00:00I don't know that we need to necessarily change it, but I do think the big picture for the market
00:03right now is we went through this really robust earnings season, Tom. And now that it's all about
00:08macros, interest rates are front and center. So I think tomorrow's report obviously is really
00:13important. We've got a few more inflation reports before the next Fed meeting. But we still think
00:19the overall bull market is intact. I just think we're in a much choppier short-term period because
00:24the focus is all macro. And I'm wondering, Tom, if you're not wearing a bow tie as an indicator in
00:30itself. Exactly. Good point there. Looking for any indication you can. Hey, Keith, it's been about
00:36earnings here. And boy, the corporate America has really delivered with extraordinary earnings in
00:42the first half of 2026. How about the back half and into next year? How are you thinking about that?
00:48No. So we've been saying for some time, despite all these different headlines that we're dealing
00:53with, well, it's oil, inflation, tariffs, the north star of this bull market has been profits.
01:00And we all know that profits have been strong. What's interesting is now as we move further into
01:04the back half of this year, 2027 estimates really are coming into focus. And what we're seeing there
01:10so far is actually a pretty positive trend. In fact, 2027 estimates are being revised higher at
01:15one of the quickest paces we've seen historically. Normally at this time of year, analysts start cutting
01:20those estimates, but we're seeing the other way. So I think that's a positive. And also,
01:24if we look today, the S&P multiple is down to about 19. Not cheap, but a nice reset from
01:29where
01:29we were. One of the resets I saw here, Keith Lerner, was Michael Ferroli writing Friday for JP Morgan,
01:34and they took out their Q3 ending September 30, real GDP to 2.75%. Are you upping your real GDP
01:43call
01:43at present? At present, we are not. We're, you know, we're slightly above 2% for next year. And I
01:49think, you know, we have a resilient economy. We have a, maybe I would call it a two-speed economy,
01:54somewhat uneven. The tech spend as a percent of GDP related to AI is about 5%. That's higher than we
02:02saw during the internet period. So I think we do have some nice tailwinds. We're seeing, you know,
02:113%. We see closer to 2%. Keith Lerner with us at Truist. We continue here. Some great lineup on
02:16that question of GDP and the animal spirit of the nation. Michael Darda with us at the 8 o'clock
02:22hour. Paul Sweeney across America with Keith Lerner. Keith, just thinking back to last week,
02:27Tom was out in Jackson Hole with all the mucky mucks talking about global economics. We heard from
02:33our Fed chairman. He seems to remain hawkish here. What did you take away from Mr. Warsh last week,
02:39and how does that maybe impact your outlook? Yeah, I think the takeaway was this continued
02:44focus on inflation. And we're seeing that reflected in the Fed funds future. Now, after
02:51yesterday, we're seeing like the Fed funds future is now pressing at about a 60% chance of a rate.
02:56I think the question becomes, we keep talking about inflation. You know, if we don't act this time,
03:02is there going to be a credibility issue? I do think it's important going back to tomorrow's
03:06employment report. We did have a negative print last month. And historically, it would be very
03:13unusual to raise rates when you have a negative print within the, you know, within few months of
03:18that Fed meeting. So I think tomorrow's crucial. I think we actually have, like I said, we have
03:22inflation report later. But I think all in all, going back to your question, I think there's that
03:25continued focus on inflation over the employment side. I mean, Paul, I'm behind on this, but I just
03:30brought up ECO Go. Paul Sweeney taught me how to do this. And I'm looking at it, Paul, a negative
03:3523.
03:36You got to get a revision. The two month payroll revision was a negative 103. Yep. Right now I got
03:42a survey positive 55. Yeah. What if it comes in 60,000 under that, like two negative numbers back
03:49to back? Yeah, that's not what we'd be looking for. Why do we have people telling us it's a fully
03:53employed America? Well, we got a 4.1% unemployment rate. And that's kind of where people like me,
03:59I just, I stopped there. I say, okay, it's all good here. I don't peel the onion like a lot
04:03of
04:03economists do. Keith, how do you feel about just the AI story, which has been such a theme
04:10for this equity market for now three, going on four years here? How are you parsing the AI story
04:16these days? Yeah, well, the one thing I would say is that, you know, every bull market has a dominant
04:21theme. And to your point, this dominant theme is still AI and tech. We're still positive on the overall
04:26theme. We are seeing, you know, correlations or the tech sector and the broader market not
04:32no longer moving in lockstep. But I still think this trend is still positive. The good thing for
04:38technology as a whole is we've seen a reset in valuations. The tech sector was at a 31 multiple.
04:43Now it's at a 21 multiple. The premium to the overall market is the lowest we've seen or among the
04:48lowest
04:48we've seen the last decade. So I still think you want to stick with
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