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00:00Macron was always the cleverest person in any room. Trump was always the most powerful and the
00:05most sort of interesting. I always had a soft spot for Angela Merkel. I found a very sensible
00:11down-to-earth and with a sort of slightly naughty sense of humour.
00:18Welcome to In The Room Lessons from Number 10. This is our summer series on what it's really
00:23like to work behind that famous black front door. My name is Claire Watson. I'm a former
00:27special advisor to Theresa May and Boris Johnson. And I'm Helen McNamara, the former Deputy
00:32Cabinet Secretary. This week I'm delighted that we're joined by Peter Hill, a senior civil servant
00:37who held big roles at the Home Office, the Foreign Office, and he was Theresa May's Principal
00:42Private Secretary, which is how we met. So for those who don't know, the Principal Private
00:46Secretary is the most senior civil servant in Number 10, and your job is to effectively be
00:52at the Prime Minister's right-hand side to run the whole organisation, to manage the special
00:57advisers, and to basically turn your hand to whatever it is that the Prime Minister needs
01:02doing at that particular point.
01:04Peter ran Downing Street during the last two years of Theresa May's premiership, so just
01:09after that very difficult 2017 general election, at the height of the Brexit wars. And he also
01:14sherpered for her at all those key international summits. More on that later. Thankfully, he had
01:19a bit of time to warm up for this role because he'd previously been Director of Strategy at the
01:23Foreign Office, and in the Home Office, he worked in counter-terrorism and security.
01:27After Downing Street, he was the Chief Executive of COP26, the Climate Change Conference, and he now
01:32runs Northstar Advisory, which helps businesses navigate political turmoil, at which he is an expert.
01:38We started off our chat with Peter by taking him on a trip down memory lane to a very fancy
01:43room
01:43in Number 10, where he and Helen met for the first time.
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02:34You might not remember Peter, and there's no reason, because you obviously had a busy job
02:37and it was just a normal day for you, but it was my first time meeting you.
02:40Although we'd obviously been in the civil service together, I don't think we had met properly,
02:43at least, until...
02:45We'd been around a cobra table for the Grenfell response, I remember, but otherwise we hadn't
02:52met in happy circumstances.
02:53No, and your office had arranged our meeting to be in one of the state rooms upstairs, I
03:00don't know why, presumably, like everything...
03:02Oh, that's a flex.
03:02I know.
03:03I was probably trying to impress you or intimidate you.
03:05Well, one or the other, but it was that white dining room, the place that if you're the
03:11first lady of another country, you get to sit on those chairs without the first lady.
03:15Yeah, it's the photos when leaders are snatched together.
03:17Yes, yes, yes.
03:18These are like round the corner from the pillow.
03:20Yeah, the yellow one.
03:21Yeah.
03:21So we were sat there, and I really remember seeing them on these really funny chairs, like,
03:25next to each other.
03:27And then trying to have like a, hello, how are you?
03:30I'm like, obviously me talking like ten to the dozen, and you'd be a bit like, who is this
03:34person?
03:35And then about four seconds in, we started talking about the cabinet office, and I confessed,
03:40confessed, probably very proudly said that my favourite thing that I remembered as advice,
03:44solid advice from working in the cabinet office was before, that it wasn't difficult to be
03:48effective in the cabinet office.
03:50You just had to not touch anyone inappropriately, and don't be a dick.
03:54And then we spent 40 minutes arguing about whether I was right that it was don't be a dick,
03:59or your version of that was don't be a prick, I think.
04:01It was more polite.
04:02High-level stuff.
04:04We spent about 40 minutes debating that.
04:06I thought, I'm going to really enjoy working with this person, because of all the things
04:09we could be talking about, we're basically doing deep pedantry on the right offensive
04:13word to use.
04:13Those are the things that count.
04:14This is what matters.
04:15Those are the things you remember.
04:16It's all that matters, totally.
04:17You don't remember all the blooming investigations we did over there.
04:19Maybe you do.
04:20Maybe you do.
04:21No, I don't remember that.
04:22I do remember that.
04:22Yes, you guys must have had to go full line of duty on leaks and stuff like that.
04:29Leaks, misbehaviour, there was a sort of particular period of clamping.
04:32There was a lot of...
04:33Clamping down on misbehaviour.
04:35I mean, why people can't keep their hands to themselves?
04:37Oh, you're thinking of Pestminster.
04:38Yes.
04:39Do you remember the spreadsheet of bad behaviour?
04:41I try not to, but yeah.
04:42I mean, not just that.
04:43There was a lot of people who ought to know better, not knowing better or behaving better.
04:49Well, thankfully, it's improved enormously.
04:52Politics has been entirely cleaned up, Peter.
04:54I don't know what you're talking about.
04:55We did a great job.
04:56We did a great job.
04:57We did a great job.
04:57I can remember our first meeting.
04:59Well, you won't remember this at all, actually, because for our audience, I was a very junior
05:05baby spad.
05:07Peter, of course, had come in as the boss of the building.
05:09He'd been at the foreign office.
05:10He'd been at the home office.
05:10He was doing these three jobs.
05:12And although we came in at the same time, I think we might have said a sort of brief
05:16hello.
05:17We didn't have a proper conversation until one of the evenings that autumn, autumn 2017,
05:22where I don't know why, but I went into the outer office outside the prime minister's office
05:28and she was over in parliament in Brexit, Brexit war chaos.
05:33I can't remember what was happening.
05:35It would have been one of the votes or something.
05:36And I came in and I said, just read the most interesting story in the Daily Mail about
05:43a man who has just died on the operating table having a botched penis enlargement.
05:49And you and your deputy stared in complete shock at me.
05:53And it's because Theresa May was standing behind me.
05:57He'd come rushing around with his hot news.
06:00A botched what?
06:01And then I had to try and as people are picking up, I'm not very good at just like vacating.
06:07So I tried to like explain what happened, what penis enlargement might entail.
06:12And eventually we're like, OK, thank you.
06:14I think you can go now.
06:18Theresa would have loved that.
06:19Well, I think it was it was perhaps some like relief during quite quite a busy period.
06:24But that stuck in my mind is just sort of, oh, God, I'll just never live this down.
06:29And every time I walk past that room, I used to scuttle past after that because I thought, oh, God,
06:34that you're going to get me chucked out.
06:36I was going to say you wouldn't have made her day.
06:37You might have made her hour.
06:38She loved Gavin and I were once there was a European council when, you know, Teresa was in the council
06:42working very hard doing whatever.
06:44And Gavin and I had found a, you know, a sabote football table and were playing each other repeatedly.
06:53And the head of ops knew this and did not lead the prime minister through the officially sanctioned entrance where
06:59we could see her coming at a distance, but brought her up the back stairs.
07:02So she could find me and Gavin playing table football while she was sweating it in a European council.
07:07She's busy, busy.
07:08And then her chief of staff.
07:09It's Gavin Barwell who was her chief of staff at the time.
07:11Right.
07:11So her two most senior people.
07:13Great.
07:15Yeah.
07:16So that pleased her.
07:17And it's important to decompress, though, in these roles.
07:18It definitely is.
07:19And you are kind of on the pitch of sorts, I guess.
07:22Very good.
07:23You're welcome.
07:24I'm here all week.
07:25Obviously, our podcast is called In the Room.
07:27Yes.
07:28And you have been in some very, very interesting rooms in Buckingham Palace and the White House and Baumol and
07:34obviously in Downing Street.
07:36Can you tell us what it's like, particularly with these world leader get togethers, how it feels?
07:42Who's the most powerful person you've kind of observed or come across?
07:46Any particularly awkward or weird or interesting moments?
07:52Well, I mean, Trump was always the most powerful and the most sort of interesting.
07:59I always had a soft spot for Angela Merkel.
08:02It's not something sort of many.
08:04This is big news.
08:05Not something.
08:06I love a boxy jacket as well.
08:08I mean, she's obviously not flavor of the month now after sort of Germany's Russia policy and so on.
08:13But I found a very sensible down to earth and with a sort of slightly naughty sense of humor.
08:21Well, not in that sense, Cleo.
08:25Macron was always the cleverest person in any room and I think they had a good relationship.
08:29But I think she found him a little bit wearing occasionally.
08:32I think we're at Salzburg.
08:34I think the informally EU summit was just after the US had pulled out of the Iranian nuclear deal.
08:38And we were trying to shore up European support and agreeing which leader would sort of shore up which bits
08:44of the council.
08:45And we got to the Austrians and everyone just assumed that Merkel would pick up the Austrian chancellor.
08:53Instead, she said, yes, Kurtz, he is very young, like you, Emmanuel.
08:57You should talk to him.
08:59I thought that's great.
09:00That's nice to be patronizing.
09:01You guys can put your Nintendos down and talk to each other.
09:06Who else?
09:07Putin.
09:08We had a sort of nice hour with Putin.
09:12Yes.
09:13So this would have been, I guess, 2019.
09:16So Salisbury was sort of spring 2018.
09:19I think this would have been the G20 in 2019.
09:23I think the foreign policy and the defense people felt that we should have a relationship with the Russians.
09:28And so slightly, I think, against her natural inclination, Teresa was persuaded that she should see Putin in order to
09:36say, don't do it again.
09:39And if you do, we'll catch you and you'll suffer.
09:43That's the way that you build a relationship with someone.
09:46Well, I think it was that needed to be done in order to then think, well, we might be able
09:51to have conversations about other things.
09:53So that was the sort of nature of this slightly uncomfortable meeting.
09:58It was in the margins of the G20 in, you'd have to sort of, autumn, I guess.
10:03Well, not literally in the corridor, presumably.
10:05No, they have rooms.
10:06The margins, there's lots of rooms for these in the margins.
10:08So there you are in breakout room B with Theresa May and Vladimir Putin.
10:13Yeah.
10:13And he was sort of, sort of had his usual smirk on throughout the whole thing.
10:17How many flunkies does he travel with in that situation?
10:20He had a lot of, he had a lot of flunkies.
10:22Do you think he's had a lot of work done?
10:24By then, he was clear he'd had some, he had some work done.
10:28Theresa May must be like a foot taller than him.
10:30Yes, yes.
10:31She was towering over him as they stood next to each other for the obligatory photo.
10:35I think Theresa by then was on her.
10:37It was clear that she wasn't going to be prime minister for very much longer.
10:41And I think Putin treated it as a, yeah, I've got to sit through this and then we'll move on.
10:47What do you remember about the kind of end days of working for Theresa May?
10:51Well, I mean, it had been coming, I suppose, you know, the writing was on the wall.
10:54If you're trying to do something that's somewhere between difficult and impossible, it's better to have a majority in parliament.
11:01And without it, it's just you're fighting on too many fronts.
11:05So I think it had been clear for a while what was going to happen.
11:09It couldn't quite tell when or how it was going to end, but it had been clear for a while.
11:14And then when it happened, I think there was a sense of what are you going to do with the
11:17time you've got and the limited political capital.
11:21And she did a lot with it.
11:22Yeah.
11:22So she, you know, the House sort of came up with a list of, I can't remember, it was 10
11:28things.
11:28I'm going to say 10.
11:29Let's say that.
11:30Again, it's facts now.
11:31You've said it.
11:32It's facts.
11:32And I think it was something on education, policy and mental health and injustice and, of course, net zero.
11:42And I don't know how many of them we got, but certainly, you know, some.
11:46I think we got seven out of ten.
11:47Did we?
11:47I can remember.
11:48Yeah.
11:48It's a new fact.
11:49It's a new fact.
11:49It's true now.
11:50Good magic numbers.
11:52So it just shows you can do some things even when you've got very little political capital.
11:58If actually you found a spot where there's enough consensus and it's just a question of devoting your attention to
12:04it.
12:04I mean, that was one of the tragedies, I think, of her premiership.
12:07And I think prime ministers subsequently have discovered it, that if stuff going on outside is all consuming, then what
12:14you're trying to do domestically just notches down the list.
12:19And that's what happened to her premiership to some extent.
12:22And I would argue to some extent it's happened to British prime ministers afterwards as well.
12:26It's just harder to focus on the domestic when you're having to fight metaphorical or literal external engagements.
12:35I don't know how you felt watching kind of the end days of Keir Starmer's premiership, but I definitely felt
12:40massive amounts of sympathy for what it's actually like to work in the building in those periods of time.
12:47It's actually much more emotional from my memory than you would think.
12:50It's like sad.
12:50You can't help feeling like you've let the boss down on the civil service side.
12:53But whatever's happened, you want to keep the prime minister in place.
12:56And when that's not worked out, you feel a bit emotional about it, I think.
13:00Well, your job, I mean, the point of that building is remarkably simple compared to lots of other bits of
13:05government, which is to serve the prime minister and to help them deliver their agenda and what they've been elected
13:11to do.
13:11And when you're unable to do that, I mean, it hits the political staff, obviously, particularly hard.
13:17But number 10 is an unusually integrated beast.
13:19I mean, the divisions between political and civil service staff are much less than they are in a normal department.
13:25So, you know, everybody feels it when the time is up, particularly if you feel as every departing prime minister
13:32feels it's come too soon and they had more to do.
13:34And it's a bit unfair.
13:35One of the memories that I've really, that's definitely lodged in my head from that, the literal day of the
13:40transition between Theresa May and Boris Johnson is all of that.
13:44And you did it, you know, sparing your blushes.
13:46You did a brilliant job of leading all of that and holding it and giving the space for people to
13:50be both like sad and bothered.
13:51But also, that's great, lads.
13:53We've got, this is what we're doing now.
13:55Dry your eyes.
13:56We need to get on with our work.
13:57And that thing that you kind of very few people get to do this is you stand there and you
14:01clap the prime minister, the departing prime minister out with real feeling because you kind of, especially what kind of
14:07what she'd gone through, you sort of think, well, massive thank you.
14:10And then you stand there and you wait and you watch on telly the new prime minister at Buckingham Palace.
14:16And then they come back and then you clap the next guy into the building.
14:19It's the weirdest, like, 40 minutes, hour of your working life, I think.
14:24Yeah, and if you're the PPS, you go with the departing prime minister to the palace for them to tender
14:30their resignation.
14:30And then you drop them off at one entrance and go to another bit and you wait for the new
14:35prime minister to come out and get in the car and follow them to Downing Street.
14:39I didn't know that.
14:40That's like speed dating.
14:41Yeah, you don't have sort of lots of time to go from sort of grief to joy.
14:47But I think that I think that's the hallmark of a really quality senior civil servant is just no feelings.
14:57You're all sociopaths.
15:02So we've got a new sheriff in town now in the form of Andy Burnham and you've experienced the transfer
15:08of power from one prime minister to another in a sort of peaceful handover, no general election.
15:13What do you think are the classic mistakes that a prime minister and indeed their team tends to make in
15:19those first, let's say, two months?
15:23I think you often make mistakes before you've even realized you're making decisions.
15:27And I think I've seen a number of prime ministers coming and do that.
15:30So not boxing yourself in is quite important.
15:33You need to give a sense of where you're going, but without being too specific, because I think before you
15:39really understand what you're facing,
15:41before the Treasury has really said just how bad the books are or till you've got under the bonnet of
15:46a particular bit of policy and realized, really understood what the problems are,
15:49how you can say things, make commitments, which come back to bite you in the bum.
15:53And I think Andy Burnham did quite a good job before he came in of avoiding anything too specific.
16:00I think the other is understanding the nature of your power as prime minister, which is both less and more
16:07than you think.
16:07So the power of the pulpit, which is what you've got, and then you've got patronage, which is giving and
16:12taking away roles and so on.
16:15And I think really understanding, having some view and some idea of how the building works and how it can
16:21amplify your power is really important.
16:22And it can take a bit of time for prime ministers to understand that.
16:27And as everybody says, you lose power, power seeps away quite quickly.
16:31So I think coming in without an understanding of what you can do in the role and how you can
16:36use that building to pursue your agenda,
16:40even if you haven't sort of nailed it to the door, I think is important.
16:47People talk a lot about Number 10 being a terrible place to work and it's impossible and blah, blah, blah.
16:51But what's your view on all of that?
16:53Yeah, you wouldn't start from here.
16:54I mean, you would never design that building to run a country from, but it is the building we've got.
16:59And, you know, everyone comes in and thinks, well, you know, maybe we'll move out or knock some walls down.
17:06Just don't do that.
17:08Just make it.
17:09You can make it work, work with what you've got.
17:11The building is not the thing that's stopping Britain being well governed.
17:14It may or may not help, but it's not the thing that's getting in the way.
17:18And so either either take a decision early on and, you know, work out where you're going to move to
17:25and how you're going to work and deal with the implications.
17:27Or if if as the real preference of every prime minister today is you're not going to move, just stop
17:32talking about it and just make the building work as best as you can.
17:37You know, ideally control of the aircon and the heating a bit more regularly would be brilliant.
17:42And the mice and the mice.
17:43I don't I didn't mind the mice.
17:45I thought they were mainly friendly.
17:47They'd give the cat something to do.
17:49I mean, not catch them, obviously.
17:51Watch them pass.
17:53Watch them pass.
17:53I quite like that.
17:55The menagerie that is really down the street.
17:57Have you got any top tips for the prime minister's principal private secretary for this 100 day period?
18:04I mean, I never give advice.
18:06Having said that.
18:07My first thing.
18:08My first advice is don't give advice.
18:10Never give advice to your successor.
18:12And crucially don't listen to any.
18:14Yeah.
18:15No, I think the if the if the if things were working well, the system treats the prime minister as
18:22a decision making machine.
18:23That's their point is to do all the things that the rest of the system can't do and take decisions.
18:28And someone has to remember they're also human being who needs to sleep, eat, feel, you know, that they're getting
18:35some something more than just bits of paper and then being required to put a tick or.
18:39So I think that is the PPS is important to that is reminding themselves and the building that you also
18:45need to treat the prime minister as a as a person and sort of understand them.
18:50You know, like I say, you don't have to be best friends, but you need to interact with them as
18:53a as a human being.
18:56And you've got to be you need to have enough of a relationship so that when the doors closed, you
19:02can talk to them about almost anything.
19:04I mean, I've had to talk to prime ministers about things which are not really anything to do with being
19:11a civil servant or being a principal private secretary.
19:13But I thought it was important that I said something to them in order to serve them as prime minister.
19:19And you can only do that if you've got a relationship where they'll take it.
19:23They may not agree with you.
19:25Well, like I just don't like your shoes.
19:30I think Peter's pretty brave, but not that brave.
19:32With Teresa, that handbag does not go.
19:36She took it well, I thought.
19:37You said earlier that you found particularly working with Teresa that external events prevented her from being able to have
19:45a sort of laser focused domestic agenda.
19:49Andy Burnham has said that he wants to have a domestic agenda first and he's slightly indicated he's not that
19:55interested in foreign affairs.
19:56So how would you set him up to succeed internationally with your Sherpa hat on?
20:01Well, I think he'll discover very quick.
20:03I don't think he'll need to be told.
20:05I think he'll understand that he needs to show that he can get a grip of and do the international.
20:10There's just no way around it for a modern prime minister.
20:12Too many things come to the prime minister's desk.
20:14They're not.
20:15I mean, the foreign office is important.
20:16Foreign secretary is important.
20:18But so much diplomacy and international stuff is now done at leader level.
20:21He's not going to be able to avoid that.
20:23So I'd be very surprised if he's not devoting quite a lot of time to foreign affairs quite quickly.
20:29And some of it you just don't get a choice about.
20:32However much you might want to focus on the domestic.
20:34And that is one of the consequences of having a much more disrupted world external environment is that I'm afraid
20:41it's much harder work to focus, to keep focus on the domestic.
20:45And just as on the external, there's so many things which only the prime minister can sort on the domestic.
20:50So I wouldn't expect him to be a sort of domestic prime minister and I'm going to leave foreign affairs
20:57to my foreign secretary.
20:58I don't think that is an option.
21:00Also, I mean, every cabinet secretary, I think, says to most prime ministers or maybe not everyone, but most of
21:05them say, don't do this foreign stuff.
21:07There's no votes in it.
21:08It won't get you reelected.
21:10And they all find that one way or the other, they can't quite, you know, escape it.
21:14So I suspect the same will be be true of of of Andy Burnham as prime minister.
21:20And within the first few weeks, he will have spent a lot of time with defense, security, intelligence, national security
21:28people.
21:30And he'll realize that even when other bits of the government don't feel like they're working very well, that bit
21:36of government tends to work.
21:38I mean, not universally, but tends to work quite effectively, quite efficiently.
21:42And I think prime ministers appreciate the sort of comfort and reassurance that gives them.
21:46Yeah.
21:47And I think sometimes it feels a bit like that conversation we've all been in where prime ministers periodically say
21:52it's totally ridiculous that we're starting every morning meeting with talking about the media.
21:56And we shouldn't be doing that.
21:58We should be having deep dives into policy and why are we so distracted by all of this stuff?
22:02It feels a lot to me like kind of, well, I'm not going to do anything on foreign policy.
22:06It's like you actually, you sort of have to.
22:08It's the bath in which you swim.
22:09So you are kind of, you are there.
22:11So you can't avoid it.
22:12It feels like a lot of the foreign leader interactions that just to do with personalities, who naturally gets on
22:19with whom, who doesn't.
22:20And you had the experience of obviously Sherpaing for Theresa May at G7 and G20.
22:26But with that handover to Boris Johnson, did you go to the UN in September 2019?
22:31I went with Boris Johnson, both his first G7 in Biarritz.
22:35And I mean, my preoccupation at that point was that as when he was foreign secretary, I don't think his
22:47colleagues internationally had obviously recognized that he was an enormous domestic political force.
22:56But I don't think they had always taken him seriously as they might as foreign secretary.
23:02Just in case it needs stating, Peter's a diplomat by trade.
23:06And I was very keen that his first G7, both he and they understood that he was now prime minister
23:14and this was a different thing.
23:16But do you think, though, that having gone with the personality of Theresa May, who is perhaps a little more
23:24cautious and she follows an agenda and she has like a series of goals she wants to hit,
23:30whereas I'm partly thinking about how Andy Burnham conducts himself as well, that Johnson obviously had more of a chaotic
23:38but perhaps charismatic personality.
23:42And in terms of brokering deals and getting stuff done, in your experience, is it more helpful to the British
23:50state to have someone who is in that kind of cautious box ticking personality or someone who's, I don't know,
24:01do you call it Riz still?
24:02Do the kids call it Riz?
24:03Riz, five space, five space, I'm thinking Macron and his aviators and that kind of thing.
24:08Do you think it will help Burnham to emulate one or other of those personalities?
24:14Yeah, I mean, in defence of Theresa, I wouldn't say she was box ticking when she was doing sort of
24:19G7, G20.
24:20I didn't know how to describe it.
24:23I mean, I thought she was quite good at the sort of small group in the room stuff.
24:27But anyway, you're right.
24:28The sort of personal relationship is really important.
24:31I think Burnham will be good at that.
24:32And that does matter in those G7 contexts.
24:34No world leader goes into these things parking their national interest at the door.
24:38I think Donald Trump has a view that that's what every world leader does.
24:41And it's their only personal relationship which matters.
24:44If that is what he thinks, he's the only person in the room.
24:46He thinks that everyone else thinks, you know, I've got some national interests that I need to protect as well
24:51as my personal relationship.
24:52But the relationship, particularly in those small group interactions, really, really matters.
24:57And I think actually Boris Johnson was quite effective in that.
25:01And I think Andy Burnham similarly will be effective in that.
25:04And if his colleagues think that he's both personable and can find solutions, then I don't think he'll have any
25:12trouble.
25:12My understanding is that the way these G7 and G20 summits are put together is that there's a lot of
25:18legwork from Sherpas and negotiating teams in the background to draft agreements and so on until you have the actual
25:27summit.
25:28And then the right words are said.
25:29But there's been a lot of work leading up to this moment.
25:33However, you also have this situation now where all the world leaders have each other's numbers and they're texting each
25:37other.
25:38Do you find that helpful that you can have people sort of sending each other memes and texting and chatting
25:45whenever they want without that formal setup of a conversation?
25:49Or, you know, do you prefer with your old Sherpaing hat on that there was a way that kind of
25:54government diplomacy was run and you prefer that sort of more constructed version?
26:00I find because particularly, I mean, this was particularly true, as I said earlier, of dealing with Donald Trump is
26:05that teams are very cautious about what he might think, say, or do on any on any particular issue.
26:11But if, you know, the personal discussion got you to a better place than you got through the system and
26:16and in the end of these negotiations, there's always a limited number of issues that only leaders can deal with.
26:21And whether they do it in face to face or together in a room or sort of through multiple whatsappings,
26:27I don't know, that doesn't matter.
26:29At some point, it all has to come together and everyone is in a room and you sort it out.
26:32But the personal diplomacy and the messaging is just part of it.
26:36And if you've got a prime minister and you've got a decent relationship, I always found I think I always
26:42found you never quite know what you don't know is that they would tell you what they were doing.
26:47And you had visibility of what was going on.
26:50So you didn't get suddenly caught out that you'd sold the family silver and I had to go and explain
26:56to the chancellor why we just committed to X.
26:58That never happened, just to be clear.
27:00Good news.
27:00Not on my watch.
27:01We've gifted our panda.
27:03Can we look forward to a year?
27:05Where do you think we'll be on Burnham's premiership, Ukraine, Iran, anything?
27:11Where do you sort of see the UK and the world in a year's time?
27:15Let's take those in order.
27:17So on Ukraine, I think Putin is running out of road, but seems not to be willing to accept that.
27:24But at some point, I think he's got to accept that he's not going to get more territory at an
27:29acceptable cost and we'll need to find a way out.
27:31But no indication that's going to happen imminently.
27:33So I fear I fear that we could be in the same roughly in the same place or he could
27:40have had.
27:41I don't think it's I don't think he's going to be in a stronger position on Iran.
27:44I mean, we're probably doing exactly the same thing again.
27:47Redux, United States and Iran, I don't think, despite what's happened in recent weeks, now they want to go back
27:53to full-blown war.
27:55And it's a fiasco.
27:56It's a foreign policy fiasco that is going to cost us all to get out of.
28:01And I think that's what we're feeling our way towards.
28:04On the domestic side, I mean, my view is sort of may sound a bit unusual, but I think the
28:10next election is Labour's to lose.
28:13Now, they're capable of losing it, but I don't think I think the fragmentation on the right is a bigger
28:19problem for the right than the fragmentation on the left.
28:22I think reform and Nigel Farage sort of predictions that they'll be walking into number 10, I think, are overweighted.
28:30And I think tactical voting will be a – if you're polling in late 20s, I think tactical voting is
28:35an enormous problem for reform.
28:38So I think it's – I think myself it's unlikely they'll be walking into number 10.
28:43And so, as I say, I think it's Labour's to lose.
28:46And if they can do something, they don't have to be spectacularly successful on the things that the public care
28:53about most, then I think they've got to hope.
28:57And, you know, famous last words, I think Andy Byrne will still be Prime Minister in a year's time.
29:02I realise that's now – it's a ridiculously bold prediction now to make.
29:06I think – I'm not saying we're going to have stability in British politics.
29:10Good news for North Star.
29:12Good news for us.
29:1426 was supposed to be, I think, the year when things started to tick up and look up.
29:18And that's been disrupted both by what's going on in the Gulf and by what we're doing to ourselves.
29:24But I don't think it's impossible that 27 is that year.
29:27So I'm sort of very, very cautiously half glass full about next year.
29:33And as I say, I think we're still going to have disrupted politics.
29:38But I don't think – and if I look across Europe as well, I don't think the triumph of sort
29:44of nationalist populist politics is inevitable at all.
29:46I think it's very real concerns that they're tapping into and people are responding to.
29:51But I think they are – electorally, these forces are not going to have it all their own way.
29:57We've obviously had a lot of cabinet secretaries.
29:59Yes.
29:59And a lot of churn in general amongst senior civil servants and lower down.
30:06And you're obviously out of the civil service now.
30:08But what do you think that also does for our political stability, away from what the mess political parties are
30:15making?
30:16What do you think that's doing for the Rolls-Royce?
30:18Well, the Rolls-Royce is looking pretty ragged, I think it's fair to say.
30:21I mean, we're churning through leadership in politics and in civil service far too fast over the last decade.
30:28You know, there's always a certain amount of change, but we've just been decapitating the senior levels of both far
30:34too quickly.
30:35And, you know, you make corporals generals.
30:37Some of them are brilliant, but a lot of them, you know, needed more time to serve and learn.
30:44So I think it's – the pace of change in churn has been far too fast.
30:50Easy to say, quite hard to do much about.
30:52That's the nature of politics at the moment, but I think a little bit of stability would be a good
30:57thing.
30:58And I think that, you know, leadership, political leadership can help deliver that to the civil service,
31:04even if you don't think it's perfect and you're frustrated with it and you want it to go faster
31:08and all those things that I entirely understand.
31:11I don't think by changing the personnel you're helping yourself.
31:15I think you're debilitating the machine, not serving it.
31:18Do you miss working in Downing Street?
31:21I miss the issues.
31:22I miss the people.
31:23It was a privilege to do that job.
31:25I used to get people –
31:26I thought you were about to say it was a privilege to work with us.
31:28Well, I –
31:28I noticed he didn't say that, Clare.
31:31I gave him an opportunity.
31:32Didn't say that.
31:33Right now he's remembering why.
31:35Let's replay.
31:36Let's replay.
31:37I'll have a second go.
31:37I'll have a second go.
31:40You don't have to do that.
31:41Sorry.
31:44And, you know, I used to get people looking at me with pity and saying, you know, sort of,
31:49goodness, how are you?
31:49Well, you know, I'm tired, but I'm enjoying it.
31:53And if you're not enjoying it, then go and do something else.
31:56There's lots of other people who would – but would I –
31:59Would you go back?
32:00No.
32:01Thank you very much.
32:03I think, you know, I did my time.
32:05I did.
32:05And served my sort of purpose.
32:08And time moves on and other people need to do it.
32:11And, yeah, so it's kind, kind offer from you, Helen.
32:16Yeah, exactly.
32:16Peter, thank you so much for coming in.
32:18We've loved talking to you.
32:19I've had such fun.
32:20Thanks for listening to this episode of Lessons from Number 10.
32:24Remember to follow the show on your podcast player of choice and do leave us a five-star review.
32:28Please do email us with any feedback and questions.
32:30Our email address is intheroom at independent.co.uk.
32:33If you're listening on Spotify, you can also comment under today's episode with your thoughts.
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32:44This podcast is part of the Independent Podcast Network and is produced in association with Next Chapter Studios.
32:50The executive producer is Rod Adderhali and the producer is Sam Durham.
32:53And a special mention to content editor Maya Anoushka, video editor Vali Razer and videographer Dan Faber.
33:00Thanks again to the marvellous Peter Hill for joining us and to you for listening.
33:03And we'll see you next week.
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