00:00Why are your television-obsessed friends saying that this is the tightest race of the year?
00:03Well, let me explain.
00:04The Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series category contains two people who are nominated in 2025,
00:09one in the category, one outside,
00:11a person who was nominated and won Best Picture at the Oscars this year,
00:16one of the biggest movie stars in the world,
00:18and then also an actress who was criminally overlooked year after year for a previous show.
00:23So, who wins?
00:25So here's where the mental math starts to happen.
00:27The actress who was overlooked in previous years, that would be Ray Seahorn,
00:31who was nominated for Better Call Saul twice,
00:33and she is nominated this year for Plurvis.
00:36She plays Carol Sturka.
00:37She already has won the Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice Award,
00:41but, but, Carrie Russell, who is on her third nomination for The Diplomat,
00:47she won the Actor Award earlier this year, which is voted on by fellow actors.
00:51It used to be called the SAG Awards, now it's the Actor Awards, the whole thing.
00:54So where does that leave us?
00:55Well, for me, it means I need some Advil,
00:57but for everyone else, let's talk about who I think will win.
00:59I'm ready to say with about 60% confidence that I believe it will be Ray Seahorn
01:03who wins the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series, and here's why.
01:07I think Hollywood knows that they messed up bad
01:10with not giving her the right amount of nominations and wins for Better Call Saul,
01:15and then paired with the fact that she is an unstoppable force in Pluribus,
01:20and that it is one of the buzziest shows of the year.
01:23I think that it's, it's, I don't want to say it's in the bag for her 100%,
01:27but it definitely feels like she's the one to be here.
01:31That being said, Carrie Russell is an eight-time nominee who has never once won an Emmy,
01:35and I think with more eyes on season three of The Diplomat, thanks to Bradley Whitford's casting,
01:40which made for a West Wing reunion with Alice and Janney,
01:43I think it's very possible that voting members end up swinging in her favor
01:48because this most recent season was honestly some of the best television I've watched in years.
01:55I tell this to everyone I talk to, but the last like 90 seconds of The Diplomat season three,
01:59I couldn't breathe, and I think the clearest sign of victory for Carrie
02:03is that among her peers at the Actor Awards, she was the winner.
02:06And one more thing on Carrie Russell, she made her debut in the all-new Mickey Mouse Club at 15.
02:10She's been in this industry for 35 years, and in projects like Felicity, Waitress, The Americans.
02:16So I think it's possible that her fellow actors and other Television Academy voting members
02:21look at her and say, the fact that you've been doing this for 35 years
02:24and the most significant wins you've had are a Actor Award earlier this year for the show,
02:28and then a Golden Globe for Felicity decades ago, it could mean that they go and swing for her.
02:37So while I feel about 60% confident that it will be Rey, I do think that 40% is
02:42fighting hard for Carrie.
02:44But let us know in the comments who you think it will be, who you're reading for,
02:47and what category we should break down next.
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