00:00The collapse of the Russian Federation is unlikely to repeat the relatively peaceful
00:03dissolution of the USSR in 1991, since the current subjects of the Russian Federation
00:08lack established institutions and legitimate regional elites.
00:12There is no single political nation in Russia. There is only a population governed by the state.
00:17If the center disappears, the process of fragmentation will be chaotic,
00:21unfolding in stages, and extremely violent. This may not lead to the emergence of democracy,
00:26but rather to the appearance of aggressive totalitarian micro-regimes and attempts by
00:31neighboring states to absorb defenseless post-Russian territories. Only certain strong,
00:36resource-rich regions could be economically independent. And that is exactly why the
00:41Kremlin is so terrified of any regional autonomy and keeps these territories on a short financial
00:47leash. A confederation could theoretically be a compromise, but it is more suitable as a
00:53transitional or contractual arrangement rather than a guaranteed stable final form.
