00:00man dave this is a spot this georgia spot that you know very very well you can give the people
00:08the numbers they're laying 46 and a half 47 and a half depending on where you're looking right now
00:13against tennessee state give people some insight in this matchup here specifically
00:21it's real simple i'm gonna keep it simple i'm not gonna break down tennessee state i'm not gonna
00:25tell you i know anything about them what i'm gonna tell you is i've been on this trend for
00:29about three years now i caught it i now it's no in the in the mainstream i've heard it on
00:33every
00:33single channel in america kirby smart it's simple 0 15 and 1 that's a 0 in the front there 0
00:4015 and 1
00:41nada zippo first the spread when it's 38 or more points he just simply doesn't run up the score
00:48against these fcs or non-power 5 teams he just doesn't do it and here's the picture kevin
00:56last year week 13 or week 12 late in the year when the sec gets that extra cupcake at the
01:01end of
01:02the year before their big matches at the end georgia is facing charlotte and i'm sweating out a charlotte
01:10plus 42 and a half while i'm sitting on my lawnmower on a saturday afternoon because i'm on this trend
01:16that kirby was 0 14 and 1 it's 38 to 3 going into the fourth quarter and you know you're
01:22holding on for
01:23dear life georgia didn't score in the fourth quarter they just don't i don't know what the
01:28message is i don't know if his fourth stringers don't try as hard they just don't put the foot
01:33on the gas like a usc or oklahoma did last night 51 nothing over utep kirby smart has never covered
01:42a game of more than 38 and a half points now i know the market knows this so the 46
01:46and a half probably
01:47should be closer to 100 here but it's 46 and a half and i'm going to be sweating out
01:54tennessee state plus 46 and a half whether i'm on my lawnmower or watching another avengers movie
02:00i'll be paying attention to this georgia game it's so incredible and what i what i absolutely love
02:09is the honesty that maybe this is supposed to be 65 right and i i i saw you know someone
02:20online like
02:21respected number maker who's like i think i make this 62 and now listen it's week one it's an fcs
02:28team
02:29numbers are going to be over the board but i i think it's almost we can all agree this probably
02:33should
02:33be like 50 right there is a tax here the thing with wanting to and you know david i've been
02:42talking
02:42about this game now you know for for kind of all week here the thing with someone like myself was
02:47ah the value has to be on georgia even if even if it is they still actually have to go
02:53and do the thing
02:55they still have to put up the requisite points here to cover this number what i've settled on and i
03:02and
03:03i don't think you would and the other thing i completely agree with by the way is if you are
03:06on a trend for years you actually don't have to worry about losing this one spot right you're up
03:11lifetime on a trend what i'd like to see this total get to 56 and a half we have a
03:1854 and a half 55 and a
03:19half and i think that i would just play the under and say i i can get 56 nothing or
03:26lower because i don't
03:27think tennessee state's path to covering here as someone who's on tennessee state is scoring
03:3410 points in this game i assume you you would agree with that i do it which is exactly what
03:40i did last
03:40night with oklahoma and utep like i'm not i took the under and we you know we got it by
03:46by the hook
03:47there and under 51 and a half because my play last night it was a tough one again i was
03:51sweating out
03:52oklahoma versus utep at you know 11 o'clock at night when it was 51 nothing the under was the
03:58play to me because i did not expect utep to score period and i wasn't going to take the points
04:03which
04:03were 41 41 and a half knowing that utep was not going to score you have the same problem with
04:09tennessee state that at some point when you look at these big spreads and let's take this one out of
04:14the equation because i'm just writing a trend here i would rather take the under in these type of games
04:19because you know the other team's either going to score three point i mean charlotte scored three
04:24utep scored zero tennessee state might not get past midfield today that's what happens in these big
04:29games and i went to florida and i watched enough of these directional schools to know they're not
04:34going to score in these games or maybe score one touchdown late which could cover a spread but the
04:39under the under is still in play but in this particular case like you said i'm up lifetime i'm
04:44gonna ride it till it dies i'm okay losing it because i've won it all the time
04:48you
