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00:00I would strongly encourage people not to believe what they read in the mainstream media
00:06about how well Ukraine is doing in this war and how poorly Russia is doing.
00:14The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path.
00:19And the Israelis are executing a genocide in Gaza.
00:23It's not China's fault that it wants to be powerful.
00:26So if you get into trouble and you dial 911, there's nobody at the other end.
00:33Hi, this is John Mearsheimer.
00:35And in today's episode, I'd like to talk about the situation in Ukraine,
00:42what's happening in the war between Russia on one side and Ukraine and the West on the other side.
00:50I think if you read the newspapers in the West every day and you listen to the mainstream media in
00:58the West,
00:59and this is certainly true in Ukraine as well, you get a picture that the Russians are in real trouble.
01:06They're struggling in this war.
01:08The future looks bleak for the Russians.
01:11And in contrast to the Russian situation, the Ukrainians are actually doing quite well,
01:17especially since they've adopted drones on the battlefield and they're waging this long-range drone campaign.
01:24And one has the sense that at least we have a stalemate here.
01:31And it may be the case that the Ukrainians are turning the tide.
01:35And when negotiations eventually start, the Ukrainians will be in a quite favorable position.
01:43And of course, we're not talking just about the Ukrainians.
01:46We're talking about the Ukrainians and the West because they are something of a tag team.
01:52I disagree almost completely with this view.
01:55I've long argued, as many viewers know, that the Russians would eventually win an ugly victory.
02:02And I think if you look at what's actually happening in the war, the Russians are winning the war
02:09and the Ukrainians are actually in terrible shape.
02:12Again, I don't think you get this picture from looking at what's in the mainstream media
02:19or listening to policymakers in the West speak, but I think they're wrong.
02:26I think there's a propaganda campaign at play here.
02:30And I want to tell you a story that is at odds with this propaganda campaign.
02:35I want to tell you how I think about the war.
02:38And I want to first focus on the battlefield, what's going on between both sides,
02:44the Ukrainians and the Russians, on the battlefield.
02:47Then I want to talk about the strategic bombing campaign or the air war that is being waged
02:55between the two sides.
02:58Then I want to talk about the state of outside support for Ukraine.
03:04And here we're talking basically about Western support for Ukraine,
03:08what it looks like today and where it might be headed.
03:11Then I want to talk a bit about politics or the political situation inside of Ukraine itself.
03:19And then I'll sum up by talking about where the war is today and where I think it's headed.
03:25So let me start by first talking about the battlefield.
03:29And the key to keep in mind here is that this is a war of attrition.
03:35I don't think this is news to anybody who's watching this video.
03:42But I do think you want to keep in mind that this war is a slugfest.
03:51This is a case of two armies standing toe-to-toe on the battlefield.
03:58And in a war of attrition, what really matters more than anything else
04:03is the balance of manpower or the balance of troops that each side has
04:11and the balance of weaponry.
04:14And in many ways, that can be reduced to the balance of firepower.
04:19So let me talk first about the balance of forces or the balance of troops up on the front lines.
04:28I think that the Russians at this point have a significant advantage,
04:33which is hardly surprising, because the population differences between the two sides is so great.
04:42And because the troops are drawn from the population, if one side has a much bigger population,
04:47you would expect that side to have more troops up on the front lines than the other side.
04:54And I would estimate that at this point, the Russians have a population advantage of roughly four and a half
05:03to one.
05:04It's probably close to five to one at this point in time.
05:08But that's really a massive advantage for the Russians.
05:12Just think about that.
05:13Even if it's just four to one, a four to one advantage in population size favoring the Russians
05:22tells you they're going to have a lot more troops up on the front line than the Ukrainians are.
05:28And of course, that is the case.
05:31We know that the Russians have somewhere on the order of a two to one to three to one advantage
05:38in front line troops.
05:41And this problem for the Ukrainians is exacerbated by the fact that they have a significant problem with draft dodging,
05:50and they have a significant problem with AWOLs.
05:55AWOLs are people who run away from the battlefield.
05:58They're soldiers who were sent up to the battlefield to fight, but at some point they flee the battlefield.
06:04And we know from listening to the former Minister of Defense in Ukraine speak that Ukraine has a huge problem
06:18with both AWOLs and draft dodging.
06:21So here you have an army that's probably outnumbered, probably close to three to one in terms of number of
06:30troops,
06:30that has inside it a significant AWOL and draft dodging problem.
06:35So the balance of forces favors the Russians over the Ukrainians.
06:41Moreover, when you talk about the balance of forces up on the front lines,
06:46you have to take into account the force to space ratio.
06:49In other words, do the Ukrainians have enough troops up on the front lines to thickly populate the forward edge
06:59of the battle area?
07:01Or do they have a lack of troops, which produces a situation where there are gaps in the front line?
07:09Remember, there's a 1,200 kilometer front line that has to be covered.
07:13And there is an abundance of evidence coming from Ukrainian sources that the Ukrainians do not have enough troops to
07:22thickly populate the front lines.
07:25And what's really saved them in this situation has been drones.
07:31Drones have been something of a stopgap.
07:33In other words, the Ukrainians can leave holes in the front line and then fill those lines with drones.
07:43And then if the Russians do push through a particular gap, they can move reserve troops to close the gap.
07:51But this is a significant problem for the Russians.
07:55So you see, when you look at the number of troops up on the front line,
08:01the Russians significantly outnumber the Ukrainians.
08:06And number two, the Ukrainians do not have enough troops to thickly populate the front lines.
08:13Then we go to the matter of weaponry.
08:16And here we're talking about firepower.
08:18There's no question that throughout the entire war,
08:23the Russians have had a significant advantage in artillery.
08:27And nothing has changed in that regard.
08:30And if anything, the Ukrainians are having more difficulty than ever getting artillery from the West.
08:37And that includes the United States.
08:40And one thing you want to remember about Russia is that it has a very formidable industrial base
08:47that can produce huge numbers of weapons on a monthly basis.
08:53So there's no shortage of artillery on the Russian side, whereas there is a shortage of artillery on the Ukrainian
09:02side.
09:03And as I'm sure most of the viewers know, throughout the course of this war,
09:07there's been talk about the Ukrainians being outnumbered in terms of artillery,
09:13sometimes 5 to 1, sometimes 7 to 1, and even sometimes 10 to 1.
09:18Furthermore, and this cannot be underestimated, the Russians have a huge inventory of glide bombs
09:27that they have been launching at the Ukrainian forces on the ground pretty much since the start of the war.
09:37These glide bombs are basically smart bombs.
09:40They're old-fashioned iron bombs that have a special kit put on them that allows those bombs to land with
09:50precision on the chosen target.
09:54And estimates are that the Russians have launched about 100,000 glide bombs against Ukrainian forces since the war started.
10:05And they're now averaging somewhere in the range of 200 glide bombs per day against Ukrainian forces.
10:14So when you think about the balance of firepower here, you have to take into account artillery,
10:20and you have to take into account these glide bombs.
10:23And the Russians, as I said, have a significant advantage in terms of artillery.
10:28And in terms of glide bombs, I just pointed out what an impressive arsenal of glide bombs the Russians have.
10:37At the same time, the Ukrainians have hardly any glide bombs at all.
10:42So the Russians have an overwhelming advantage in terms of glide bombs,
10:47a significant advantage in terms of artillery.
10:51The only way, the only place where you have something of a balance in terms of firepower up on the
10:59front lines has to do with drones.
11:01And there's no question that both the Russians and the Ukrainians have a formidable force of drones up on the
11:09front line.
11:09And as I said before, these drones have played a key role in allowing the Ukrainians to compensate for the
11:18fact that they don't have enough troops to cover the front line.
11:24So drones have been a savior in a very important way for the Ukrainians.
11:30And I would argue that in the absence of drones, this war would have been over a long time ago.
11:36Because without drones, both the balance of firepower and the balance of manpower is so lopsided in Russia's favor, of
11:45course,
11:45that I think the Russians would have rolled up the Ukrainians a year or two ago.
11:52But the fact is that drones are ever-present on the front lines.
11:56And there you have a rough balance of power.
11:59Now, what about Russian casualties?
12:02You hear all these stories in the news about the astronomical Russian casualty levels on the front lines.
12:13And there are these stories that have appeared that say that your average Russian conscript will only live 20 to
12:2630 hours
12:27when he is sent to the front lines.
12:30Just think about it.
12:31The argument is that you take a Russian conscript, you send him to the front lines,
12:35and he'll be dead somewhere between 20 and 30 hours after arriving at the front lines.
12:41John Ratcliffe, who is the head of the CIA, has actually repeated this argument.
12:50And this argument, of course, fuels the claim that the Russians are suffering massive casualties on a daily basis,
12:59and well over 100,000 Russians have died or been severely wounded.
13:08These numbers are ridiculous.
13:11There's no question that the Russians have suffered a few hundred thousand deaths.
13:16I don't deny that for one second.
13:17This is deadly combat for sure.
13:20But the idea that your average Russian recruit only lasts somewhere between 20 to 30 hours is, I think, it's
13:31fair to say ludicrous.
13:33And in fact, if you look carefully at how the Russians are waging the war,
13:40they are waging it in a way that is designed to minimize the number of casualties.
13:47This cannot be emphasized enough.
13:50The Russians are moving very slowly and very carefully,
13:54and they are privileging firepower over manpower in their assaults.
14:00They want to do everything they can to use firepower to eliminate the Ukrainian forces
14:06before they bring soldiers to bear in the fight.
14:12And the reason here is that the Russians are deeply interested in not seeing their fighting forces die in large
14:23numbers.
14:24I mean, you occasionally see reference to the fact that Russian commanders forced their troops to engage in frontal attacks
14:33where they get mowed down by Ukrainian firepower.
14:39There's no evidence that this is happening.
14:42The Russians are not engaging in frontal attacks.
14:45They're moving forward in a very methodical way, depending very heavily on firepower, as I said before,
14:51to clear the way for the attacking forces and doing everything they can to keep the number of casualties down.
15:01On the other hand, it's quite clear that the Ukrainians are suffering significant casualties.
15:09Budanov, who was formerly the head of Ukrainian intelligence, has recently said that the Ukrainians need 30,000 new troops
15:23every month.
15:25If the Ukrainians need 30,000 new troops every month, this implies that they're losing 30,000 troops every month.
15:35Now, some of those troops may have been lost by desertion, by the troops going AWOL.
15:44That's a serious possibility.
15:46So let's say they're not losing 30,000 troops in terms of casualties every month.
15:53And when we talk about casualties here, we're not talking about people who are lightly wounded.
15:59We're talking about people who are killed or severely wounded and cannot come back into the fight.
16:03So let's assume that the Ukrainians are losing 25,000.
16:07So we're modifying Budanov's number of 30,000.
16:12And if they're losing 25,000 troops a month, they have to replace those 25,000.
16:2025,000 over 12 months is 300,000 troops.
16:25That would mean that Ukraine, according to its own numbers, is losing 300,000 troops a year.
16:34That is a huge number for an army that is outnumbered to begin with.
16:40So the point that I'm making to you here with regard to Russian casualties and Ukrainian casualties is that these
16:49claims about the numbers that the Russians are losing are wildly inflated.
16:56And at the same time, you do not want to lose sight of the number of casualties that the Ukrainians
17:04are suffering.
17:04And of course, this is hardly surprising when you take into account that the balance of firepower, when you look
17:11at things like artillery and glide bombs, greatly favors the Russians over the Ukrainians.
17:18Now, one other issue we want to talk about regarding what's happening on the battlefield is the fact that the
17:26Russians are taking territory very slowly.
17:30Many people look at the slow pace at which the Russians are capturing territory, and they conclude that this is
17:39evidence that the Russians are failing to execute this war in what one might call a satisfactory way.
17:48I have a couple points to make here.
17:51First of all, one of the reasons that the Russians are taking territory very slowly is because they're moving very
17:58cautiously,
17:58and they're moving very cautiously and very deliberately because they want to minimize casualties.
18:04My point, my previous point about minimizing casualties is linked to this point about the speed at which the Russians
18:13are taking territory.
18:14There's no question they're taking territory very slowly, and they're doing that, again, because they want to minimize casualties.
18:22Furthermore, the Russians are fighting on terrain where they have to go into large towns and cities and capture those
18:33cities.
18:34And to defeat the Ukrainians in those large towns and in those cities is a difficult task, and it's a
18:41time-consuming task.
18:43And there's no way, as the Russians move from east to west in areas like the Donbass, that they can
18:51take towns and cities quickly.
18:53It's just not in the cards.
18:55The Ukrainians are clearly fighting fiercely in those cities, and it takes time for the Russians to capture territory.
19:03But the point we want to keep in mind here is that the Russians are slowly but steadily capturing Ukrainian
19:10territory, more and more Ukrainian territory.
19:14And at the same time, and this is very important in a war of attrition, the Russians are killing or
19:23badly wounding large numbers of Ukrainians
19:26and making it very difficult for the Ukrainians to stay in the fight.
19:32So I think when you put all these factors together and you look at what's happening up on the front
19:38lines, there's no question in my mind that the Russians are winning on the battlefield, that the Ukrainians are losing.
19:47And given drones, it has been difficult for the Russians to knock out the Ukrainians.
19:52There's no question about that.
19:54But at the same time, there's no question that the Ukrainians, given the fact that they're outnumbered in terms of
20:01troops and that they're outnumbered in terms of firepower, that they are destined to lose on the battlefield.
20:11Now, let me switch gears and talk about the air campaign.
20:16And let me first just talk about the inventory of weaponry on both sides and then talk about the strategies
20:25that both sides are employing and how those strategies are likely to affect the outcome of the war.
20:34First of all, let me talk about the Russian inventory.
20:37The Russians have a huge inventory of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles that they have been using against the Ukrainians.
20:48Most estimates are that the Russians have launched about 6,000 ballistic missile and cruise missile attacks against Ukraine.
20:59In addition to the ballistic missiles and the cruise missiles, the Russians have, as I said before, these glide bombs,
21:08these smart bombs that they can launch from the air and with pinpoint accuracy hit targets on the ground.
21:16And as I said before, they've launched 100,000 glide bombs.
21:20In addition, the Russians are now getting assistance from North Korean short-range ballistic missiles because the North Koreans are
21:30fighting side-by-side with the Russians and they are bringing ballistic missiles with them.
21:37And very importantly, the Russians have a sophisticated inventory of drones, jet-powered drones.
21:48The Jiran-4 and the Jiran-5 are jet-powered drones that are giving the Ukrainians fits.
21:57If you look at the Ukrainian media, if you look at the Kiev Independent, for example, it's quite clear that
22:04the Russians are having a powerful effect in terms of waging the air war against Ukraine with all of these
22:15new jet-powered drones.
22:18The Jiran-5 is that the Ukrainians are having a very difficult time shooting down, and these drones are not
22:26only difficult to shoot down, but they are also very accurate because they are steered to the target by ground
22:34operators, by Russian ground operators.
22:36They're not just simply pre-programmed to go after a particular target and then sent on their way.
22:43On the contrary, they're basically maneuvered to their target by ground-based operators, and they fly at reasonably high altitudes.
22:52They have the ability to maneuver.
22:54And the Ukrainians are having a devil of a time dealing with this massive inventory of jet-powered drones that
23:02the Russians have.
23:03So when you look at what the Russians have, you see, again, a huge inventory of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles,
23:11glide bombs, and jet-powered drones.
23:14And now they have North Korean ballistic missiles at their disposal as well.
23:20If you look at what the Ukrainians have, as I said before, they have virtually no glide bombs.
23:28They have virtually no ballistic missiles of any consequence.
23:34They do have some cruise missiles, mainly cruise missiles that they've gotten from the West.
23:39These are the storm shadows that they've gotten from the British.
23:48But they have not gotten large numbers of cruise missiles.
23:52The number of cruise missiles that the Ukrainians are firing at the Russians pales in comparison to the number of
24:01cruise missiles
24:02that the Russians are firing at the Ukrainians.
24:07And there's no reason to think that's going to change any time soon.
24:14And in terms of drones, there's no question that the Ukrainians have a significant drone force.
24:22This is a situation that's analogous to the battlefield.
24:25To go back to the battlefield, remember what I said.
24:28I thought that drones had been Ukraine's savior on the battlefield.
24:33My argument was that without drones, Ukraine would have lost on the battlefield, in my opinion, at least a year
24:41ago, maybe two years ago.
24:42Drones have kept them in the fight.
24:45And in terms of this inventory of strategic air assets, I think drones are where the Ukrainians have been, by
25:00and large, able to match the Russians.
25:03They don't have a sophisticated force of jet-powered drones that's the equivalent of what the Russians have.
25:10But nevertheless, there's no question that the Ukrainians have a powerful force of drones that they have been using.
25:20But otherwise, if you move away from drones, you look at all these other weapons, the Russians have a decisive
25:27advantage in the number of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, glide bombs, and so forth and so on.
25:35So that's the basic inventory.
25:37But what's more important than the inventory, or at least as important than the inventory, is the question of how
25:45you employ those air assets to affect the outcome of the war.
25:52And I think you can talk about an air campaign in two different ways.
25:58First, you can envision an air campaign as a punishment campaign.
26:06And with a punishment campaign, you end up killing lots of people or wrecking the other side's economy or damaging
26:17the other side's economy in ways that cause great pain for the population.
26:24And you force the population to put pressure on the government to end the war.
26:31So the idea is that if you hit a city and you take out the energy network in that city
26:43and people don't have water or they don't have heating, people will rise up and put pressure on the government
26:51to end the war.
26:52Or the government itself will say enough is enough, so much pain is being inflicted on our population, so much
26:59punishment is being inflicted on our population, that this war has to be ended.
27:04That's one way you can think about employing air power.
27:08Second way you can think about employing air power is you tear apart military infrastructure in the rear areas of
27:20your adversary, and you wreck the other side's economy in ways that affect its ability to wage war up on
27:32the front lines.
27:34So with this second strategy, you're not punishing the civilian population, you're not causing the civilian population to rise up
27:44against the government or causing the government to say enough is enough because the civilian population is being so badly
27:51hurt.
27:52No, the second strategy calls for doing great damage to the economy and to military infrastructure in ways that influences
28:04the fighting between the two sides.
28:08Now, I think up until recently, the Russian campaign really focused on the first strategy.
28:15It was really, by and large, a punishment campaign.
28:21And I think if you look at what Ukraine is doing, Ukraine's strategy has been and still is a punishment
28:30campaign.
28:31And when we talk about Ukraine's air campaign here, we're talking about its drone campaign, right?
28:37Basically a punishment strategy.
28:39And as I say, I think the Russians have been waging a punishment strategy up until recently as well.
28:45Punishment strategies just don't work.
28:48Just look at the damage that Russia has done with its air war against Ukraine over the past few years.
28:57And there is zero evidence that it has caused Ukraine to think about quitting the war.
29:04And the same thing is true when you look at Ukraine's drone campaign.
29:09This is its long-range drone campaign against the Russian heartland.
29:14There's no way that's going to cause Russia to quit the war.
29:18Punishment campaigns don't work.
29:20And the Ukrainian punishment campaign against Russia is a much less potent punishment campaign than the Russian campaign against Ukraine.
29:30And again, the Russian punishment campaign did not get Ukraine to quit.
29:35But what's happened here, what's changed in the Russian campaign, the Russian strategic bombing campaign,
29:43is that it has gone from a punishment campaign to a campaign that's designed to wreck the Ukrainian economy
29:53in ways that will significantly influence events on the battlefield.
30:00And that bombing campaign is also now directed at influencing actual military events
30:11by going after targets in the rear areas of Ukraine that contain military infrastructure.
30:21Now, what exactly am I talking about here?
30:24In recent months, what Russia has done is that it has turned Ukraine into a landlocked country.
30:36The importance of this cannot be underestimated because Ukraine depends heavily on its Black Sea ports
30:47to export and import agricultural goods, industrial goods, and military wherewithal.
30:59Military wherewithal.
31:01You want to think about that.
31:03So what's happened here is that Russia has concentrated on shutting down ports like Odessa
31:10and other ports along the Black Sea.
31:13These are Ukrainian ports, which has made it virtually impossible for Ukraine to import and export goods,
31:24be they military or economic, out of those ports.
31:28And this is why I said that what's happened here is Russia has turned Ukraine into a landlocked country.
31:36This is having devastating effects on the Ukrainian economy.
31:41There's no way that that could not be the case.
31:44And we know from back in 2022, when those ports were shut down for a number of months,
31:52that it had then, it then had devastating effects on the Ukrainian economy.
31:57So there's no question that given that the Russians have shut down those Black Sea ports,
32:03turned Ukraine into a landlocked country, that this is going to go to great lengths,
32:09this will go to great lengths to damage severely the Ukrainian economy.
32:15And this matters because the Ukrainian economy, a healthy or reasonably healthy Ukrainian economy,
32:22or a functioning Ukrainian economy, is essential for supporting the troops on the front line.
32:29On top of the damage that's being done to the Ukrainian economy,
32:35the fact is that lots of Russian, lots of, excuse me,
32:41lots of Ukrainian military material came in through the Black Sea ports.
32:47And that is no longer the case.
32:49So weaponry, precious weaponry that was coming in through those Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea
32:55are no longer coming in.
32:57And this too is having an effect on the battlefield.
33:03Furthermore, if you look at what the Russians are doing to the transportation network inside of Russia,
33:13they are wrecking railroad lines, they are attacking locomotives,
33:19they are destroying gas stations in droves in eastern Ukraine,
33:24they are tearing apart road networks and rail lines as well.
33:29And the end result of this is the transportation network inside of Ukraine is being badly damaged,
33:37which not only hurts the economy, but makes it very difficult to move material from the rear areas to the
33:46front line forces.
33:48It's quite clear that if you look at retail warehouse storage,
33:55retail warehouse storage inside of Ukraine,
34:00that estimates from high-level government officials are that the Russians have destroyed 90% of retail warehouse storage,
34:10which has a significant effect on the Russian economy.
34:16And the Russians, up to now, have either damaged or destroyed about 80% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
34:30Just think about it.
34:31The Russians, up to now, have destroyed or damaged about 80% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
34:40A lot of that has been repaired.
34:43I want to be clear.
34:44But what the Russians are now saying that they're going to do
34:48is they're going to destroy that energy infrastructure almost completely.
34:54They're going to purposely target that infrastructure, that energy infrastructure,
34:59for the purpose of, with the goal in mind of destroying it.
35:04So you can see what's happening here,
35:06and that is that the Russians are no longer engaged in a punishment campaign.
35:11They're interested in wrecking the Ukrainian economy to the point where it will greatly hinder Ukraine's ability
35:22to support the front line forces.
35:24And in addition, they're going after military infrastructure.
35:29They're going after military targets in Ukraine's rear,
35:33which, of course, will eventually weaken Ukraine's efforts on the front lines.
35:39So what I am saying here is that when you look at what Russia is doing up on the front
35:47lines,
35:48the successes that it's having up on the battlefield,
35:53and you couple that with the change that has recently taken place,
35:57and the strategy it is employing in the air war,
36:01it's quite clear that the Russians are at a significant advantage
36:08or have a significant advantage over the Ukrainians.
36:11Now, just one final point on this,
36:14and that is that if you look at the Ukrainian air campaign against Russia,
36:20which is being waged with drones,
36:23there's no question that that is inflicting punishment on Russia.
36:29We want to be very clear on that point.
36:32The Ukrainian drone campaign is inflicting punishment on Russia,
36:37but that punishment campaign is not going to cause Russia to surrender
36:46or to reduce its goals in this war.
36:52If anything, it's going to incentivize the Russians to take more territory
36:58and to ramp up its own air campaign against Ukraine to the highest possible level.
37:08So the Ukrainians have no war-winning strategy when it comes to the air war.
37:15And when you read all these stories about how successful this drone attack
37:20or that drone attack by Ukraine against Russia is,
37:24you should understand it's not going to influence the outcome of this war in any meaningful way.
37:32So that concludes my discussion of the military side of the war.
37:39I want to talk now about outside support for Ukraine.
37:45As I think everybody understands,
37:48Ukraine could have never stayed in this war without support from the West,
37:52especially from the United States.
37:58And if you think about where we are today and where we're headed,
38:02it's quite clear that U.S. support for Ukraine has been reduced significantly
38:08since the war started in February 2022.
38:12The United States, under President Trump,
38:15has made it clear that what the White House wants to do
38:22is reduce the American burden of supporting Ukraine
38:28and shift that burden onto the shoulders of the Europeans.
38:35So the United States is interested in reducing its commitment to Ukraine.
38:42To take this further,
38:45remember that the United States,
38:48because of what's happened in the Gulf War,
38:52has a significant shortage of precious munitions.
38:55For example, it has a significant shortage of Patriot missiles.
39:01The Ukrainians are desperate to get American Patriot missiles.
39:05They need Patriot missiles to help defend against the ballistic missiles
39:10and cruise missiles that the Russians are now firing at Ukraine in huge numbers.
39:16But the United States has no Patriot missiles that it can give to the Ukrainians.
39:24The Ukrainians, therefore, have virtually no defense
39:27against the incoming ballistic and cruise missiles from Russia.
39:31And that situation is not going to change anytime soon.
39:35The United States is not in a position where it can give lots of weaponry to Ukraine.
39:43And furthermore, the United States, as I said,
39:45is interested in shifting the burden of supporting Ukraine
39:49from its shoulders to the European shoulders.
39:54On top of all that,
39:55the United States has just initiated the study
39:58to assess what sort of troop levels
40:02the United States should maintain in Europe moving forward.
40:08And given the imperative of pivoting to Asia
40:12and given what's going on in the Middle East,
40:15it's almost certain that the United States
40:17is going to reduce its troop levels
40:19in Europe in the not-too-distant future.
40:23And this is just going to be another sign
40:26of America's reduced commitment to Ukraine.
40:30So you see, you have a situation here
40:32where the American commitment to Europe,
40:35I don't want to say it's been withering away.
40:38That's too strong.
40:39But it has been greatly reduced over time.
40:42It hasn't been reduced to zero.
40:44But the United States is no longer
40:47the loyal supporter of Ukraine that it once was.
40:50And if you look at the European countries,
40:53relations between Poland and Ukraine have badly deteriorated.
40:57The Poles have made it clear
40:59they will not fight in Ukraine
41:01under almost any circumstances.
41:03There's a lot of bad blood these days
41:07between Poland and Ukraine
41:09because Ukraine has been supporting
41:12or has been celebrating
41:14its history in World War II
41:18in which Ukrainian forces massacred Poles,
41:23which has enraged Poles.
41:25And therefore, Polish-Ukrainian relations
41:28are terrible today.
41:29And if you look at what's happening
41:32inside in France and Germany,
41:34it is possible that the right will win
41:37in both France and Germany
41:40in a future election.
41:41And if the right wins
41:44in one of those elections,
41:45it's likely that France or Germany
41:49will abandon its strong support for Ukraine
41:53because the right in Germany
41:55and the right in France
41:56have made it clear
41:57that they have no love lost for NATO,
42:00number one.
42:01And number two,
42:02they think it's time to end
42:05this formidable,
42:09be it German or be it French,
42:11commitment to Ukraine.
42:13So when you look at the future
42:17and you think about Ukraine's
42:20heavy dependence on support
42:22from the United States
42:24and from the Europeans,
42:26you don't see a pretty picture at all.
42:29And then I want to talk about
42:31what's going on inside of Ukraine.
42:34First of all,
42:35there's a lot of war weariness.
42:37Recent polls show that 66% of Ukrainians
42:41think it's time to negotiate
42:43an end to the war.
42:46Only 24%,
42:48this is roughly one out of every four Ukrainians,
42:51wants to continue this war.
42:54Furthermore,
42:55if you look at Zelensky's standing
42:58inside of Ukraine,
43:00there's no question that he still
43:03garners significant political support.
43:07It's not like the body populace
43:09wants to throw him out of office.
43:11But it's quite clear
43:13that if you were to have an election today,
43:14it is likely that two or three
43:18other Ukrainians would defeat him
43:22because he is not the most popular leader
43:25anymore in Ukraine.
43:28There are others like Budanov,
43:31who I was talking about before,
43:33his former defense minister,
43:36Fedorov,
43:37and his former commanding general,
43:41General Zeluzhny,
43:42all of whom are more popular
43:44than Zelensky.
43:46So Zelensky has some political problems
43:49on the home front.
43:51And then the final point I'd make
43:53about what's going on
43:54regarding Ukraine's home front
43:56is that Zelensky was recently
43:58forced into a position
44:00where he had to fire
44:01both the minister of defense,
44:04this is Fedorov,
44:06who is now interested
44:09in having an election
44:10because he thinks he could beat
44:11Zelensky in an election.
44:13But he was not only forced
44:15to fire Fedorov,
44:16he was forced to fire
44:17General Siersky as well.
44:19And I believe that General Siersky
44:21was a quite successful
44:23battlefield commander.
44:24I think one of the reasons,
44:26not the only reason by any means,
44:28but one of the reasons
44:29that the Ukrainians
44:30have been able to hold out
44:31against the Russians
44:33over time
44:34was because of General Siersky,
44:36who was, I think,
44:37a quite competent
44:39military commander.
44:40But anyway,
44:43Zelensky has been forced
44:45to fire Siersky.
44:46He was forced to fire Fedorov.
44:48And when you're in the middle
44:49of a tough war
44:50and you have to simultaneously
44:51fire your minister of defense
44:53and the commanding general
44:56of your armed forces,
44:57that tells you
44:59that you are in serious trouble.
45:01So the point that I'm making here
45:03is that if you look inside Kyiv,
45:05there's all sorts
45:06of trouble brewing.
45:08And if you look at
45:09the outside support for Kyiv,
45:13there's all sorts
45:14of trouble brewing there.
45:16And then when you marry that
45:17to what's happening
45:18on the battlefield
45:19and what's happening
45:20in the strategic bombing campaigns,
45:24this is a very bleak picture.
45:27Now, where exactly
45:31is the war today?
45:34The Russians have annexed
45:38four oblasts plus Crimea.
45:41They've annexed somewhere
45:43on the order of 20 plus percent
45:45of Ukrainian territory.
45:48Of course, they don't control
45:50all of that territory.
45:53But I would estimate
45:55they control slightly more
45:57than 80 percent
45:58of those four oblasts.
46:01They control all of Crimea
46:02and about 80 percent
46:04of the four oblasts
46:07that they annexed.
46:08And they're, of course,
46:09in the process
46:09of conquering all
46:11of the territory
46:13in those four oblasts.
46:16So if the war ended today,
46:19Ukraine would have lost
46:23about 20 percent
46:24of its territory.
46:26Not only has Ukraine
46:28lost all this territory,
46:30but there's virtually no chance
46:32it's going to become
46:33a member of NATO.
46:35First of all,
46:36NATO is a badly damaged institution
46:40as a result of this war.
46:42Serious damage has been done
46:44to NATO because of the Ukraine war.
46:47And you see this very clearly
46:49in America's interest
46:51in reducing its presence
46:53in Europe,
46:55reducing its influence
46:57in NATO,
46:57and basically letting the Europeans
47:00play a much larger role
47:02in terms of running the alliance.
47:04So I think the alliance
47:06is in trouble.
47:07But furthermore,
47:09there's no way
47:10you're going to get
47:11a European consensus
47:12to bring Ukraine into NATO.
47:15And furthermore,
47:16given the state of Ukraine,
47:18given the damage
47:19that's been done to Ukraine,
47:21Ukraine will be
47:22in no position
47:23to enter NATO
47:25or the EU for that matter.
47:27So again,
47:29you end the war today.
47:30Russia controls
47:31a huge slice
47:32of Ukrainian territory
47:34in the east.
47:35And furthermore,
47:36it has succeeded
47:37in preventing Ukraine
47:40from joining NATO.
47:42So finally,
47:44huge destruction
47:45has been done
47:46to Ukraine.
47:48Estimates are
47:49that it'll take
47:50$600 billion.
47:52Just think about that.
47:54$600 billion
47:55to repair
47:57all the damage
47:58that has been done
47:59to Ukraine.
48:01And this doesn't take out,
48:03take into account
48:04the demographic consequences,
48:05all the people
48:06who have fled Ukraine
48:08and will never come back,
48:09all the Ukrainians
48:11who have died.
48:12Before this war started,
48:13it was commonplace
48:14for people
48:15to talk about Ukraine
48:16being in a demographic
48:17death spiral.
48:19If anything,
48:20that situation
48:20has only been exacerbated.
48:23So in terms of
48:25where we are today
48:26in the war,
48:28were that war
48:29to end today,
48:31I think it's quite clear
48:33that Ukraine
48:34is in a disastrous situation.
48:37And I think
48:39there is no chance
48:41that Ukraine
48:42can reverse
48:43this situation.
48:44Anybody who believes
48:46that Ukraine
48:49can recapture
48:51territory
48:51that it lost,
48:53that it can wage
48:54a strategic bombing campaign
48:56that can bring
48:57the Russians
48:57to their knees
48:58and get them
48:59to negotiate
49:00an agreement,
49:01get the Russians
49:02to negotiate
49:03an agreement
49:04that is favorable
49:06to Ukraine
49:07and reverses
49:08much of the damage
49:09that has been done
49:11is living
49:12in a dream world.
49:13This is just
49:14not going to happen.
49:15The best
49:16that the Ukrainians
49:17can hope for
49:18at this point in time
49:19is freezing
49:20the status quo.
49:22And as I say,
49:23if you freeze
49:23the status quo,
49:25this is a disastrous
49:27outcome
49:28for Ukraine.
49:29It's a dysfunctional
49:30rump state.
49:30It's lost
49:31at least 20%
49:32of its territory.
49:34It's suffered
49:35enormous
49:36physical destruction.
49:38Large numbers
49:39of people
49:39have left the country.
49:41Huge numbers
49:42of people
49:42have died.
49:43This is a disaster.
49:45But the real problem
49:47is that this war
49:48is not over with,
49:49that the Russians
49:50are on the march.
49:52I do not deny
49:53for one second
49:54that the Russians
49:54are moving slowly.
49:56But when you look
49:57at the strategic
49:58bombing campaign
49:59and the damage
50:00that's being done
50:01to Ukraine
50:02and you take
50:03into account
50:03the fact
50:04that Russia
50:04is capturing territory
50:06on the front lines
50:07and it is killing
50:09more and more Ukrainians,
50:11again, you want
50:11to remember
50:11that General Budanov
50:14says that Ukraine
50:16needs 30,000 new men
50:19each month.
50:21You understand
50:22that as bleak
50:23as the situation
50:24is now,
50:26it only gets worse
50:27with the passage
50:28of time.
50:29So, when all is said
50:31and done,
50:32I would strongly
50:33encourage people
50:34not to believe
50:35what they read
50:37in the mainstream media
50:38about how well
50:40Ukraine is doing
50:42in this war
50:43and how poorly
50:45Russia is doing.
50:46Because I think,
50:47if anything,
50:49exactly the opposite
50:50is happening.
50:51Thank you very much
50:53for listening
50:53to this video
50:57and I look forward
51:00to our next episode
51:02together.