00:00What is your assessment now of the hybrid threat in Russia, and is that heightening as we go forward in
00:04time?
00:05Well, I mean, obviously it's an area of major concern.
00:08It probably is the most significant strategic, I think, threat across the whole of Europe outside of Ukraine itself.
00:17You mentioned the word hybrid threat. I would suggest it's hybrid activity.
00:22We should be shifting towards a common language of hybrid activity,
00:26because even as Kayakalas herself said during the Foreign Affairs Council on Defence during the week,
00:31Russia has now increasingly provided kinetic attacks and waves of attacks across Europe.
00:38And we see that not only what happened in Leipzig, but we see it through the cyber domain.
00:41We see it through the energy domain. We see it through the climate and migration domain.
00:46So it is a simultaneous level of attacks right across Europe and their activities are ongoing.
00:53Leipzig is specifically, of course, I think Germany have shown great restraint.
00:58I think they have shown great leadership in terms of the attribution,
01:02because attribution is not something that can be done immediately.
01:05But language is something I'd like to let you took us there,
01:07because I think that a lot of the time with some of these sort of attacks and attempts,
01:10the response has been quite timid on the European side.
01:13Attribution has been arguably by some too slow.
01:16Do you think that there needs to be sort of clearer rhetoric and clearer red lines drawn in Europe?
01:19No, I think Europe is doing that. At the same time, you know, you have to be careful
01:23and make sure that it is commensurate, that it's proportionate and that it avoids escalation.
01:29But at the same time, you do not want to have allowed these activities and these attacks to be normalized.
01:35And there's a balance and a fine balance to do that.
01:38Germany has taken its time over a number of weeks to do a full analysis
01:42and with a high degree of confidence, then attribute blame to Russia.
01:48And what does that do? It builds confidence in the public.
01:51It builds trust and it builds confidence and strength within the partnerships.
01:55And I'd like to take us to the perspective of the war in Ukraine now,
01:59four and a half years into this battle against the Russians in Ukraine.
02:02You know, it feels there are a lot of things shifting.
02:04On the one hand, you see a lot of strain on the Russian economy.
02:06You see, obviously, a lot of difficulties in replacing the ranks by the Russian military.
02:11You see some commentary by the prime minister of India, for example, asking Putin to bring the war to a
02:15close.
02:16It feels like things are shifting in Ukraine, potentially not to a path to peace.
02:20But are the conditions there potentially for a reopening of diplomacy?
02:23How do you see this war progressing in the next six months?
02:26Firstly, the conditions have always been there for a path to peace.
02:28They have been provided for.
02:30There are a number of pillars that are outlined and what that would look like.
02:33However, we see no signs at this time of Russia going down that pathway.
02:39In fact, we see the opposite.
02:41They are more resilient and more determined in this revisionist Russian approach.
02:47And, of course, we have to be resolute in our support for Ukraine.
02:52And this is one of the key lines of effort of Europe as a whole, as EU.
02:56EU is the largest provider of support, both militarily, economically and in every other way to Ukraine.
03:02We have today 215 billion euros of support given to Ukraine.
03:07Of course, the challenge is to ensure we sustain that in the short, medium and longer term.
03:13And the leadership right across Europe and the EU has articulated this and the strength of it has not been
03:20weakened in any way.
03:21Has Europe been weakened by the fact that the United States is now wanting to withdraw its troop presence and
03:26reduce it over time?
03:27How do you assess the European vulnerability with the new Trump and Hexeth initiatives?
03:32We forget when we think about, when we look at those headlines, shall we say, we forget that Europe has
03:38resources.
03:39Europe has a lot of military.
03:42The allies are made up, as you know, of 32.
03:4523 of the European Union member states are also allies.
03:49The majority of membership in NATO is European.
03:53And what the US are asking is for Europe to step up and do more for its own security.
04:00This is not something new.
04:01This is something that's over a decade or more old.
04:03I mean, Obama was the first to do this.
04:05It has been very, it's much more overt now from this administration.
04:09As they coined it themselves, they want partners, not dependents.
04:13And Europe has stepped up.
04:14And the evidence is very clear, in particular over the last two years, in terms of investment, in terms of
04:20planning, in terms of support to Ukraine,
04:23where we have filled a void by almost 70% of the vacuum that was left when the United States
04:28withdrew its support for Ukraine financially.
04:30And Europe continues to do this.
04:31And I'd like to spend a little bit of time also drawing the sort of EU defence and NATO sort
04:36of distinction, right?
04:37Obviously, the main pillar of European defence in terms of active kinetic warfare potentially is the NATO side of it.
04:42You represent the EU sort of military arm of things.
04:45Can you draw that distinction for us and explain to us kind of the importance of the EU militarily, that
04:50side of the equation?
04:51Of course, it comes against some criticism that there might be some overlap and duplication there.
04:55Well, of course, this is the challenge to ensure that we are coordinated.
04:58There's efficiency of use and there is no duplication, unnecessary duplication, let me add.
05:05Let me be very clear as well on the principles here.
05:07NATO is the provider of the defence and deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic area, period.
05:11This does not change.
05:13Europe has its power and its strengths and projection in terms of the resources, in terms of finances, in terms
05:19of trade, in terms of legal instruments, military mobility, and so on and so forth.
05:25But there is only one set of forces, and how those are employed depends on the activation at any particular
05:32time.
05:33NATO activates when Article 5 is invoked.
05:36Europe, on the other hand, provides operations, missions, training for the defence and security, both internally and externally within Europe,
05:43and it endeavours to do that in concert with the planning that NATO undergoes.
05:48And in just the last 10 seconds that we have, we're entering budget season here in Europe.
05:51We have borrowing costs at a very elevated point, sort of since the financial crisis.
05:56We haven't seen there's going to be real questions about trade-offs that they need to make in government spending.
06:01Are we seeing any fatigue on European defence spending?
06:04Absolutely not.
06:05Year on year, 24 to 25, there was an over 20% increase in European defence spending.
06:10We project another 10 to 15% increase.
06:13We're now 2.2% on average of EU GDP, which is up by 0.4%, and that will increase
06:20to 2.4 in 26.
06:21We are down the road that Trump and his administrations want to see.
06:25So I think this argues very, very well for strengthening the transatlantic relations.
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