security framework as saudi arabia
06:12that is the first big contradiction for decades saudi arabia and iran have been strategic rivals
06:17their competition has played out across yemen iraq syria lebanon and the gulf but in 2023 beijing
06:25brokered a saudi iran rapprochement diplomatic relations were restored that did not erase the
06:31rivalry it simply created a mechanism to manage it and that distinction is crucial because iran joining
06:38the mecca pact would not suddenly make saudi arabia and iran allies it could however create something
06:44the middle east or west asia has struggled to build for decades a security mechanism where rivals
06:50are forced to talk before they fight and there is no better place to test that than yemen the
06:56saudi houthi relationship has deteriorated sharply this year the houthis launched missiles and drones
07:02towards saudi arabia after accusing riyadh of carrying out strikes in yemen the houthis even
07:08announced a naval blockade against saudi arabia and on the 20th of august the houthis claimed
07:13they had attacked targets in saudi arabia's najran region including an airport and and an aramco
07:20facility saudi arabia has not confirmed those claims so this is not an old rivalry sitting
07:26quietly in the background it is active it is now and this is where iran becomes the key the houthis
07:33are
07:33iran aligned but that does not mean tehran controls every houthi decision the houthis have their own
07:39political and military calculations yet iran does remain their important and most important external
07:45backer providing political support military expertise and assistance that has helped the
07:51movement build a serious missile and drone capability so if saudi arabia is inside a defense
07:56pact with iran riyadh would effectively be saying we are prepared to build a security arrangement with the
08:03state that backs the force threatening us from yemen that sounds contradictory but strategically it
08:10could make sense because saudi arabia may be reaching a conclusion it cannot eliminate every
08:15threat by force and it cannot permanently secure its southern border while yemen remains unstable if iran
08:22can influence the houthis then bringing iran into a regional security framework could give riyadh
08:27another tool pressure through diplomacy rather than another cycle of war in other words saudi arabia
08:34could be trying to turn iran from part of the problem into part of the solution but then comes
08:40the uae and this is where the equation gets even more complicated saudi arabia and the uae entered the
08:46yemen war as partners in 2015 but over the years their priorities diverged saudi arabia has broadly
08:53backed yemen's internationally recognized government and wants a unified yemeni state the uae has
09:00supported the southern transitional council a separatist force seeking greater autonomy or
09:05independence for southern yemen that rivalry between riyadh and abu dhabi became increasingly visible
09:11in 2025 and 2026 so the uae's problem is different from saudi arabia's for riyadh the immediate concern is
09:20the houthi threat on its southern border for abu dhabi one of the biggest strategic concerns is the
09:25security of southern yemen the red sea and the maritime routes connecting the gulf of aden to global
09:32trade and the uae has repeatedly backed saudi arabia when the houthis attacked the kingdom in july
09:38abu dhabi condemned houthi threats against saudi arabia and declared full solidarity with riyadh now
09:44imagine iran enters the mecca pact suddenly the uae is looking at a regional security arrangement
09:50that includes saudi arabia pakistan turkey and iran and that could create two very different
09:57reactions in abu dhabi on one hand the uae could welcome any mechanism that reduces attacks and
10:03stabilizes the gulf on the other trust in tehran is extremely low just this month the uae suspended
10:09trade and financial dealings with iran after accusing tehran of missile attacks iran denied the
10:15allegations so abu dhabi could ask a very simple question how can iran be inside a collective
10:21security framework while the uae is still accusing iran of threatening its territory and maritime
10:27interests and that is why an iranian entry would not automatically create peace it could actually
10:33expose every contradiction inside the gulf security system saudi arabia wants deterrence iran wants
10:41recognition of its role as a regional power the uae wants maritime security and protection from iranian
10:48threats also the fact that iran and the uae do not see eye to eye also the fact that saudi
10:55arabia and iran
10:56are rivals in the region at this point in time turkey wants greater regional influence and pakistan
11:03well let's just say beggars can't be choosers everyone wants security but everyone defines security
11:11differently and there is another important question what happens to the houthis if iran joins the answer
11:17may be more complicated than simply saying tehran will order the houthis to stop iran does not have
11:24complete command over the houthis but membership could create a powerful incentive for tehran to
11:29restrain escalation because once iran becomes part of the same security architecture saudi arabia
11:35every houthi attack on saudi territory becomes diplomatically more complicated for tehran
11:41iran would have an interest in preventing its regional partners from triggering a direct saudi
11:46iran confrontation that could produce an unexpected outcome the mecca pact could gradually become less
11:53about fighting iran and more about managing iran and if tehran uses its influence to reduce houthi attacks
11:59saudi arabia gets what it wants most security on its southern border iran gets something too
12:06recognition recognition that it is not simply an adversary to be contained but a regional power
12:12that has to be part of the conversation but there is a major catch if the mecca pact retains a
12:18genuine
12:18mutual defense clause what happens if saudi arabia and iran clash again would saudi arabia be expected to
12:25defend iran would iran be expected to defend saudi arabia and what happens if an attack comes from a
12:31non-state actor such as the houthis these questions could make iranian membership extremely difficult to
12:37operationalize which means this may not be a military alliance in the traditional sense it could instead
12:43become something more interesting a regional mechanism designed to prevent rivals from sliding into war
12:50so is iran joining the mecca pact the beginning of a new west asian or middle eastern security order
12:56not yet the invitation itself remains unconfirmed but if an alliance that includes iran is ever to
13:02become a reality there is a much bigger diplomatic problem to solve first a durable resolution between
13:09washington and tehran with israel necessarily part of those conversations and palestine as well because
13:15an alliance cannot function if one member remains at war with the united states and fundamentally opposed
13:21to israel's or palestine's legal position while other members are closely aligned with washington and
13:27israel any future security architecture would therefore need its stakeholders aligned on the core
13:34regional questions iran u.s tensions israel security and palestine statehood only then can the mecca
13:42pact move from an ambitious idea to a credible regional order india buys russian oil despite u.s
13:50pressure but when it comes to iran the rules suddenly get much harder trump has declared an economic war
13:56on iran and this time the message is not just for tehran washington has warned every country bank
14:02shipping company and business that keeps iran alive through trade choose your side carefully treasury
14:08secretary scott besant calls it an economic d-day the single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled
14:14against an adversary military pressure came first now washington wants to cut the money
14:20oil banks and trade routes that keep tehran breathing and that puts india in an awkward spot
14:27india has strategic ties with iran it built jabahar for access to afghanistan and central asia
14:32without depending on pakistan and still wants room to make its own foreign policy choices but there is
14:39one awkward question if india has resisted american pressure over russia why has it been far more
14:45cautious with iran and what happens when trump makes india choose so what exactly is trump trying to achieve
14:52with this economic d-day is the target simply iran or is washington also sending a message to every
14:59country that does business with tehran the answer is both besant's message is blunt washington wants
15:06to sever the economic lifelines that sustain iran that means pressure on oil banking shipping exchange
15:13houses front companies currency transfers and foreign financial networks and trump has warned countries
15:21against providing iran with any type of lifeline that changes the game this is not just about freezing
15:28iranian assets or punishing iranian companies washington wants the cost of doing business with iran to
15:34become so high that foreign companies start asking a very simple question is iran worth losing access to
15:42the u.s financial system for many the answer could be no and that is the real point of economic
15:49d-day
15:49washington does not need every country to agree with america it needs enough banks companies insurers
15:56traders and governments to decide that iran is too expensive a partner iran of course has a different
16:03answer foreign minister abbas arahchi calls the new sanctions threat evidence of american desperation
16:09his argument is simple previous military and economic pressures failed so why should the latest
16:15sanctions succeed tehran has long endured the burden of isolation turning years of economic restrictions
16:21sanctions into a practiced craft of survival yet washington's latest campaign may be miscalculating
16:27a crucial change the rise of a powerful alternative support network beijing and moscow have shifted from
16:34being mere observers to becoming the primary engineers of iran's endurance this isn't just about simple
16:40commerce they're building a structural shield by purchasing iranian oil and linking tehran to their
16:46financial systems china and russia have significantly weakened the impact of american sanctions transforming
16:53a policy of maximum pressure into a broader challenge for global diplomacy but washington clearly believes
16:59the opposite besant argues that iran's economy has already suffered heavily the real has weakened
17:05inflation has risen and tehran's remaining lifelines now depend on outside countries so the pressure moves
17:12outward and that is where india enters the story why does india matter to iran because india's
17:19relationship with tehran is not just about oil jabahar is the big one india sees the port as a crucial
17:26route
17:27to afghanistan and central asia and as part of the international north-south transport corridor it gives india
17:34a way to reach the region without relying on pakistan india has invested in jabahar committed money for
17:40port equipment and signed a 10-year operating agreement for the shahid beheshdi terminal that
17:47makes the port more than a business project it is a strategic piece of india's connectivity plan
17:53then there is trade india exports pharmaceuticals food and other goods to iran there are also banking
17:59shipping and logistics links so no india has not abandoned iran but here comes the awkward part
18:05how much is india actually willing to risk for that relationship the answer becomes clearer when
18:11we compare iran with russia india has defended its right to buy russian oil despite western pressure
18:17russia accounted for about 48 percent of india's crude imports in june 2026 that is enormous iran by
18:26contrast saw its oil relationship with india collapse after washington ended sanctions waivers in 2019
18:32india stopped importing iranian crude in may that year limited purchases resumed in 2026 after the us
18:40temporarily authorized them but that waiver later expired so why the huge difference because russia is
18:47much harder for india to replace russia supplies india with enormous quantities of oil that is now it
18:53also supplies defense equipment spares and other strategic goods that has been a forever thing russia remains
19:00deeply embedded in india's defense system a large share of india's military equipment has russian or
19:06soviet origins iran is important russia is structurally important that distinction matters with russia
19:13india can make a powerful argument cutting the relationship would hit energy security defense
19:19preparedness and strategic autonomy all at once with iran india's major interests especially
19:25jabahar and access to central asia and afghanistan but iran does not sit inside india's defense
19:31architecture in the same way and then there is oil russian crude became hugely valuable to india
19:37because it offered discounted supplies after western buyers reduced purchases india could buy the oil
19:44refine it and reduce pressure on its import bill iran offers oil too but india already stopped relying on it
19:51so the difference is not simply geopolitics it is also basic arithmetic india asks what do we gain
19:58what do we risk and how much pain can washington actually impose with russia the answer has allowed
20:05india to push back with iran the answer has been far more cautious and why does washington tolerate
20:11more indian maneuvering with russia at some moments than with iran because the sanction structures
20:17are different the russian oil regime has often tried to restrict moscow's revenue while keeping
20:23oil flowing into global markets that leaves room for countries such as india to continue purchases
20:29under certain conditions iran faces a much harsher financial squeeze foreign banks and companies can
20:36face secondary sanctions for significant dealings with iranian banks oil companies or designated entities
20:43that distinction is critical india can find ways to buy russian oil while trying to avoid blocked
20:49entities and prohibited services iran is a different financial minefield india experienced this directly
20:55in 2019 it had a rupee payment mechanism for iranian oil through banks with limited american exposure
21:02but when washington ended the waiver indian imports fell to zero the lesson was brutal but simple having a
21:10workaround does not mean indian banks or refiners will accept the risk the strait of hormuz makes
21:16that risk even bigger iran has brought shipping through the waterway to a virtual standstill by
21:21refusing unauthorized oil tankers that has already disrupted shipments and pushed crude prices higher
21:28for india this matters because hormuz is not just another line on a map it is a major artery for
21:35energy
21:35supplies so washington's economic d-day creates a strange problem for new delhi india has relatively
21:42limited tarot dependence on iranian oil but it has major exposure to the wider energy and shipping shock
21:48and chabahar creates another headache the united states had previously given the port a sanctions
21:55exception that waiver expired on the 26th of april 2026. india now has to protect its strategic
22:03interests without putting indian companies directly under washington's sanctions gun that is why an
22:09interim arrangement in which iranian authorities temporarily manage the terminal makes sense as a
22:15tactical move but it also carries a risk a temporary handover can become a permanent loss of influence
22:21if india retreats too far from chao bahar tehran has other options china already has deep economic ties
22:29with iran russia also has interests in the wider region so india cannot simply walk away but can it
22:35openly defy washington that is the harder question so will trump's economic d-day force india to choose
22:42between washington and tehran not completely india is unlikely to abandon iran it has too much invested
22:48in chao bahar and those investments are at stake as the indian companies are withdrawing but india is also
22:54unlikely to treat iran the way it treats russia because the blunt reality is this russia gives
23:00india oil defense equipment and strategic depth iran gives india connectivity chao bahar and a route
23:06into afghanistan and central asia both matter and that is exactly why trump's sanctions campaign matters
23:12beyond iran the real test is not whether india supports washington or tehran the real test is whether
23:19india can keep its strategic autonomy when the u.s increasingly uses access to global finance
23:26banking shipping and trade as leverage india has already shown that it can resist washington when
23:32the stakes are high enough india wants iran but it does not want iran badly enough to lose america
23:39that's all in this edition of statecraft before we go earlier we talked about china's unlikely movie
23:44sensation new lie who has taken a very unusual leap from a low budget animated film to the world of
23:52humanoid robots at beijing's world robot conference the viral baby cow got a robotic makeover with its
23:59head fitted onto a 60 centimeter robot the film once earned barely a thousand dollars but after social media
24:06turned its rough animation into a viral craze it went on to cross four million dollars at the box office
24:13now new lie is not just a movie character it has become a robot star complete with its own futuristic
24:20upgrade
24:21take a look goodbye and take care
24:58take care about it
25:01take care about it
25:12you
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