- 2 months ago
US President Donald Trump has put a landmark US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement before Congress — but the deal comes with a major geopolitical condition. Washington says the agreement will only move forward if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords and normalises relations with Israel.
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00:08can secret channels achieve what public diplomacy cannot or simply create bigger questions than
00:14answers today two stories of high-stakes power politics unfolding behind the headlines
00:19president donald trump is linking a landmark u.s. saudi nuclear deal to saudi arabia's
00:24recognition of israel using nuclear cooperation as leverage to reshape west asia meanwhile a u.s
00:32military c-17 has quietly landed in moscow followed by reports of cia chief john ratcliffe
00:38holding undisclosed contacts with russian officials even as washington and moscow remain
00:45publicly tight-lipped one is using a nuclear deal to force a diplomatic breakthrough and the other
00:51may be using an intelligence channel to reopen a frozen one so are these the new rules of diplomacy
00:57or signs that the most consequential negotiations are now happening in the shadows hello and welcome
01:04you're watching statecraft with me gita mohan we begin with some disturbing news a sudden flash flood
01:10in nepal has turned a tourist route into a disaster zone with at least 105 indian tourists last reported
01:16among 38 38 384 people who were reported missing according to the nepalese government's last briefing
01:25the flood struck the bhotekoshi river in rasuwa district near the tibet border on wednesday morning
01:30sweeping away houses vehicles bridges and infrastructure at least nine people have died so far while the
01:38search for the missing continues this as we were reporting and looking at all the details and updates
01:43from the government of nepal the nepal tourism board says 291 foreign nationals and 93 nepali citizens
01:51are among those reported missing of the indians identified so far 59 were traveling with samra tours
01:57and travels while another 46 were with leaf holiday that number could rise as authorities confirm more
02:04nationalities the biggest question now is what triggered the sudden surge nepal's flood authorities say
02:10heavy rain in rasuwa alone may not explain it satellite images show significant rainfall on the tibetan side
02:17while officials are also examining the possibility of a glacial lake outburst flood the damage is
02:24enormous timore bazaar and the border customs area were badly hit the friendship bridge at rasuagari was
02:31swept away and several police facilities were damaged rescue teams face another problem flood waters remain too high
02:39for helicopters to land in some areas and the danger has not ended the flood has moved downstream into the
02:46trishuli basin forcing warnings across several nepali districts and alerting bihar in india with more
02:52people still missing the race now is not against the river it's against time as well the indian embassy
02:58nepal has issued emergency contact numbers for indian nationals affected by a sudden flash flood that
03:03struck the bhotekoshi river in rasuwa district early in the day prime minister narendra modi has spoken to
03:09nepali prime minister balen shah and conveyed condolences on the loss of lives due to the flood
03:15in nepal the indian premier also extended all possible humanitarian and relief assistance from the indian
03:20government ministry of external affairs and sources in the government have already conveyed that relief
03:26is on its way to nepal four of india's biggest power players are in four major capitals at the same
03:33time
03:34ajit doval is in beijing jai shankar in moscow piyush goyal in tokyo and nirmala sitaraman in ottawa and
03:41this is no diplomatic coincidence national security advisor ajit doval's mission in china is about the
03:48most urgent problem first the border he's holding talks with wongi on the india-china boundary and
03:53meeting chinese vice president hong zhang the goal is to keep peace along the lac and create enough
04:00stability for xi jinping's expected india visit for the brig summit then comes moscow dr jay shankar is
04:07meeting russia's top leadership as pressure from washington grows over india's russian oil and
04:13defense ties his task is simple protect the india-russia relationship secure energy and
04:19defense interests and make sure outside pressure does not dictate indian policy in tokyo piyush goyal is
04:27leading india's biggest ever business delegation to japan with more than 200 companies the focus is
04:33investment semiconductors manufacturing clean energy and stronger supply chains and then there is union
04:41minister for finance nirmala sitaraman who's also on an official visit to canada and usa from august 25th
04:47to september 2nd the mission aims at strengthening bilateral economic and financial partnerships
04:52deepening investment linkages and advancing cooperation on shared global economic priorities
04:58according to the ministry during the first leg of her tour in toronto canada sitaraman will take part
05:04in the inaugural economic and financial dialogue alongside canada's minister of finance and national
05:09revenue francois philippe the ministry noted that this forum will provide an avenue for both sides to
05:18discuss macroeconomic trends financial sector ties and mutual investment put all four together and the
05:24strategy becomes clear china gets border management russia gets strategic reassurance japan gets deeper
05:30economic ties and and us and canada get enhanced economic cooperation india is not choosing one camp and
05:38abandoning the others it is playing all different sides of the board at a time when global power is
05:45splitting into competing camps delhi's message is blunt india will deal with everyone protect its
05:50interests and decide its partnerships on its own terms a political clash is brewing in new york over a
05:58planned appearance by rss chief mohan bhagwat new york mayor zohran mamdani says he does not support
06:04bhagwat's august 29th event at madison square gardens but there is a catch mamdani admits he is unsure whether
06:11new york city has the legal authority to stop what organizers describe as a private gathering the event
06:18is expected to draw around 5 000 people and it has already triggered protests from interfaith and civil
06:24rights groups bhagwat is in the united states of america as part of the rss centenary year global outreach
06:30his tour also includes canada and britain asked whether the madison square garden event should be
06:36cancelled mamdani was blunt he said and i quote i don't support the rally but questioned whether the
06:43city has jurisdiction to cancel it the indian american mayor then made the issue deeply personal
06:48he said he grew up with a vision of india as a pluralistic society and a secular republic a country
06:54where everyone belongs mamdani said he was incredibly troubled by what he called the rise of an exclusionary vision
07:03you know i also stand here as the first indian american mayor in our city's history and my
07:09mother's family is all still in india and the vision of india that i was taught by my my family
07:18and the one
07:19that i i grew up being very familiar with was of a pluralistic society of a secular republic that believed
07:26in the belonging of each and every person who was from india and it has been incredibly troubling to
07:34see the rise of a movement that is predicated on an exclusionary vision of of any country frankly
07:41and so it is one that i find myself in deep opposition to uh not only as an indian american
07:46but
07:46also as the mayor of a city that believes deeply in the belonging of each and every person no matter
07:51their color their creed their religion their faith wherever they're from
07:55should the rally be canceled though at msg this weekend i i don't support the rally but i don't
08:01know if the city has any jurisdiction on canceling a private event several organizations including
08:06hindus for human rights the indian american muslim council and the interfaith center of new york
08:11have opposed bhagwat's appearance and urged madison square garden to cancel it but the organizers ahead
08:18forum are defending the program they call it the universal oneness celebration built around the message
08:24that the world is one family and that is what makes this confrontation so politically charged
08:30one side sees bhagwat's appearance as a celebration of indian identity and global outreach the other
08:36sees it as a platform for an ideology they consider exclusionary and in the middle stands new york's indian
08:42origin mayor opposing the message but questioning where the city hall can stop the event
08:57so donald trump is putting a price tag on saudi arabia's nuclear ambitions and the price is israel
09:04trump has now sent the landmark u.s saudi civil nuclear deal to the congress but washington is making
09:10something very clear riyadh does not get the deal unless it joins the abraham accords and normalizes
09:16relations with israel think about that a nuclear agreement is being turned into a diplomatic bargaining
09:23chip trump is effectively telling mohammed bin salman you want america's nuclear technology then
09:29give america what it really wants israeli saudi normalization the 30-year agreement was signed in july by
09:36u.s energy secretary chris wright and saudi energy minister prince abdulaziz bin silman it would allow
09:43american companies to play a major role in building saudi arabia's civil nuclear program
09:48but a senior u.s official has made trump's position crystal clear the agreement will only move ahead if
09:54riyadh joins the abraham accords let us be clear about what trump is attempting here this is not simply about
10:01nuclear reactors it is about reshaping west asia washington wants saudi arabia to recognize israel
10:08riyadh wants a pathway towards a palestinian statehood and sitting right in the middle is
10:14benjamin netanyahu because israel's prime minister has repeatedly opposed palestinian statehood so how
10:20exactly does trump expect riyadh to cross that bridge saudi arabia has repeatedly linked normalization
10:27with israel to progress towards palestinian statehood and after the gaza war that position
10:33has only become harder riyadh may want closer ties with washington it may want american nuclear technology
10:40but signing the abraham accords without a credible palestinian pathway could carry a huge political
10:46cost for the saudi leadership and then there is the nuclear question this is where the deal gets
10:52seriously complicated the agreement is a section 123 pact under u.s law it creates the legal framework
10:59for american companies to export civilian nuclear technology to saudi arabia but congress will want
11:05to know one thing what happens if saudi arabia eventually wants to enrich uranium according to a
11:12report published in the wall street journal the pact includes a two-year u.s saudi study into the
11:18possibility of establishing an enrichment facility inside the kingdom the facility would be operated
11:25by american companies saudi arabia would not receive sensitive enrichment technology but critics
11:31are worried because enrichment is the technology that can sit dangerously close to a weapons capability
11:38and saudi arabia has already sent a warning to the world its leaders have indicated that if iran
11:43acquires a nuclear weapon the kingdom could pursue one too think about what that means iran develops the
11:50bomb saudi arabia follows and suddenly west asia is staring at a potential nuclear race that is why
11:58congress cannot simply look at this as an energy deal it has to examine the inspection regime the
12:04safeguards the enrichment pathway and any secret understandings attached to the agreement because once
12:10nuclear infrastructure is built reversing course becomes extremely difficult and there is another
12:16piece of this puzzle that washington cannot ignore saudi arabia formalized the mecca alliance with
12:22pakistan and turkey last month pakistan has at least 170 nuclear weapons it is not a signatory to the
12:29nuclear non-proliferation treaty or the npt and that defense relationship leaves open questions about
12:35whether pakistan could provide saudi arabia with a nuclear umbrella put these pieces together and
12:41the picture becomes uncomfortable saudi arabia wants american nuclear cooperation it has security ties
12:47with nuclear-armed pakistan it is watching iran's nuclear ambitions closely and now trump wants riyadh
12:54to normalize relations with israel in exchange for moving the nuclear deal forward this is where trump's
13:00strategy gets fascinating he is effectively saying to saudi arabia you want america's nuclear technology
13:06then give washington something in return recognize israel join the abraham accords help redraw west
13:14asia it is classic trump diplomacy make the deal bigger link issues together create leverage and try
13:21to turn one negotiation into a much larger geopolitical breakthrough but riyadh is not without leverage either
13:29saudi arabia controls enormous energy wealth it sits at the heart of the arab and muslim world it has
13:35strategic ties with washington beijing islamabad and others and crown prince mohammed bin salman knows
13:42that saudi arabia is not simply another american partner waiting for instructions
13:47that is why the palestinian issue could become the deal breaker trump may want an israeli saudi breakthrough
13:53natan yahoo may want normalization without palestinian statehood riyadh has signaled that it wants the opposite
14:00so washington is trying to bridge three very different positions and congress now gets a front row seat
14:07lawmakers will have to decide whether this agreement strengthens american influence or creates a dangerous precedent
14:13because the united states has spent decades trying to prevent sensitive nuclear technology from spreading across
14:19west asia if saudi arabia gets an enrichment pathway even under american supervision other countries will
14:26be watching iran will be watching turkey will be watching egypt will be watching and the message could
14:33be simple if one regional power gets closer to the nuclear fuel cycle others may demand the same
14:39privilege and that is the real danger west asia already has enough flashpoints gaza iran israel lebanon
14:47syria the gulf now add nuclear hedging to the equation one country's security strategy can quickly become
14:55another country's existential threat yet trump sees an opportunity a saudi nuclear deal saudi israeli
15:02a stronger american presence and perhaps a broader realignment of west asia if he can pull it off
15:10this would be far bigger than a reactor deal it could become one of the defining diplomatic bargains
15:16of his presidency but there is a fundamental question what price is trump willing to pay for that
15:23breakthrough and more importantly what price is congress willing to accept because the united states
15:29cannot simultaneously demand that iran abandon nuclear proliferation while opening a pathway for
15:34saudi arabia to develop potentially sensitive nuclear capabilities washington will have to explain
15:40exactly where the red lines are the saudi nuclear deal is therefore not just about nuclear power it is
15:47about israel palestine iran pakistan american influence and the future balance of power in west asia
15:54asia trump has put the deal before congress now the hard part begins riyadh must decide whether joining
16:01israel's abraham accords is worth the nuclear prize congress must decide whether the safeguards are strong
16:08enough and washington must decide whether this is a diplomatic masterstroke or a gamble that could
16:15accelerate a middle eastern nuclear race trump wants a historic deal saudi arabia wants nuclear power and
16:22security israel wants normalization iran wants to preserve its regional position and congress wants
16:30answers because once the nuclear genie is out of the bottle diplomacy may not be enough to put it back
16:36and that is why this deal could reshape west asia long after trump netanyahu and mohammad bin salman are
16:45gone the question is no longer whether saudi arabia wants nuclear power it clearly does the question is
16:51whether washington can turn that ambition into a diplomatic breakthrough without turning west
16:57asia into a nuclear chessboard a u.s military jet secretly landed in moscow and then the cia chief
17:05reportedly appeared when a u.s military c-17 suddenly flew from riga into moscow without an announcement or
17:11explanation the internet did what it does best it went wild the aircraft came from the area of joint base
17:19andrews one of america's key hubs for senior government air travel then came reports of a
17:25u.s diplomatic motorcade then came the bigger bombshell cia director john bradcliffe was reportedly
17:32in moscow washington had no comment moscow first claimed it had no information suddenly a routine cargo
17:39flight looked less like cargo and more like a message in a very expensive metal envelope so why
17:46did a u.s military aircraft quietly enter moscow why was ratcliffe reportedly there and what exactly
17:52was important enough to keep off the diplomatic record start with the aircraft because this is where
17:59the mystery begins the plane was a u.s air force c-17a globe master 3 operating under call sign
18:06rch
18:06455 flight tracking data showed it departed riga at around 8 15 the morning and landed at moscow's
18:14vanukowa airport shortly after 10. that was unusual the aircraft had arrived in riga on august 23rd after
18:23flying from camp springs maryland where joint base andrews is located andrews is closely associated with
18:30senior u.s government air transport including air force one but does that prove a senior official was on
18:36board no a c-17 is a heavy transport aircraft it can carry personnel vehicles communications
18:43equipment and other logistical support so washington could send the plane ahead of a high level visit
18:50without putting the vip on board the aircraft itself raised the mystery it did not solve it
18:56then moscow went silent the kremlin initially said it had no information about the aircraft kremlin's
19:03spokesperson dmitry peskov also said no meetings with u.s administration officials were planned in moscow that
19:09week media reported today that an usaf military transport aircraft has landed in venukovo airport
19:17could kremlin provide a comment and unveil details of a certain new visit no i do not possess such
19:24information i can only tell you that there were contacts between the special services i can tell you
19:30that there were no meetings with the president of russia that is all i can tell you on this subject
19:36naturally president putin is briefed on everything immediately washington was hardly more helpful the
19:44u.s european command had no information to offer while the cia pentagon and air force declined to
19:50comment so officially there was no trip except there was a plane and then there was the motorcade video
19:58from moscow showed a convoy of vehicles including cars with red diplomatic plates moving through central
20:03moscow then came the name that changed everything john ratcliffe cbs news reported that the cia director
20:11was in moscow for meetings citing people familiar with the situation axios separately confirmed the
20:17highest level visit by a trump administration official to russia since january citing a u.s official
20:24the cia did not comment so why would the cia chief make a rare unannounced trip to moscow
20:32because ratcliffe is not a conventional diplomat the cia has already played a role in sensitive u.s
20:38russia contacts ratcliffe personally negotiated the april 2025 release of u.s russian dual national
20:45senior carolina the agency also played a role in the 2024 prisoner exchange that brought wall street
20:52journal reporter ivan gushkovich and marine veteran paul wellen home that gives ratcliffe something
21:00conventional diplomats do not always have an intelligence channel and there is precedent
21:05former cia director william burns traveled to moscow in november 2021 and met senior russian officials
21:11including president vladimir putin to warn him against invading ukraine so when a cia director
21:19suddenly appears in moscow during a stalled war the obvious question is not simply why moscow it is why now
21:26the ukraine talks have effectively stalled u.s mediated negotiations remain stuck with the
21:32sides still far apart on core issues reports have also suggested that washington and european officials
21:39prepared a fresh proposal for moscow that makes a secret channel entirely plausible could ratcliffe have
21:46gone to moscow to reopen the ukraine channel possibly could he have carried a warning also possible
21:52could washington have wanted to test whether moscow was ready for movement before making anything
21:58public again the circumstances fit and there is another remarkable detail according to several
22:06american news reports ahead of ratcliffe's reported trip the united states told ukraine that a senior
22:12delegation would travel to moscow and asked kiev to suspend strikes until the delegation left
22:17according to a senior ukrainian official why ask ukraine to pause strikes during the visit the
22:24obvious answer is security but it also suggests washington wanted the moscow trip to happen without
22:30an incident that could wreck whatever conversation was taking place behind closed doors then there is
22:37the kremlin's changing message first peskov said there was no planned meetings with u.s officials
22:42and that he had no information about the aircraft later when asked about ratcliffe's reported visit
22:47he described it as contacts between security services that is a very different message first no
22:54information then security service contacts so was moscow denying a diplomatic meeting while quietly
23:01acknowledging an intelligence channel that is the simplest explanation for the apparent contradiction
23:07there's also another theory iran and the strait of hormus reports circulating online claim ratcliffe's
23:13moscow visit involved a u.s request for russia to pressure iran into reopening the strait of hormuz
23:20but stop right there that claim is unverified till now the theory says russian officials briefed iran that
23:28washington wanted moscow to pressure tehran to reopen hormuz and warn that russian banks traders and
23:36shipping entities linked to iranian oil gold and aviation could face sanctions under an operation called
23:42economic outcast according to the same unverified reporting russia rejected the request and told
23:49iran the threatened measures would have limited consequences did ratcliffe actually discuss this
23:55in moscow there is no confirmation but the theory matters because iran is a major moscow ally in west
24:02asia while the iran war has created another major point of tension between washington and moscow
24:08so what's the trip about ukraine iran or both we do not know but we do know why the c
24:14-17 matters the
24:16aircraft is built to move people vehicles equipment and support packages over long distances that makes
24:23it useful for sensitive missions a c-17 can bring the backstage operation with it vehicles communications
24:30equipment personnel and logistical support that brings us to the biggest question what was important enough
24:37to send the cia director to moscow without a public announcement the answer is not confirmed but the
24:43facts point to something more sensitive than ordinary diplomacy there was no publicly announced u.s russia
24:49meeting the kremlin initially denied knowledge of the aircraft a u.s military c-17 flew into moscow a
24:56diplomatic motorcade appeared cia director john ratliff was reportedly in the city washington reportedly
25:02warned ukraine to pause strikes until the delegation departed and kremlin later acknowledged contacts
25:09between security services that does not prove a secret peace deal it does not prove an ultimatum and
25:16it does not prove the unverified iran hormuz theory but it does show that a high level u.s russia
25:22intelligence channel was active at a moment when public diplomacy had stalled ukraine is the strongest
25:29obvious possibility because peace talks have stalled and a fresh proposal was reportedly in preparation
25:36so what was the message most likely it involved issues too sensitive to put on the public diplomatic
25:42table ukraine is the strongest obvious possibility because the peace process has stalled and a fresh
25:47proposal is reportedly in preparation iran and hormuz remain a separate unverified theory but one thing is
25:53clear the strangest part of the story is not that a c-17 landed in moscow it is that the
25:59plane landed
26:00the officials said almost nothing the spy chief reportedly appeared the kremlin first claimed
26:06ignorance and then acknowledged security contacts and everyone expected the world not to notice
26:12unfortunately for them flight trackers exist and apparently so does the internet that's all in this
26:19edition of statecraft before we go ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky met former american
26:24professional boxer terence crawford in kiev on tuesday where the undefeated former world champion
26:31presented him with a puppy named freya as a gesture of solidarity with ukraine footage released on tuesday
26:38by the ukrainian presidential press service showed crawford handing over the american pitbull terrier
26:43puppy during a meeting at the presidential office take a look at the visuals goodbye and take care
27:41to the
27:43.