00:00a Texas-Texas State.
00:01Fun little game here, right?
00:03There's a lot of hype around the Bobcats
00:04and the new Pac-12,
00:06but I want to start with Texas,
00:08who I actually kind of struggled with this all offseason.
00:12I think they're getting less hype.
00:14I don't think this is, like, really debatable.
00:16This year versus last year,
00:19and I don't know why.
00:21Why would Arch Manning?
00:23Arch Manning last year,
00:24a lot of people thought was going to be excellent.
00:26He was the preseason favorite,
00:28and it didn't break his way,
00:30got off to this incredibly, incredibly slow start
00:33and then closed just like a monster.
00:38The last time we saw Arch Manning,
00:41he ran for 155 yards and two touchdowns against Michigan,
00:44ran for 155 yards and two touchdowns against Michigan.
00:52Arch Manning had a QBR,
00:53a college football QBR of 90-plus
00:55in four of the final five games.
00:58That this team played.
00:59When you look at the points per game production
01:01from what this team was doing in their first seven games,
01:04which included the San Jose State,
01:07UTEP, Sam Houston games,
01:09and the fact that it went up
01:12almost 10 points in the back half,
01:15which included the Georgia, A&M, Michigan games,
01:19it shows you that it was a team
01:21that offensively turned the corner
01:24and are now better.
01:26Everyone is on campus.
01:27So excited to watch Cam Coleman,
01:29the Auburn transfer,
01:31the running back room,
01:32and Relique Brown and Hollywood Smothers
01:33has a lot of hype as well.
01:35And defensively,
01:36I still find this team to be loaded.
01:39Before we even get ourselves over to today's games,
01:41I know I have a pick on this one here, Dave.
01:44I said to you,
01:45I am a little surprised
01:47that Texas is not the national championship favorite.
01:52I'm not acting like they're 20 to one,
01:54so we're probably splitting hairs,
01:56but I am a little surprised
01:57that I was able to get a nine and a half at plus money
02:00on one of the most talented teams,
02:02if not the most talented teams in the country.
02:06There's no doubt
02:07that they're one of the most talented teams in the country.
02:09And there's no doubt
02:09that if they do what they need to do,
02:11they'll win,
02:12they'll be in the playoff
02:13and be a contender
02:14and your nine to one ticket would be great.
02:16I simply think it comes down to the fact
02:18that in week two,
02:19you play Ohio State,
02:20who everybody else thinks
02:21is the number one team in the country
02:22and Texas lost that matchup last year in Columbus.
02:26And then look at the rest of the schedule.
02:27Now you're evaluating
02:29whether Texas should be the favorite
02:31to win the national title.
02:32At the end of the day,
02:33you just got to get into the playoff
02:34and win a couple of games in a row.
02:36But look at what they need to do.
02:38You get number one,
02:39Ohio State in house.
02:41Then after a couple of warmups
02:43against UTSA and others,
02:44you go at number 20, Tennessee.
02:46You got the neutral site matchup,
02:49Red River,
02:49Red River's number 10, Oklahoma.
02:51You play a Florida team
02:53who somehow in weird universe thing
02:56lost two last year,
02:58which might have been to go down
02:59as one of the biggest upsets ever
03:00with Billy Napier.
03:01But you got Florida.
03:02Then you're at,
03:03then you play Ole Miss.
03:04So that's a gauntlet of Tennessee,
03:06Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss.
03:08Little break.
03:09Then you're at Missouri ranked,
03:10at LSU ranked,
03:12and you finish with at number eight,
03:14A&M.
03:15That's seven ranked teams,
03:17all of which are in the top 20,
03:19and Florida, who's not ranked,
03:21but you lost two last year.
03:22Now, if we see the Archmaning in Texas
03:25that we saw at the end of last season,
03:27they could win every single one of those games,
03:29no doubt.
03:30But I think when you're evaluating the body here
03:33of trying to predict a national champion,
03:35that's one hell of a gauntlet
03:37when you have seven top 20 teams on your schedule,
03:40all of which are in the conference
03:42other than Ohio State.
03:44And by the way,
03:44you're not supposed to beat Ohio State to begin with
03:46because they're number one in the country.
03:48Now, I think the narrative changes
03:50and your nine to one ticket becomes framed
03:53if they knock off number one Ohio State next week.
03:56Yeah.
03:57So I think the reason I've been surprised by it
04:00is not just what I expect.
04:04Again, I expect them to beat Ohio State.
04:06Like I can spoil next week's show already, right?
04:11But it's that, that game is basically pick.
04:14It's a small, small lean towards Texas.
04:15Is that Ohio State are number one
04:17and Ohio State are the favorites
04:19on a lot of these books.
04:20And it's not,
04:21Ohio State does not have some cupcake schedule.
04:23They not only go to Texas,
04:25but they go to Indiana.
04:26They go to USC.
04:27They host Oregon.
04:28They host Michigan.
04:30And I don't think Ohio State,
04:31I'm not acting like Ohio State are untalented.
04:34I'm not like it's Northwestern.
04:35I just think that Texas are more talented.
04:37And I think it made Texas very interesting.
04:40Now the question becomes,
04:41how does Texas handle today's game
04:43a week before the Ohio State game?
04:45Which is one of the biggest games
04:47Sark will have coached in in his time here
04:50as it often seems to be
04:51whenever he plays against Ohio State.
04:53It's just a really big game.
04:54Obviously they met in the semifinal.
04:57I, this is a little more common for them.
04:59Ohio State are used to their first game of the season
05:01kind of being that super big game.
05:03Texas had, you know, instances where
05:05they played a Bama week two,
05:07they played a Michigan week two.
05:08So they see this a little bit here.
05:11And I'm not desperate to lay 29 and a half
05:14when you have a Texas State team
05:15that does have a really talented offense
05:17who can backdoor a number.
05:19But I'm not also super inclined to play an over
05:21when I think the Texas defense could impose their will
05:23for 80% of this game.
05:26I played a Texas team total over at 44 and a half.
05:30I think Arch is here to make a statement.
05:33I think Cam Coleman will be livid
05:34if he's not into the end zone today.
05:36They've got multiple running backs
05:37that they want to feed.
05:39This is a spot here, Dave,
05:41where I do believe they go over a team total
05:44of 44 and a half.
