00:00And let me bring in Manish Tiwari now, Congress MP and former minister.
00:05Mr. Tiwari, I appreciate your time.
00:06India just posted 7.8% growth, beating every analyst's estimate.
00:12Congress has spent years demanding the government do better on the economy.
00:16Now that it has, why is the Congress answer to attack the number instead of welcoming it?
00:26Mr. Tiwari, there is a need to understand the Indian economy in a certain perspective.
00:34So 7.8% growth is wealth growth.
00:38But it is 7.8% for whom?
00:43Whom is the economy working for?
00:46Is it working for the ordinary people of India?
00:50Or is it only working for a very select few, what is called the creamy layer at the top?
00:59And let me contextualize the three problems that the Indian economy has from the perspective
01:07of 1.44 billion people who call India their home.
01:12The first is that the wholesale price index and the consumer price index are at a record high.
01:22What this translates into is high cost of daily essentials like onions, like tomatoes, like
01:32other vegetables and cereals of daily use, in addition to articles, which are essential in order to continue
01:44with the everyday activity of life.
01:48Number two, India has a serious job crisis.
01:52And that job crisis manifested itself on the 20th of July, 2026, in the protests, which we saw at Jantar
02:02Mantra.
02:03It was not only about a paper leak, but the underlying frustration, the underlying causes were because of serious economic
02:16stagnation,
02:17whereby people are either unemployed, B, unemployable, or C, underemployed.
02:25And I can substantiate this with numbers.
02:29The third is the crisis of income inequality in the country.
02:34And in fact, that is the most serious problem because the richest 10% in India hold 65% of
02:42its wealth.
02:43The top 1% hold 40% of that 65% and the bottom 50% hold only 15%
02:53of India's wealth.
02:55So, therefore, GDP numbers, which governments exult over, are not a real mirror of the real economy,
03:06which impacts the day-to-day living of people.
03:09You know, Mr. Diwari, you have raised a number of questions with regards to the Indian economy.
03:13The point you made particularly, why isn't it creating jobs or easing prices?
03:18And that's a valid question, certainly.
03:21Don't you think that's a better question to raise?
03:24That is what the Congress should be raising rather than declaring the entire data as fake.
03:31Well, I am not going to get into a he said, she said, Maria, because the Indian economy and its
03:39impact and implications on people is a very, very serious issue.
03:44And allow me to flag one more equally germane and critical challenge, which confronts the Indian economy.
03:53And that is with regard to the fact that despite all the concessions which this government has given to corporate
04:01India,
04:02private capital expenditure is not kicking in.
04:06And I'll give you some numbers to contextualize it.
04:09In the financial year 25-26, public capital expenditure, which really has been driving the Indian economy, was 11.21
04:22lakh frauds.
04:23In 2026-27, government upped this number in the budget to 12.2 lakh frauds.
04:31While private capital expenditure is only 11.44 lakh frauds in the financial year 25-26.
04:41Now, why does this number become important?
04:44This number becomes important because out of a 50 lakh fraud budget or a 52 lakh fraud budget, which the
04:52government has,
04:53it's spending 12.2 lakh frauds on public capital expenditure in order to create capital assets.
05:02Now, that money actually goes away from critical spends on education, on social equity, on gender empowerment,
05:15if the private sector would have stepped up to the plate.
05:18And therefore, if you look at the broader size of the Indian economy, which stands at almost $4 trillion,
05:29for corporate India, a private capital expenditure to be only in the range of 11.44 lakh frauds in the
05:39past fiscal,
05:40is something which is extremely concerning because it means that the engines of the Indian economy are really being fired
05:50by government capital expenditure,
05:52which could be better used elsewhere for the purposes of defense, for spending on critical and emerging technologies,
06:02which will determine the remaining 74 years of the 21st century on social justice or on social empowerment spends.
06:14So, therefore, that is another critical challenge.
06:17And that's why it brings me back to from where I started.
06:21Who is the Indian economy doing well for?
06:25For the people of India or a very select few, the creamy layer at the top?
06:30Since you highlight that, let me share some data.
06:34Manufacturing, operating profits jumped from 9.4% to 21.3% in a single quarter.
06:40That shows that corporate India is booming.
06:42Private consumption grew barely 7%.
06:44That's the real story.
06:47Profits racing ahead of paychecks.
06:50So, the gap between the haves and have-nots is also growing.
06:54So, where is the real India story then, Mr. Tiwari?
06:58That is the real India story.
07:00You know, in fact, you have really painted it for everybody very articulately.
07:06And let me add and supplement to it.
07:08So, any economy has five fundamentals.
07:13Savings, investment, production, consumption and employment.
07:17And now let me give you some figures which contextualize each of these fundamentals.
07:23The savings to GDP ratio in 2010 was 34.3%.
07:29In 2025, it is down to 32.6%.
07:34The investment to GDP ratio in 2007 was 42%.
07:39In 2025, it is 35%.
07:42Your production to GDP ratio in 2006, which is the share of production in the GDP of India was 17%.
07:52In 2025, it's dropped to 13%.
07:56So, the absolute share of manufacturing as a percentage of India's economy dropped by 4% between 2006 and 2025.
08:07And it has barely recovered in 2026.
08:10Your consumption to GDP ratio in 2010 was 65.7%.
08:16In 2025, it is 67.4%.
08:20A lower consumption to GDP ratio is always good for the economy.
08:26For the simple reason, this means that money is either going towards national savings or it is going into investment
08:34rather than into consumption.
08:37Your worker to population ratio in July 2026 was 52.5%.
08:42According to government, 64.3 crore people are currently employed, but 44% of them are in agriculture.
08:52And in a developed economy, the benchmark is that 80% of your population or your workable population should be
09:01employed.
09:02So, therefore, you know, to exalt over a quarter of one number, and that also completely out of context,
09:11just goes to show as to how desperate, if I may use that word, the government is to profile itself
09:19by selectively quoting data, which does not reflect the true state of the economy.
09:24Okay, but there are certain geopolitical realities also, Manish Tiwari.
09:28The world is dealing with a U.S.-Iran conflict, crude oil shocks, global trade tensions,
09:34and most major economies are slowing down or stagnating.
09:37And in that environment, if India has delivered 7.8% growth,
09:41the fastest among major economies, isn't that a genuine achievement?
09:48Well, Maria, this is not the first time that we've dealt with global challenges.
09:54From 2004 to 2014, India's economy clocked 8% year on year,
10:02and that was at the 2005-2006 base rate.
10:06In fact, government has been shifting goalposts, changing the, you know, base years
10:12in order to try and present a more rosy picture of the economy.
10:17And at that point in time, you have the unprecedented global economic meltdown,
10:23which was considered to be the worst crisis that the world economy had faced
10:27after the 1929 Great Depression.
10:31And then, of course, you had the Eurozone crisis.
10:33So, therefore, to hang your quote on the peg of global crises and say that,
10:41oh, in spite of that, we've clocked 7.8%, and that also with a changed base year,
10:49whereby the weightage which is given to different products or different set of products
10:56has also changed considerably is not, in my estimation, a proper way of looking at the economy.
11:06So, while 7.8% may work, you know, for the creamy layer,
11:12for those who are at the top of the pyramid, people who are at the bottom of the pyramid,
11:18who are struggling to find employment, who are barely able to make two ends meet
11:25because of high inflation, as the late Sushma Sarraj used to keep saying,
11:30that is exactly what the situation is today.
11:35And so, therefore, I don't think that the state of the economy has any reason to exult.
11:43I think the triple challenge of lower employability, high cost of living,
11:52coupled with the fact that you have an economy which is being fired by public capital expenditure,
12:00are challenges, are deep structural challenges that you need to address,
12:06and they can't be papered over by the gloss of a certain few-run numbers,
12:12which tend to look rosy, if I can put it in those words.
12:17Mr. Tiwari, my last question to you.
12:19But the base year revision was recommended by an independent technical committee,
12:24not dictated by the government.
12:25So, if you're alleging that the base year itself was changed to manufacture a good number,
12:29then what will be the real assessment of the Indian economy?
12:33I mean, how do you assess the Indian economy there?
12:35So, therefore, this has been an ongoing debate, Maria, for a very, very long time.
12:41You see, it is correct that the base year on which the Indian economy is measured
12:46keeps getting revised periodically.
12:49But what is important is that are you attaching enough weightage
12:54to those products and commodities,
12:57which actually impacts the daily lives of the common person,
13:02or are they getting skewed in terms of those sectors,
13:07for example, mining, for example, certain other very heavy industry,
13:14but niche sectors, which may be registering, you know,
13:19a more than normal or a more than average growth or a high growth rate even.
13:24But that does not translate into the benefits of that economic growth
13:31actually flowing to the people of India.
13:35So, that is really the challenge.
13:36The question is, do these numbers or do these GDP figures,
13:43and I am not talking of the current quarter,
13:46but GDP figures as a whole,
13:48do they reflect the true state of an economy?
13:53And in my humble estimation, they do not.
13:56Manish Tiwari, Congress Member of Parliament,
13:58really appreciate your time.
13:59Thank you for joining us.
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