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00:00First, our first speaker is Elon Musk. As the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon has shown that
00:07conquering challenges of physics and engineering can be easier than cutting through red tape.
00:12And I think his dedication to doing both, however, continues to inspire people around the world.
00:18So thank you, Elon, for joining us. We were just wrapping up our introductory session where we
00:23made clear that under this presidency, you know, we believe that economic growth is one of the
00:29most important drivers for all of us. And we believe that technology is a big piece of that.
00:34So you've been on the front lines of this for quite a while. And I think one of the key
00:39questions,
00:39I think, for the group and something that we wanted to talk to you about was, as you have driven
00:44innovation across multiple countries around the world, you know, what, in your opinion,
00:49separates countries where innovators can successfully turn breakthroughs into deployed technologies
00:55from those where where progress actually stalls? Because I think there's a lot of lessons learned
01:00about what people governments should be doing and what maybe they they shouldn't be.
01:06Well, yeah, I think a lot of people have talked about this. And I think some of it, frankly, is
01:11is pretty straightforward, is that you have to have an environment that's relatively free of
01:18regulation, meaning that new things must be default legal, as opposed to default illegal. So in the EU,
01:27for example, we find that the regulation level is extraordinarily high and things are generally
01:31default illegal. And this inhibits progress of new technologies. It slows it down, doesn't it doesn't
01:39ultimately stop it, but it slows it down quite considerably. There, of course, you need to have
01:47a, you need to have venture capitalists, and an environment that is supportive of new companies,
01:55you can think of new companies like little, like they're like small saplings in a forest. So what
02:03most countries tend to do is they tend to provide too much support to the large existing trees in the
02:10forest, and not enough to the small saplings. But the large trees don't need this.
02:16support. It's the small saplings that do, the startups. And so the system should be generally
02:22biased towards supporting the small, the small trees, as opposed to the large ones. But that
02:31is rarely the case. Because a lot of the large companies have access to, usually they have access
02:39to the leadership of the countries, and the small, the small startups do not. So you really need to
02:45foster the growth of young companies, and take active steps in that regard. And like I said,
02:53make things default legal, not default illegal.
02:57One question that a lot of the countries here face is a question around adoption. I think there's a
03:03general recognition that adopting emerging technologies can be very beneficial to economic
03:09growth, no matter what sort of shape, size of any country is. You know, how do you think about
03:16adoption? What country, what should countries be doing to encourage adoption? Does it go back to the same sort of
03:21regulatory structures? Or how do you think about adoption as a key driver for growth?
03:27Yeah, I think you want to have a lean forward, try new technologies approach to new technologies,
03:34otherwise, as opposed to be somewhat stuck in the past. Naturally, new technologies need to be,
03:43need some encouragement, and I think should be embraced. We are going to see, and are seeing,
03:51in fact, significant productivity gains from artificial intelligence, and we'll see very dramatic gains
03:59in productivity from robotics. You know, things like the Tesla self-driving car is going to be a
04:06tremendous boon, or is a tremendous boon already, to users. And I think humanoid robotics will be
04:16just an incredible change. I think, just to give you some sense of scale here, I think the, I think
04:24AI will
04:25probably increase the global economy by 20 to 30 percent. That's my rough estimate. Meaning, on the order of 20
04:35to 30
04:36trillion dollars per year. And, and AI will be able to do anything digital, anything that does not require
04:43shaping of atoms by hand, probably by the end of next year. So, as, as I'm sure people know, AI
04:52is already
04:54incredibly good at software. And it's getting to the point where AI won't just be good at software, it'll be
05:03what I
05:04call stock fish level good. So, stock fish is a chess program that can beat the world's best chess
05:09players very easily. In fact, at this point, you could run stock fish on your phone, and beat Magnus Carlsen
05:16at chess. So, at some, and somewhat next year, is my prediction, software will be so good, AI software will
05:25be
05:25so good, that it will be stock fish level good. Meaning, that it is impossible for a human to compete
05:30in writing
05:30software with AI. But, like, AI will just crush all humans as software. And I think it will, it will
05:37be
05:38extremely good, possibly stock fish level, but, but, but certainly extremely good at all forms of
05:45engineering and anything digital. Literally, in 12, 12 to 18 months.
05:53One of the stats. Actually, let me just, one more thing, my apologies. The, the, so 20, 30% increase
06:01of total global economy. So, this is quite a lot of prosperity we're talking about here.
06:07I just, just from digital AI, but from robotics, from, from humanoid, basically think of it like a
06:14general purpose robot, robot AI. I think we'll see many multiples of the global economy.
06:21Meaning, like, you, you can increase the economy
06:24by a factor of 10 or more.
06:27These are mind-boggling numbers.
06:29Yeah, I was just about to say that. I mean, one of the stats we gave to the group here
06:32was that,
06:33in the four years since, sort of, ChatGPT was launched, I think we, there's, you know,
06:37over a billion people around the world already using AI. There's been very quick uptake around,
06:41around the country on, around the world on that. I guess the question to you is, I think a lot
06:46of
06:46people think about, sort of, the next chapter being in this, sort of, applied or, or, sort of,
06:50physical AI. Where, where do you see, sort of, robotics trending? How quickly is it going to be
06:54implemented? I think, I remember in the first Trump administration, we were talking about,
06:58sort of, automated factories, and now we're a year later, 10 years later. So, how, how, you know,
07:04how quickly do you think these, these changes are happening in the, sort of, physical AI world?
07:08Yeah. So, anything physical always takes longer than anything which is digital. Digital, you know,
07:13it's, it's, when you solve something digitally, it's the software that you can easily copy across
07:18other, other computers. When it's physical, you've got to build up an entire massive supply chain.
07:23You've got to, you've got to move a lot of, a lot of atoms. And, and supply chains are very
07:29much
07:29global at this point. So, that's why it takes longer. Nonetheless, when you think of humanoid robotics,
07:35the way, the, the, the way you think about it, I think, I, I think the right framework is consider
07:40that the usefulness of a humanoid robot, a general purpose robot, is going to be, um, roughly the, uh,
07:47digital, the, the, the AI software, how, how good is the AI software, times how good is the, uh, AI
07:54chip in
07:54the robot, times how good is the electromechanical dexterity, especially of the hands. Um, now, all three of
08:01those things are improving exponentially. Um, and, and the usefulness of the robot is those, those three
08:06things multiplied by each other. Then, when you make the robots, the robots will, um, um, the, um,
08:14what will, the robots will start manufacturing the robots. So, you get a recursive effect.
08:18So, it, it starts off very, very slowly, but then it grows, um, at an explosive rate. Um, so, if
08:27you,
08:27you say, like, 10 years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots.
08:33Wow. Um, and the productivity per robot will be probably five times that of a human.
08:42Meaning, meaning that the productivity in 10 years of humanoid robots, and I think this is a conservative
08:48estimate, by the way, um, this is, there's one I, I, I wouldn't be willing to, to, to put serious
08:54money
08:54betting on, um, that there will be at least a billion robots in 10 years, and that those robots
09:00will be at least five times the output of a human. Meaning, the, the, the billion humanoid robots
09:05will, will, um, be more productive than all humans combined.
09:11Wow. Um, shifting gears just a little bit to, to, to, to a question that's kind of facing the U
09:18.S. today.
09:18Um, you know, data centers have been, uh, a big political issue over the, uh, over the last, um,
09:24six to eight months here in the United States. And I think there's a, a general understanding that,
09:29um, in order to, to drive and power the, the, the AI revolution that's coming, we need to have the,
09:34the electricity, um, and the data center, uh, uh, compute capacity, um, to, to do the training and the
09:41inference of, of all this AI. Um, you know, how, how do you, how do you think about this particular
09:45issue?
09:46Um, where, where are we on the, on the curve of, of kind of how much we built versus how
09:50much we need?
09:51And as government leaders here think about how to prepare their economies and, and build the right
09:56power and data infrastructure, how should they be thinking about where sort of compute and power
10:00needs are going to be in the, in the next few years?
10:04Well, there actually is a, quite a crisis of power. So the, this, this is, uh, in fact, this is
10:12something
10:13if you, if you, um, just, if you just sort of follow the AI topic on the X platform, um,
10:19which
10:19by the way is, is where almost all of the AI discourse takes place. Um, you, you, I think you
10:25get a very good sense for where things are headed. Um, so that, that's how, that's how I get my
10:31news.
10:31And it's, it's incredibly good. Everyone who's anyone in AI posts on X. Um, so, so, so that's why I'd
10:38recommend,
10:39like, just, just, just, just go on the AI topic on X and you will, you'll understand all these,
10:44these things and get a day, day by day account of things. The, the, uh, and, and, and what the
10:50consensus is at this point is that the, there will be a significant power shortfall, uh, uh, next year.
10:57So not like distant future, uh, there's expected to be, I believe the, the consensus estimate
11:03among analysts that, uh, follows the AI space very closely is that there will be at least a,
11:08a 15 gigawatt, uh, shortfall of power, uh, in 2027 for AI chips. So this is perhaps, um,
11:19an obvious, uh, thing that one would expect to occur because the rate at which AI chips is being
11:25produced is, is, uh, has been rising incredibly rapidly. They're sort of rising on the order of 40,
11:3050, 40 to 50% a year, but the, but the power available outside of China has been rising at
11:37like
11:3710 to 20% a year. So obviously, uh, the, the faster rising thing will, will eventually overwhelm the
11:44slower rising thing. And so, um, the, the, in fact, even I'd say at this point, there, there,
11:50there are challenges with power even before next year, which is why, uh, Google and Anthropic and
11:56many other companies are actually leasing compute from SpaceX, um, because we've been able to turn
12:01on, um, AI better than anyone else so far. But this is by, by constructing our own power plants
12:09is the only way we were able to do it. Um, so now, now China does have a tremendous amount
12:14of
12:14electricity, but, but, but, uh, due to GPU export bans, one cannot, uh, you know, establish
12:22data centers with the latest chips in China. So, so, uh, but, so really the consideration is what,
12:28what sort of electricity growth is there outside of China? Um, and that is, is currently a significant
12:34shortfall relative to AI chip production. So there is this, this creates an opportunity,
12:40I think, for countries around the world just to, to save, to, to sort of, if they're interested in
12:46AI data centers, um, to, to, to construct, uh, a lot of power, um, and, uh, and offer that to,
12:54uh,
12:55AI companies. Um, and in exchange, of course, these data centers would be, would be taxed and,
13:01and have to pay, you know, reasonable fees and stuff. Uh, but it does create an opportunity for,
13:07for a lot of countries. Absolutely. Well, thank you so much for your time. It meant a lot that you
13:11could join us here and, uh, really appreciate it. Thank you so much. All right. You're most welcome.