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00:08E' uno dei grandi esperti, uno dei grandi economisti che oggi ha guidato il dibattito
00:13al forum Ambrosetti di European House, Mohamed El-Arien. Mohamed El-Arien è il chief degli
00:18advisor del gruppo Allianz ed è anche il lettore del Queen's College a Oxford.
00:23Thanks for having friends for being here, Mohamed El-Arien.
00:26It's a great pleasure to be here, thanks for having me.
00:27Innanzitutto nella sua presentazione Mohamed El-Arien ha descritto la situazione dell'economia
00:32come quella di una transizione, di un equilibrio instabile la cui destinazione però è ancora
00:37sconosciuta. Per un investitore, un risparmiatore italiano che ci segue, che cosa significa questo?
00:43Will you describe the unstable equilibrium with an unknown destination of the transition we're in?
00:48For an Italian investor or savers, what does it mean?
00:51It means to understand that we are living in a world of volatility and we are living up
00:57a world of dispersion, where there's going to be a much bigger difference between winners and losers.
01:02The first thing you want to be able to navigate is volatility, and that requires resilience in your portfolio.
01:09So portfolios are built from bottom up, stressing balance sheet resilience, management resilience, human resilience.
01:17And the other thing you need is agility, to be able to take advantage of opportunities because the difference between
01:24winners and losers is going to be so large
01:26that it really does matter how you position. So is it really about security selection with a strong element of
01:32resilience?
01:33Uno degli elementi che colpisce di più è anche la fiducia che stanno esprimendo alcuni dei più grandi economisti e
01:39imprenditori qui sul ciclo
01:41dei mercati e dell'economia. Nonostante le crisi, nonostante gli shock che abbiamo vissuto, le borse continuano a salire
01:47e il boom dell'AI trascina tutto. Quanto ci si può fidare, quanta compiacenza c'è invece in questi mercati
01:53con il rischio di correzioni? Well, just one question, because there's a lot of complacency out there.
01:59There's a lot of positivity. And the resilience of the market was impressive.
02:03But how can we trust this to continue? How do you see this?
02:07So the resilience of both the economy and the markets have been really impressive.
02:14If I had sat here with you six years ago and you would have told me there will be five
02:20shocks
02:22hitting the economy in the next six years, a Covid shock, there will be two energy shocks,
02:30there will be a tariff shock, and in addition to all that, there will be an uncertainty shock
02:37coming from the US. And you would have asked me, how resilient will the economy prove?
02:42I will tell you that will be too much. It will overcome. But the truth is, this economy has,
02:47global economy has been resilient. Add to that the AI that has turbocharged earnings.
02:52And I think, like you said, investors have started to be complacent.
02:56They've started to realize that they've sort of gotten into this comfortable conditioning.
03:02And conditioning is very important in markets, that we can forget about everything
03:07because earnings will continue going up forever. I don't think that's the case.
03:10And that's why it's important to recognize that we're not in an equilibrium. We're in an unstable
03:17equilibrium that requires you to think in a very forward-looking way about all the changes
03:25that are happening to the global economy.
03:27E quindi i nostri telespettatori, chi ci segue, dove dovrebbero mettere i loro soldi in questa situazione?
03:33So, Mohamed El-Arian, where should our investors put their money at work in this kind of situation?
03:39So, the one thing you don't want to do is simply be hostage to indices.
03:47Because if you're going to have a big difference between winners and losers,
03:50you don't want to buy everything simply for buying it.
03:53I think you've got to develop a few themes that you think are important.
03:58We can talk about these themes, defense being one of them.
04:02I think what's happening in AI-related space and drug discovery and life sciences and robotics is another one.
04:11You've got to have a good amount of resilience so that you're not forced to do something silly when the
04:17volatility hits.
04:18Most mistakes are made at the height of the market and the bottom of the market.
04:23Because at that point, the behavioral elements take over and you either get too excited or too scared.
04:30And the last thing I'll keep on stressing is resilience.
04:33Make sure that wherever you invest has strong balance sheets.
04:38Well, you mentioned the innovation boom that according to Nuria Rubini this morning is a secular boom tied to innovation.
04:46But there's concern in the market around valuation of many hyperscalers, for example, or the satellites of the hyperscaler.
04:55Is there a risk? We are also in a bubble. We have to go through the bubble.
05:00Alcuni sono preoccupati delle valutazioni però dell'intelligenza artificiale che sta sostenendo questo boom
05:05che Rubini ritiene addirittura secolare legato all'innovazione nel suo complesso.
05:09So count me among those who are very positive on the economic effects of AI, the productivity potential.
05:17If we can manage the risks, the productivity potential is significant.
05:21But also count me among those who believe that we are in a rational bubble.
05:27So notice, a bubble means that quite a few people are going to lose money.
05:32But it's rational.
05:33And the way to understand it is that the payoff to the winners in AI are huge.
05:40But it's very difficult to identify who the winners are going to be.
05:44So investors are taking a venture capitalist approach.
05:47They are spreading their bets across virtually anything with an AI name on it.
05:53But not everything with an AI name will do well.
05:56This is a situation where a few names are going to do extremely well.
05:59So it is a bubble. It's rational in terms of what investors are doing.
06:04But you've got to be really careful because this is not a everybody wins situation.
06:33So there's a breaking news just a few minutes ago they're telling me
06:37that Trump is asking the Fed to slash interest rates.
06:42Otherwise, he's going to cut trade relations with countries that have a surplus towards the United States.
06:50What do you make of that?
06:51First reaction.
06:53First, let me tell you, the labor report was very strong.
06:58And the markets raised interest rates in reaction to that because they thought that increased the probability of an interest
07:06rate hike.
07:07So going into the labor report, the market was pricing a 50 percent hike in two weeks.
07:13Now it's hiking 66 percent.
07:16So the market is saying, if anything, the Fed, I don't think the Fed should hike, but they're saying the
07:21Fed should hike.
07:22On the other side, you have the president now, and you had the vice president yesterday,
07:27that want lower interest rates because of the housing market, because of mortgages.
07:33As you know, affordability is the number one political issues.
07:37We have elections coming up.
07:38The two most important things about affordability is inflation and housing.
07:43And a very important component of housing is the cost of mortgages to finance.
07:50So tremendous political pressure to lower the yields.
07:55I don't think it's going to impact the Fed, but it could impact the U.S. Treasury,
08:00because we've already seen the U.S. Treasury flirt with this notion of yield curve control,
08:05try to repress interest rates.
08:14So, do you see more financial repression in the future?
08:19So, as you say, the results were not positive.
08:22They were completely reversed by the market.
08:26I think he will be tempted to do more, but he will realize pretty quickly that this comes with a
08:36whole host of unintended consequences.
08:39It can weaken the dollar, it can cause, it can undermine the standing of the U.S. financial markets.
08:46So, will he try? Maybe.
08:49Will he succeed in a holistic sense? No.
08:54Kevin Walsh has been appointed by Trump with a clear mission.
09:06Will he be able to resist this level of pressure?
09:09You know, Kevin Walsh is one among 12 people who vote, right?
09:13So, he has to convince other people if, and I don't think, I know Kevin well, he will not be
09:21politically driven.
09:23He will be driven by the economics, and there's three things that matter to him, and he made it very
09:27clear.
09:28One is he believes in the inflation target.
09:32Two, he believes that interest rates are the main instrument to achieve that.
09:37But three, he also believes in the positive supply shock.
09:41So, he has to balance these things.
09:44I don't think politics will enter into the equation.
09:48E, infine, l'Italia. Come vede Mohamed El-Arian, il nostro paese, dal punto di vista anche degli investimenti e
09:54del futuro?
09:54So, lastly, what's your take on Italy, looking at the future?
09:57So, I tell you, there's nothing better than to come to Italy in the midst of a global interest rate
10:03scare
10:04and see Italian spreads inside better than France, only at 80 basis points.
10:11I remember it was 500, 600, 700.
10:13And it speaks to the enormous fiscal effort that has been made by Italy to generate a primary surplus.
10:21So, I think this is a very encouraged development.
10:24I think, like other countries in Europe, they need to be more focused on growth policy.
10:31Italy has incredible potential.
10:34You know, if I put the initial conditions of Italy in front of someone and say,
10:39what is the potential of that economy?
10:41It is incredible.
10:42You manufacture...
10:44I mean, you have so many attributes.
10:46So, I am very positive, but it will need continued political leadership to unleash this amazing potential.
10:55E quindi, la continuità della politica sarà decisiva.
10:58Grazie ancora, Mohamed El-Arian.
10:59Buon lavoro anche qui a Cernobbio, all'Ambrosetti di European House Forum.
11:03A presto.
11:03Thank you so much, Mohamed.
11:04Thank you.
11:05E grazie a voi, tra poco ancora con aggiornamenti analisi da Cernobbio.
11:10Grazie.
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