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00:00 Why Kaliningrad Will be Ukraine 2.0
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00:00 Why Kaliningrad Will be Ukraine 2.0
20:03 SHOCKING New U.S. Weapon Can Turn Any Chinese Aircraft to Dust
37:03 Why Putin Failed to Achieve His Military Objectives in Ukraine (With Maps and Satellite Images)
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NewsTranscript
00:00:01To the outside world, Kaliningrad is simply part of Russia. It's the country's furthest western
00:00:06exclave, meaning it's essentially Putin's gateway to the rest of Europe. And before the war in
00:00:11Ukraine, it was home to a substantial Russian military presence. But the winds of change are
00:00:17blowing in Kaliningrad. The region is evolving from being an important part of Russia, especially
00:00:22in terms of its access to the Baltic Sea, into the potential catalyst for a war that may engulf
00:00:28the Baltic states and, by extension, the rest of Europe. Kaliningrad is on the verge of becoming
00:00:33Ukraine 2.0. And as with any sequel, the possibility is that the fight over and in Kaliningrad could be
00:00:40bigger, scarier, and more all-encompassing than the battle in Ukraine has been so far. At its worst,
00:00:46Kaliningrad could become the unwitting trigger for World War 3. How? That's the question we aim to
00:00:52answer in this video. But before we dive into what makes Kaliningrad such an important scrap of
00:00:57territory, it's worth learning a little more about what it is and, crucially, what it represents to
00:01:02Russia. Kaliningrad's history dates back to 1255 and the rise of the Teutonic Order. In their quest
00:01:09to Christianize as much of Europe as possible, that order took the territory that would become
00:01:13Kaliningrad as part of the Baltic Crusades. Naming it Königsberg, the territory soon became home to
00:01:19thousands of German settlers who spent the next few centuries setting up in Königsberg and
00:01:23establishing it as a separate state. Still, that state had a heavy Germanic influence, meaning it
00:01:29was never truly independent. And that lack of independence was exacerbated by the outbreak of
00:01:33World War 1 in 1914. Königsberg was essentially absorbed into East Prussia during this period,
00:01:39with Germany maintaining direct control over the region throughout both world wars.
00:01:44That's where the Soviet Union comes into play. After the Soviet Union played its part in defeating
00:01:49the Axis powers and ending World War 2, it took part in the creation of the Potsdam Agreement.
00:01:54That agreement set new territorial boundaries within Europe, with Königsberg officially passing
00:01:59into Soviet hands. With 1946 came annexation and the region being split between Poland, Lithuania,
00:02:06and Russia, the former also being under the full or partial Soviet control at the time. And it was
00:02:11rechristened Kaliningrad in honor of the former head of the Soviet state, Mikhail Kalinin.
00:02:16For the next 45 years, Kaliningrad essentially functioned as an exclave of the Soviet Union.
00:02:22The region was turned into an oblast, an administrative division of the Soviet Union
00:02:26and later Russia, and Moscow banned access to the territory for foreigners.
00:02:31The collapse of the Soviet Union brought with it new possibilities for Kaliningrad,
00:02:35though any hopes of it becoming an independent territory were soon dashed when Moscow retained its
00:02:39control over the exclave. It retained its position as an oblast, with control over the region
00:02:44proving crucial to Russia. Not only could Kaliningrad serve as its furthest western territory in Europe,
00:02:50potentially leading to it serving a diplomatic purpose, but it also gave Moscow access to warm
00:02:55water ports during the winter. However, the separation between Kaliningrad and Russia started
00:03:00to become problematic. Kaliningrad is around 676 miles away from Moscow, and it's separated from Russia
00:03:07by both Lithuania and Poland, which encircle the territory. Everything that Russia does in Kaliningrad must go
00:03:13through one of those two countries, usually Lithuania first. It has access to the water thanks
00:03:18to its ports in St. Petersburg, but as those ports regularly freeze over during the winter,
00:03:23that access is somewhat restricted, often leaving Russia reliant on the cooperation of other countries
00:03:28to access Kaliningrad. Therein lies a problem for Moscow, as well as a hint toward one of the reasons
00:03:33why Kaliningrad is on the verge of becoming Ukraine 2.0. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
00:03:39Kaliningrad has operated as a special economic zone, in which there are no import duties and
00:03:43extremely low taxes. That's allowed it to build economic ties with other European countries,
00:03:49including the Baltic states. It's heavily reliant on Moscow. 100 trains pass through Lithuania every
00:03:54month to supply Kaliningrad before the outbreak of the Ukraine war, but it also operates somewhat
00:03:59independently of Russia itself. That near-independence leads us to the first reason why Kaliningrad is
00:04:05gearing up to become Ukraine 2.0. Many in the territory want it to become its own state. That
00:04:10was made clear during the National Online Referendum on Self-Determination of National Republics.
00:04:15Held between February 16th and February 28th, 2023, the referendum was an online poll organized by
00:04:22several activist groups located within and outside of Russian territory. Its results were unofficial.
00:04:28Russia would never approve of such a poll, as even the concept of one of its oblasts wanting to gain
00:04:33independence is a potential sign of Russia's disintegration in the mind of President Vladimir
00:04:37Putin. Still, it happened, despite attempts to shut it down, and the results showed a clear design
00:04:43for independence inside Kaliningrad. A staggering 72.1% of the voters said they wanted freedom,
00:04:49compared to just 27.9% who said they wanted to remain part of Russia. Again, this was an unofficial
00:04:55poll,
00:04:55meaning it doesn't trigger anything that could lead to Kaliningrad actually gaining its independence,
00:05:00but it offers a clear answer to what some analysts dub the Kaliningrad question.
00:05:04The question is simple. What happens to Kaliningrad now that it's essentially isolated from Russia,
00:05:09thanks to the Baltic states surrounding it not only becoming independent,
00:05:12but also becoming members of the European Union? The poll result is just the latest demonstration of
00:05:18the strength of a growing movement within Kaliningrad for the region to cut its ties with Russia,
00:05:22Russia. And it exemplifies the feeling of many within the territory that it's essentially an
00:05:26island, that it's not only cut off from Russia, but also hindered in efforts to build stronger
00:05:31relationships within Europe because of its ties to Moscow. That's the opinion of Alexei Shabonin,
00:05:36a journalist with a Kaliningrad news website named Russian West, who points out that those in the
00:05:41region who love Russia have always felt isolated. But now with the outbreak of war in Ukraine,
00:05:46there is a general feeling of being locked in.
00:05:48The feeling is exacerbated by the fact that Russia has been more than happy to call on
00:05:53Kaliningrad's citizens to fight in Ukraine. According to the military newspaper Stars and
00:05:58Stripes, 5,000 of the 1 million people who live in Kaliningrad had been called up by December 2023,
00:06:04with 450 losing their lives. Outwardly, the exclave has also been supporting Russia's war
00:06:10efforts by providing clothes, camouflage nets, and quadcopters, in addition to providing a large
00:06:15portion of its 2024 budget to fund the war effort. But privately, Shabonin says most in the region
00:06:21just want it all to be over. People try to avoid the topic of the special military operation,
00:06:26they try to live like before. He also points to a lack of trust in the region's authorities,
00:06:31pointing out that many don't believe their leaders when they say they will defend Kaliningrad from being
00:06:35overrun if Russia declares war on the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Instead,
00:06:41they believe the exclave will be turned into rubble, undefended unless it's able to free itself from
00:06:45Russia and ally with the countries around it. We start to see a clear parallel between Kaliningrad
00:06:50and Ukraine here. Like Kaliningrad, Ukraine used to be under Soviet control. It was part of the
00:06:55Soviet Union for around 70 years before its 1991 collapse. After that, Ukraine gained its independence.
00:07:02Kaliningrad didn't. And if Ukraine's independence and Russia's desire to reclaim the territory was a
00:07:07trigger for the crisis we're seeing today, Kaliningrad's desire for independence could
00:07:11serve the same purpose. Should the exclave free itself from Russia, it might only be a matter of
00:07:16time before Putin, or whoever comes after him, attempts to reclaim it. Of course, it's not just
00:07:21Kaliningrad causing problems here. Lithuania will also play a role in Kaliningrad becoming Ukraine 2.0.
00:07:27Earlier we discussed how Kaliningrad is essentially locked away from Russia,
00:07:31with Lithuania having served as Moscow's main point of access for decades. That wasn't a problem before
00:07:36the Ukraine crisis. Russia was generally able to ensure the travel of both citizens and cargo
00:07:41through Lithuania and into Kaliningrad without issue. The war changed all of that. As a response
00:07:47to Russia's actions, Lithuania has repeatedly banned Russian travel through its territory.
00:07:52Its parliament voted to impose the Law on Imposing Restrictive Measures regarding the military
00:07:57aggression against Ukraine in 2023, creating a year-long ban on most Russian citizens from gaining
00:08:03visas to enter the country. The law was extended in April 2024 to run for at least another year,
00:08:09meaning Russia won't have ground-based access to Kaliningrad until, at best, May 2, 2025.
00:08:15Lithuania has also happily participated in the sanctions imposed on Russia since the outbreak of
00:08:20war. It's a clear supporter of Ukraine, it's provided about $500 million in financial aid to the
00:08:26country since February 2022, and it has its own history with Russia. Like Ukraine before it and Kaliningrad
00:08:32currently, Lithuania also fell under the Soviet yoke in the wake of World War II, only gaining its
00:08:37independence upon the collapse of the Soviet Union. In essence, it, along with the other Baltic
00:08:42states, has established itself as a clear enemy of Russia and Putin's aggressive tactics in Ukraine.
00:08:48It's also restricted access to Kaliningrad by preventing Russians from traveling to the
00:08:52oblast via land. They instead have to rely on a seaborne route from St. Petersburg, which is affected
00:08:58by the cold temperatures mentioned earlier. In the context of Kaliningrad becoming Ukraine 2.0,
00:09:03Lithuania's actions present two issues. First, they serve to further isolate Kaliningrad from Russia,
00:09:09which may have an interesting impact on the oblast's population. After all, there's already a clear and
00:09:15growing pro-independence movement. Given that Kaliningrad is supported directly by Russia,
00:09:19that movement could grow even larger as conditions deteriorate in the oblast. Its residents might
00:09:24increasingly feel that the prospect of essentially becoming a fourth Baltic state would serve it
00:09:29better. At least then, it would be able to expand its relationships in Europe, perhaps to the point
00:09:34where it follows Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia in becoming a member of the EU and NATO. There's a
00:09:39major upside for Kaliningrad here, especially as Lithuania's sanctions and travel restrictions on
00:09:44Russia begin to cause more problems in the region. Second, Lithuania has angered Russia with this move,
00:09:50raising the possibility of Russia declaring war on it and the other Baltic states in response.
00:09:54That would lead to a somewhat indirect Ukraine 2.0 situation. Russia wouldn't be declaring war
00:10:00on Kaliningrad. It already owns the region, but it would declare war on the country that's
00:10:05preventing it from accessing that territory, potentially bringing the other Baltic nations
00:10:09into the fight, and due to Lithuania's NATO membership, creating a wider global conflict.
00:10:14All over Kaliningrad
00:10:16It's also worth expanding on this concept of Kaliningrad becoming the fourth Baltic state.
00:10:21That's essentially what would happen if it were to gain independence from Russia,
00:10:24and some countries are already treating the region as an independent territory,
00:10:28at least in name. Countries like Poland.
00:10:31In May 2023, Poland decided that it would no longer refer to Kaliningrad by that name
00:10:36in any of its official documentation. Instead, it'll call the region Krolović,
00:10:40the name it had when it was ruled by the Kingdom of Poland during the 15th and 16th centuries.
00:10:45That decision adds a further wrinkle to the tale. Some could argue that this appears to be a direct
00:10:50act of aggression by Poland, with the name change suggesting that it might have designs on claiming
00:10:54Kaliningrad as its own. That isn't the case, at least according to the country's development
00:10:59minister, Waldemar Buda, who says the decision was made to prevent Russification in Poland.
00:11:04We do not want Russification in Poland, and that's why we have decided to change the name
00:11:08in our native language of Kaliningrad and the Kaliningrad region, he said, when explaining
00:11:12Poland's decision. Either way, Russia is furious. The Kremlin described the decision as a hostile act,
00:11:18likely because it clearly serves as an indirect question of Russia's control over Kaliningrad.
00:11:23Again, we see fuel being poured onto the fire of the Oblast's independence movement.
00:11:27After all, if one country is willing to recognize Kaliningrad as a separate entity,
00:11:32even in name only, there's a chance that others could follow suit.
00:11:35That's the last thing that Putin wants.
00:11:38So, we have several reasons why Kaliningrad could become Ukraine 2.0 in the coming years.
00:11:43The growing independence movement in the Oblast represents a clear threat to Moscow that
00:11:47Putin will want to put down. Lithuania and his decision to restrict Russian travel through
00:11:51its territory isolate Moscow further from Kaliningrad, perhaps feeding into the region's
00:11:55independence movement while angering Putin. Then there's Poland's naming decision, a hostile
00:12:00act that only feeds into the idea of Kaliningrad becoming an independent region.
00:12:04Now let's switch focus to another issue, the Baltic Fleet.
00:12:08We've already touched on one of the reasons why Kaliningrad is such an important territory
00:12:12for Russia. The Oblast's port city, Baltiysk, is the only port Russia has on the Baltic Sea
00:12:17that doesn't ice over when the winter comes. It's where Russia stations its Baltic Fleet.
00:12:22In 2008, the most recent year for which we have figures, that fleet numbered 55 combat ships
00:12:28of varying types. These included several destroyers, corvettes, and frigates, along with
00:12:33landing ships and a pair of submarines. The fleet roughly represents about a tenth of Russia's
00:12:38entire naval power, and it needs constant support in terms of resources and personnel to be effective.
00:12:44Enter Lithuania's decision to ban Russians from traveling through its territory again.
00:12:49Not only does that decision hinder Russia from delivering supplies to the people,
00:12:53but it also has an impact on the Baltic Fleet stationed in the Oblast.
00:12:56Again, we point to St. Petersburg and the fact that its ports ice over in the winter.
00:13:01When that happens, the Baltic Fleet is essentially cut off from Moscow, ending up stuck in the only
00:13:06warm water port that Russia has in the Baltic Sea. Worse yet for Russia, being cut off from
00:13:10Kaliningrad reduces its ability to keep control over the Baltic Sea. That's especially the case
00:13:15now that Finland, another old rival of Russia's, has become a NATO member. With that membership granted,
00:13:21NATO has extended its own border along the Baltic Sea, leading some to start calling the small
00:13:26stretch of water a NATO lake. A lake that NATO could use to even further isolate Kaliningrad from
00:13:32Russia. What does that have to do with Ukraine? Russia found itself in a similar situation with
00:13:37Ukraine several years before it invaded the country. As Kaliningrad is host to the Baltic
00:13:42Fleet, so too was Sevastopol, home to the Black Sea Fleet, further south. Sevastopol is in the Crimean
00:13:47region, which created a problem for Russia when the Soviet Union collapsed. Crimea went to Ukraine,
00:13:53with Kyiv then potentially having a claim over the former Soviet Union's Black Sea Fleet.
00:13:57Russia wasn't about to hand over a large chunk of its navy to a country that was now independent of
00:14:02it, resulting in a compromise being reached in 1997, the Partition Treaty on the Status and
00:14:07Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet. Under that treaty, 9 out of every 11 ships in the Black Sea Fleet
00:14:13were
00:14:13given back to Russia, with the remaining 2 staying with Ukraine. While that may seem to be a bad deal
00:14:18for Ukraine, because it was, the country was strapped for cash at the time of the treaty's signing,
00:14:22so in return for the lopsided deal, Russia promised to pay Ukraine $526 million.
00:14:28However, there was something that Russia wanted even more than the ships,
00:14:32the Sevastopol base in which the Black Sea Fleet was docked.
00:14:35Russia couldn't buy that base outright, it was part of Ukraine, but it could rent the base from
00:14:40Ukraine, giving it access to another crucial warm water port while also ensuring its Black Sea Fleet
00:14:45actually had access to the sea that gave it the name. Russia inked another deal with Ukraine,
00:14:50this time promising to pay $97 million per year to rent the base, while at the same time promising
00:14:55to respect the sovereignty and independence of the new Ukrainian state. We all know how that worked
00:15:00out. But why did we get to this point where Russia invaded Ukraine? The simple answer is that Russia
00:15:05had a problem, its Sevastopol base lease wasn't permanent. Toward the end of 2008, Putin found himself
00:15:12dealing with Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's President and Prime Minister
00:15:17respectively, and crucially, both pro-West politicians. They announced that when 2017
00:15:22arrived, Russia would have to leave Sevastopol, handing the base back to Ukraine. But there was
00:15:27another twist in the tale. In 2010, Yushchenko was ousted by Viktor Yanukovych, meaning the Ukrainian
00:15:33presidency was anti-West again. Wasting no time, Yanukovych extended Russia's lease at Sevastopol until
00:15:392042, once again securing Russia's access to the Black Sea. All was well for Russia again, until…
00:15:46The 2014 Maidan revolution saw Yanukovych flee Ukraine, placing the lease in danger once more.
00:15:53This time, Putin wasn't going to sit back and take the potential loss of a valuable base. Instead,
00:15:58taking advantage of the chaos the revolution caused, he chose to annex Crimea, claiming Sevastopol as Russian
00:16:04territory in the process and getting rid of the whole leasing issue. It's here where the parallels
00:16:09with Kaliningrad become clearer. When Russia annexed Crimea, Ukraine retaliated by blocking
00:16:14Russian land access to the Crimean peninsula, thus preventing the country from transporting anything
00:16:19to its Black Sea fleet by land. It's almost a mirror image of what Lithuania has done to Russia
00:16:24in relation to the Baltic fleet. At first, Russia navigated around this restriction by ferrying troops
00:16:29and equipment into Sevastopol via the Kerch Strait. But that approach had limitations, resulting in
00:16:35Russia taking a second option – construction of the Crimea Bridge. Opened in 2018, the bridge allows
00:16:41cars, trucks and, in 2020, freight rail passengers to access Sevastopol without having to worry about
00:16:47Ukraine's land restrictions. Interestingly, we see the importance of that bridge in Russia's movements
00:16:52throughout Ukraine since the war began. It's pushed south heavily toward Mariupol because it needs that
00:16:58land to complete the Crimea Bridge. The importance of this bridge is also the reason why Ukraine has
00:17:02targeted it numerous times. It's already launched two attacks against the bridge, with an April 2024
00:17:08report published in The Guardian suggesting that a third attack is inevitable. Taking out that bridge
00:17:14would force Russia to transport its war supplies through southern Ukraine, perhaps hindering Moscow's
00:17:18forces on the ground by slowing down their access to supplies. But let's bring things back to the
00:17:23situation in Kaliningrad. Right now, Russia faces a similar problem to the one it dealt with when it
00:17:28took Crimea. It owns the land, but it doesn't have access to it. And in the case of Kaliningrad,
00:17:33it can't get around the lack of access by building a new bridge. It needs to go through Lithuania,
00:17:38a country that's imposed heavy sanctions on Russia due to the war in Ukraine. And perhaps Putin might
00:17:43decide that the only way to regain full access to Kaliningrad will be to take Lithuania, getting rid of
00:17:48the sanctions issue in the process. And make no mistake, Russia wants to keep control of Kaliningrad.
00:17:53Not only is it the site of the Baltic fleet, but it's also home to several of Russia's Iskander
00:17:58missiles. Those missiles are capable of carrying nuclear payloads. Given Kaliningrad's positioning,
00:18:03remember that it's the furthest Russian territory that reaches into Europe. Putin will want to maintain
00:18:08access simply so he can use Kaliningrad to make nuclear threats should he need to. Still,
00:18:13there's one saving grace that might prevent Putin from launching any attacks against Lithuania that would
00:18:18restore its access to Kaliningrad, akin to the annexation of Crimea. Lithuania is a member of
00:18:23NATO. That membership means that Lithuania benefits from Article 5 of the NATO Charter,
00:18:28which says that any attack on a NATO member's land is considered an attack on all NATO members.
00:18:33It's the Three Musketeers principle, all for one and one for all, expanded to a global scale.
00:18:39If Putin were to attack Lithuania, it wouldn't just be Lithuania that he would have to fight.
00:18:43He would drag the United Kingdom into the war, France, Germany, Latvia, and Estonia,
00:18:48Lithuania's Baltic neighbors, and most importantly, the United States. None of those countries have
00:18:54directly intervened in the war in Ukraine because Ukraine isn't a NATO member. They've been limited
00:18:59to sending money and supplies, but if Russia launched an attack on Lithuania, they're duty-bound
00:19:03to respond militristically, which could ignite a third world war. So the Kaliningrad situation rests on a
00:19:10knife edge. It's still Russian territory, with the fact being unlikely to change, even though the
00:19:15independence movement within the exclave is growing stronger by the month. It also offers disturbing
00:19:20parallels to Ukraine, particularly in the sense of how Kaliningrad mirrors the issues Russia had with
00:19:25the Sevastopol base in terms of land access. Moscow is even having to deal with some countries,
00:19:30Poland key among them, starting to treat Kaliningrad somewhat like an independent state.
00:19:34But there are key factors that might stay Putin's hand. NATO is the obvious one. Russia likely doesn't
00:19:40have the appetite for a global war that would draw in its strongest enemy, making it unlikely that he
00:19:45would attempt to take Lithuania to restore ground access to Kaliningrad. Then there's the uncertainty
00:19:50over the Ukraine war and what its aftermath might look like to consider. If Russia wins, would it then
00:19:56be able to rebuild its relationship with the Baltic states, to the point where free travel to
00:20:00Kaliningrad is in its reach once more? Only time will tell. The Dark Eagle can fly. Those words are
00:20:08music to the ears of anyone who's watched China boast about dominating the hypersonic race. For years,
00:20:14Beijing's relentless investments and rapid advancements left the US playing catch-up. The US
00:20:19officials even openly admitted it, claiming that China's systems and infrastructure outpace everyone,
00:20:24including Russia. But that era is over. After years of watching Beijing claim the lead, the US has
00:20:30answered with something that does more than just compete. It obliterates everything and everyone in
00:20:36its path. The Dark Eagle isn't just a missile. It's proof that when America shows up, it shows up
00:20:42swinging. Here's everything you need to know about this impressive weapon that China is entirely
00:20:46defenseless against. Officially known as the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon, LRHW, the Dark Eagle is a
00:20:53surface-to-surface missile system built for speed, precision, and power. This land-based,
00:20:59truck-launched hypersonic marvel is engineered to deliver devastating strikes at intermediate ranges,
00:21:05giving the US a clear edge in modern warfare. This much-needed edge is the result of a powerful
00:21:10collaboration between the US Army and Navy. Each of these branches contributed its unique expertise to
00:21:16create this game-changing weapon. The Navy might refer to it under a different name, the conventional
00:21:21prompt strike system, but the essence of the missile remains the same. This missile is also
00:21:25making a name for itself as THE missile to beat. The partnership between the Army and Navy began in
00:21:312018 when the latter was tasked with leading the design of the common hypersonic glide body,
00:21:36with significant input from the former's Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office.
00:21:41This joint effort has been crucial in advancing hypersonic technology. Vice Admiral Johnny Wolfe,
00:21:46Jr. of the Navy's Strategic Systems Program couldn't have put it better, calling the collaboration
00:21:51a demonstration of how both branches can come together to develop a transformational weapon
00:21:56system. The result of this collaboration? A missile designed for both land and sea platforms.
00:22:01While the Army prepares to deploy the Dark Eagle, the Navy is integrating its own version into surface
00:22:06and subsurface platforms, ensuring the US military's reach will be felt far and wide. So what did the
00:22:12brilliant minds from these two branches come up with? A design that's testament to cutting-edge
00:22:16engineering, of course. The Dark Eagle combines the best of both advanced propulsion and hypersonic
00:22:22glide technology. At its core, the missile consists of a large rocket booster that carries the unpowered,
00:22:28common hypersonic glide body, CHGB, in its nose cone. Once the booster propels the missile to incredible
00:22:33speeds and altitudes, it releases the CHGB, which then glides towards its target at hypersonic speeds,
00:22:39leaving anything in its path vulnerable to its kinetic energy warhead.
00:22:43This design draws on decades of innovation. The CHGB is actually based on earlier projects like the
00:22:49Army's Alternate Reentry System, which was tested in early 2010. This technology in turn traces its
00:22:54roots to the Sandia Winged Energetic Reentry Vehicle Experiment, Swerve, from the 1980s. With Dynetics
00:23:01responsible for building the glide vehicle and Lockheed Martin tasked with constructing the booster
00:23:05and handling missile assembly, the Dark Eagle represents the culmination of years of research
00:23:10and collaboration from some of the most trusted names in defense technology. And that's what makes
00:23:14it truly special and stand out in the hypersonic world. The US's goal wasn't to put out one hypersonic
00:23:20weapon after another in some desperate scramble. Rather than rushing and flooding the market with
00:23:24unreliable and incomplete systems, the US took its time to create the Dark Eagle. And its specifications
00:23:30show this. The Dark Eagle's Boost Glide technology allows it to reach unimaginable speeds. The speed
00:23:36in question is up to Mach 17. That's 17 times the speed of sound, or 12,940 miles per hour.
00:23:44At this
00:23:44speed, the Dark Eagle doesn't just break the sound barrier, it shatters it, leaving any attempt at
00:23:48defense in the dust, right where any Chinese assets targeted by this missile will find themselves.
00:23:53But the speed isn't the only impressive thing about the Dark Eagle. With an operational range of over
00:23:581,724 miles, the Dark Eagle has the longest reach of any land-based strike system in the US inventory.
00:24:05This range means that the Dark Eagle can strike high-value, time-critical targets from a distance
00:24:09with unparalleled precision. Whether it's a heavily fortified military installation or a critical
00:24:14command center, the Dark Eagle's warhead will deliver a devastating blow exactly where it's needed.
00:24:20What truly sets the Dark Eagle apart, however, is its maneuverability and survivability. Its hypersonic
00:24:25glide body can evade even the most advanced air defenses, ensuring it can reach its targets in
00:24:30the most contested environments. This includes even anti-access area denial zones, where traditional
00:24:36strike capabilities are often rendered useless. The fact that the Dark Eagle can penetrate A2AD
00:24:41zones is of immense importance, given that China continues to enhance its anti-access area denial
00:24:47capabilities. So far, these capabilities have dramatically altered the balance of power in the
00:24:51Indo-Pacific. Thanks to a web of advanced anti-ship ballistic missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles,
00:24:57surface-to-air missiles, and a robust fleet of submarines and fighter jets,
00:25:00China has designed a mighty defense network, intended to keep foreign military forces at bay,
00:25:05especially the US. And that's the primary goal of China's A2AD systems, to prevent or at least
00:25:11complicate any foreign intervention in key regions like the Taiwan Strait, by denying adversaries the
00:25:16ability to operate freely in these contested zones. But there's no denying it, when it comes to the
00:25:21Dark Eagle. Its speed and maneuverability allow it to outpace and evade the sophisticated missile
00:25:25defense systems embedded within China's A2AD strategy, such as the S-400 missile system,
00:25:31or the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile. And that was precisely the goal of the Dark Eagle,
00:25:36to ensure no one can stop the US. With China racing to field hypersonic weapons,
00:25:41the US recognized the need to stay ahead in this rapidly evolving arms race, a very dangerous race
00:25:46at that. For the US, the development of the Dark Eagle and other hypersonic weapons became a matter
00:25:51of national security and strategic advantage. That's why the entire country rejoiced once it
00:25:56was announced the Dark Eagle completed a successful end-to-end flight test on December 12, 2024.
00:26:01This monumental test demonstrated the missile's extraordinary capabilities,
00:26:05not just in terms of its raw speed, but also its precision, maneuverability,
00:26:08and ability to navigate hostile environments. The test was the culmination of years of rigorous
00:26:13research and development, and it marked a major step toward securing a technological advantage
00:26:18for the US military in an increasingly contested global landscape. But before exploring this test
00:26:23in more detail, it's important to note that it was just the latest in a series of increasingly
00:26:27successful milestones, each one propelling the missile closer to operational status.
00:26:32The journey began in October 2017, when the first test of the Dark Eagle took place.
00:26:37The missile, designed to fit the launch tube of an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine,
00:26:41was fired from Hawaii and flew over 2,000 nautical miles to the Marshall Islands at hypersonic speeds.
00:26:47The initial flight was a significant proof of concept, demonstrating that a missile could
00:26:51travel at extreme speeds while maintaining accuracy over such a vast distance. The results were promising,
00:26:56and the development team knew they were on the right track. But they also knew that much more
00:27:00testing would be needed to fine-tune the technology. Fast forward to March 2020, when the CHGB,
00:27:05a key component of the Dark Eagle system, underwent another round of testing. During this period,
00:27:10subsystems of the LRHW system were tested as part of Project Convergence 2022, a critical testing
00:27:16program aimed at advancing the Army's capabilities. These tests focused on refining the missile's
00:27:21components and ensuring they could work in unison, setting the stage for future end-to-end tests.
00:27:27This phase was crucial for demonstrating how the missile would perform in real-world operational
00:27:31conditions. Then came June 28, 2024, another pivotal moment in the Dark Eagle's development.
00:27:37On this day, the U.S. Department of Defense announced the successful completion of an end-to-end test
00:27:42of the U.S. Army's LRHW All-Up Round or AUR missile and the U.S. Navy's conventional prompt strike
00:27:48missile. Launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Kauai, Hawaii, the missile hit its target
00:27:53over 2,000 miles away in the Marshall Islands. This successful flight was a clear demonstration of the
00:27:58missile's capability to operate at hypersonic speeds over great distances and confirmed that
00:28:03the technology was maturing rapidly. With this test, the system was beginning to prove its worth
00:28:08not just on paper but in practice. But it was the second successful flight in December 2024 that
00:28:13really grabbed everyone's attention. This test, conducted at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station
00:28:18in Florida, was monumental for several reasons. First, it marked the first live-fire event of the missile
00:28:23using a ground-based launcher and a battery operations center, a key step in demonstrating
00:28:28the Dark Eagle's operational readiness. The missile then flew at hypersonic speeds,
00:28:32more than five times the speed of sound, and successfully struck a target over long distances.
00:28:36As a result, this test proved that the entire missile system was functioning as intended,
00:28:41not just individual components. The Pentagon quickly hailed the test as a major milestone,
00:28:46signaling that the weapon was getting closer to being combat-ready. Secretary of the Army,
00:28:49Christine Wormuth, celebrated the achievement, saying, This test builds on several flight tests
00:28:54and demonstrates that we can put this capability in the hands of the warfighter. She emphasized that
00:28:59the successful flight showed the missile's potential to be integrated into the Army's arsenal.
00:29:03Secretary of the Navy Carlos del Toro also voiced strong support, highlighting that the test was a
00:29:08crucial step toward integrating the hypersonic missile into both Navy surface and subsurface ships.
00:29:13But while this test was a significant leap forward, it's not the end of the road.
00:29:16The US military is already looking ahead to the next phases of development.
00:29:20The Pentagon is gearing up for what's known as Hypersonics 2.0 and 3.0,
00:29:25an ambitious plan to refine and expand the capabilities of hypersonic weapons.
00:29:29These phases will focus not just on the weapons themselves,
00:29:32but also how they will integrate into the broader military strategy.
00:29:35This particularly applies to how these weapons fit into what's referred to as a
00:29:39Kill Web. The Kill Web is a multi-layered approach to warfare,
00:29:42where various assets from land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace work together
00:29:47to create an interconnected system of attack. As Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
00:29:51Admiral Christopher Grady notes, hypersonic weapons will not only help the US strike
00:29:55adversary targets, but also defend against hypersonic weapons from other nations.
00:30:00This dual capability is critical as China continues to push forward with its own hypersonic missile
00:30:05program. In terms of specific milestones, the first LRHW battery, which includes eight missiles,
00:30:11was deployed in 2023. This deployment is a critical step toward full operational capability
00:30:16for the US Army, with an expected timeline of one to two years for achieving full readiness.
00:30:20Once operational, the LRHW will be positioned in Germany to counter advanced threats,
00:30:25including Russia's Oreshnik hypersonic complex, as tensions in Europe remain high.
00:30:30The Navy too is preparing to integrate hypersonic capabilities into its fleet.
00:30:34The Navy plans to deploy the missiles on its Zumwalt-class destroyers by 2025.
00:30:38This move will greatly enhance the service's ability to strike targets at long range in
00:30:43an increasingly competitive global landscape. The Navy also intends to deploy the weapon aboard
00:30:47the Block V Virginia-class submarines by 2029, providing a stealthy, undersea launch option
00:30:53for hypersonic weapons. This means that China and other US adversaries won't be safe anywhere,
00:30:59not in the air, not on the ground, not in the sea. Of course, China won't just sit idly by.
00:31:04The country has already been advancing its missile defense and air defense capabilities rapidly.
00:31:09The Dark Eagle's debut will only push China to escalate its efforts further. With this in mind,
00:31:13let's see what the Dark Eagle is currently up against.
00:31:16China has spent years developing a range of technologies aimed at enhancing its ability
00:31:20to defend against missiles, particularly in the face of perceived threats from the US,
00:31:25Russia, and increasingly India. Beijing has several defense systems in place or under development,
00:31:29including ground-based mid-course interceptors like the Dong Neng-3, DN-3, and the HQ-19,
00:31:36which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles during their mid-course and terminal stages. The DN-3,
00:31:41a hit-to-kill interceptor, and the HQ-19, derived from the HQ-9, are often compared to US systems
00:31:47like
00:31:47the Standard Missile-3 and THAAD. China's development of ballistic missile defense,
00:31:51BMD, has been strongly influenced by its desire to protect its political leadership,
00:31:55nuclear forces, and key infrastructure from preemptive attacks. The country has made significant
00:32:00progress in developing ASAT, anti-satellite weapons, which share technologies with BMD systems.
00:32:06Both of these systems are part of a multi-layered defense strategy aimed at countering incoming
00:32:10ballistic missiles, but they would struggle to handle hypersonic threats like the Dark Eagle.
00:32:15The Dark Eagle operates at speeds far beyond the capabilities of China's missile defense
00:32:19technologies. But more importantly, this missile can perform unpredictable maneuvers mid-flight,
00:32:24making it incredibly difficult to track and intercept with traditional ballistic missile
00:32:28defenses and air defense systems. China's current defense systems can't tackle a missile that
00:32:32follows an unpredictable trajectory. They might be capable against slower, more predictable threats.
00:32:37However, they simply don't have the speed, agility, or precision needed to effectively target
00:32:42and intercept a hypersonic missile. But what about China's air defense systems?
00:32:46On the air defense side, China has also invested heavily in advanced systems,
00:32:50such as the HQ-9 and the S-400, to defend against a wide variety of threats.
00:32:54This includes missiles, aircraft, and drones. The HQ-9, deployed in contested regions like the
00:32:59South China Sea and the S-400, a Russian system, have the capability to intercept
00:33:03shorter-range ballistic missiles, as well as cruise missiles. However, these systems are primarily
00:33:08designed to counter traditional air and missile threats, not high-speed maneuvering hypersonic
00:33:13missiles like the Dark Eagle. China's lack of a robust early warning sensor network is another
00:33:18significant gap in its air defense architecture. While the country has made strides in developing
00:33:22satellites for missile detection, it still lags behind the US in terms of sensor technology.
00:33:27The radar and satellite infrastructure needed to detect and track hypersonic missiles in real time
00:33:32is still in its infancy. This places China at a significant disadvantage when it comes to
00:33:37defending against advanced threats like the Dark Eagle. Still, China is moving forward with the
00:33:42development of systems like the HQ-26, a naval missile defense interceptor. It's also exploring
00:33:47ways to integrate more advanced sensors and radars into its existing systems. However,
00:33:51much of this technology is still in the testing and development phase, and its effectiveness against
00:33:56hypersonic threats has yet to be proven. In other words, none of China's existing defense systems are
00:34:01well suited to handle the unique characteristics the Dark Eagle brings to the table. The speed,
00:34:06maneuverability, and unpredictability of this system places it well beyond the capabilities of
00:34:10China's entire missile defense infrastructure. As a result, if the US were to use the Dark Eagle against
00:34:15China, there would be little to no chance of interception or effective countermeasures.
00:34:20The Dark Eagle would strike any target within minutes, rendering China's defense systems obsolete
00:34:25before they even had a chance to react. And these targets, whether military aircraft,
00:34:29radar systems, or key infrastructure, would be reduced to dust almost instantaneously.
00:34:33But that's just how the Dark Eagle would perform against China. What about other nations
00:34:37with hypersonic capabilities? As you can probably guess from all the mentions in this video,
00:34:41Russia is another major contender in the hypersonic race. Around the time the Dark Eagle was successfully
00:34:46tested for the second time in 2024, Russia's President Vladimir Putin went on an entire
00:34:51campaign to showcase Russia's own hypersonic missile, the Oreshnik. Now it's hard to miss
00:34:56Putin's confidence in this missile, as he's practically shouting from the rooftops about how amazing it is.
00:35:01According to him, this missile, which strikes at speeds of Mach 10,
00:35:05can render any countermeasures completely useless. Putin even had the audacity to suggest that the Oreshnik
00:35:10could make nuclear weapons obsolete, boasting that it's basically untouchable by modern air defenses.
00:35:15However, while the Oreshnik reportedly boasts impressive speed and power, it doesn't quite
00:35:19match the Dark Eagle in terms of versatility. Though it's still unclear whether the Dark Eagle
00:35:23is nuclear-capable like the Oreshnik, this doesn't make it any less lethal. Its focus on sheer precision
00:35:29and speed makes it a devastating weapon on its own, even if it does have a non-nuclear status. Plus,
00:35:34the US has a clear edge when it comes to integrating these weapons into a full-spectrum military strategy,
00:35:39allowing the Dark Eagle to leave the Oreshnik in the dust too.
00:35:42When it comes to missile defenses, Russia fields two notable systems, the S-400 and the S-500.
00:35:48We've already discussed the incompetence of the S-400 to counter the Dark Eagle,
00:35:52but what about its more advanced counterpart? Well, on paper, the S-500 is capable of intercepting
00:35:57hypersonic weapons. But let's be real, Russian systems always look great on paper, but when it
00:36:02comes to the actual test of battle, they fall short. The truth is that in practice, the S-500 is
00:36:07still
00:36:08unproven. Perhaps it could be adapted to intercept hypersonic missiles, but tackling such a
00:36:12sophisticated high-speed weapon like the Dark Eagle is a whole other beast. In contrast, the US is far
00:36:18more advanced in hypersonic defense and missile defense overall. The ground-based mid-course defense
00:36:23GMD system, Aegis BMD, and a more mature space-based tracking infrastructure place the US ahead of China
00:36:30and Russia in terms of missile defense coverage as well. The US also maintains sea-based missile defense
00:36:35systems that enhance its ability to track and intercept threats. More importantly, there are
00:36:40ongoing efforts to build defenses against weapons that travel at speeds surpassing Mach 5. In other
00:36:45words, the US isn't just looking to maintain its lead, it's actively working on expanding its edge,
00:36:50both in offense and defense. But where do you see this hypersonic race heading next? Will China or Russia
00:36:55be able to develop effective defenses against the Dark Eagle, or are we witnessing the dawn of a new
00:37:00era where the US military once again holds the upper hand?
00:37:04Putin's plan seemed foolproof. A lightning invasion, Kyiv under his control in days, and Ukraine
00:37:10swiftly crushed. But instead of a swift victory, he faced disaster. Ukraine didn't just fight back,
00:37:17they turned the battlefield into a nightmare for Russia. Putin's forces stalled, his strategy
00:37:22unraveled, and his ambitions crumbled. So how did it all go so wrong? In this video, we'll dive into the
00:37:28crucial battles, daring Ukrainian counterattacks, and shocking mistakes that derailed Russia's
00:37:34invasion. With maps and satellite images, we'll expose the moments that shattered Putin's plans,
00:37:39and explore how Ukraine turned the tide in a war that was supposed to be over in weeks.
00:37:44Buckle up, it's a story of resilience, chaos, and miscalculation that changed everything. But before we
00:37:50get to all that, let's start before the war itself started. Russia's initial build-up. In the months
00:37:55leading up to Putin's invasion of Ukraine, several news outlets shared satellite imagery
00:37:59showing an increasing Russian military build-up near Ukraine's borders. Politico was one of those
00:38:05outlets. In November 2021, it released commercial satellite photos showing Russian troops amassing
00:38:11in the town of Yelnaya, which is near the border of Belarus. As we would later discover, Belarus would
00:38:16be used as one of Russia's key launching points for the initial invasion. The image showed multiple
00:38:20units moving in late September, with those units including elite members of the 1st Guards Tank
00:38:26Army. Further analysis of these images also showed that Russia's 4th Tank Division had been moved,
00:38:32migrating from its normal location into areas near the Russian cities of Kursk and Bryansk,
00:38:37on the edges of Ukraine's northern borders. Those units appeared to be equipped with T-80U
00:38:42main battle tanks, alongside a large collection of self-propelled artillery. More artillery was spotted in
00:38:48Yelnaya, with pictures showing row upon row of artillery arranged neatly and prepared for the
00:38:53special military operation. Yelnaya would quickly emerge as a key location in this initial build-up.
00:38:59High-resolution satellite images also showed troop tents springing up, signifying that Russia was
00:39:04turning the location into an administrative area from which it could conduct the initial invasion.
00:39:09It would be several more months before Putin launched his special military operation.
00:39:13In the time between Politico releasing its photos and February 24, 2022, several other outlets would
00:39:19also release satellite imagery showing the Russian build-up. Just 20 days before the war began, CNN
00:39:25published before and after shots of several key locations. In Novenozaya, Crimea, images captured on
00:39:31February 1 showed masses of tents being erected in fields that had been bare just six months before.
00:39:36The Opuk training area in Crimea saw a similar military build-up. A previously barren region,
00:39:42with no buildings or tents in sight in November 2021, was suddenly awash in a sea of military tents.
00:39:48Further afield, a training camp in Poganovo also saw increased activity, with the handful of tents
00:39:53seen in satellite images captured in November 2021 being supplemented by more tents, artillery,
00:39:59and tanks mere months later. And again, Yelnaya came to the fore. CNN's images showed a clear build-up
00:40:05of armored units and supporting equipment taking place in the region between November 2021 and January 2022.
00:40:12Other images were even more worrying. Pictures of the Pershanovsky training ground captured in
00:40:17January 2022 seemed to show a landscape pockmarked with impact craters, the likely result of artillery
00:40:23and missile tests in preparation for the special military operation. Similar scenes were captured in
00:40:28Belarus, where satellites captured and is scanned a short-range ballistic missile being deployed in the
00:40:33Osipovici training ground. In an interview with CNN, a defense analyst named Konrad Muzika estimated
00:40:39that there were between 74 and 76 Russian battalion tactical groups in position around Ukraine,
00:40:45with each of those groups containing 1,000 soldiers alongside several support units.
00:40:49Russian ground forces had also deployed missiles, he claimed, saying there were likely 48 launchers in
00:40:55Belarus or stationed in areas of Russia close to the Ukrainian border. Al Jazeera also began reporting on
00:41:01the military build-up. Just three days before Putin launched his operation, it released a satellite
00:41:05image showing an armored battalion heading south from the Soloti military base. The images showed that
00:41:11most of the troops and equipment stationed there had departed by February 13, 2022, all moving to new
00:41:16positions along Ukraine's border to help with the coming invasion. Back to CNN, which published a map
00:41:22showing that Ukraine was now surrounded on three sides. To the north lay new units deployed to Brest,
00:41:27Barinovici, Leznovka, Yelnaya, Klimovo, and Rechista, with many of those new units coming equipped with
00:41:34tanks, artillery, and armored vehicles. It was a similar story to the east. New units had appeared in
00:41:39Postoialya, Dvoray, and Pogonovo, apparently to supplement the permanent military bases Russia had
00:41:45already established in Volgograd, Soloti, and Rostov-on-Don. Moving south and into Crimea, new units were also
00:41:52being deployed in Novozunaya, as mentioned earlier, and Bakhtisari. The warning signs were all there.
00:41:58A clear Russian plan had been forming in the months leading to the invasion.
00:42:01From at least November 2021 and likely before, the satellite imagery showed Russian troops moving
00:42:07to new locations and converting previously empty locations into administrative or storage locations.
00:42:13All of this was being done to surround Ukraine. With around a dozen notable troop build-ups spread
00:42:17across the border Russia shared with Ukraine, it aimed to invade from multiple positions, allowing
00:42:22it to overwhelm Ukraine's initial defenses before fighting into Ukraine. It was a good plan, and for
00:42:28a few weeks it looked like it was going to work. The BBC maintains a live tracker in which it
00:42:33shares
00:42:33maps demonstrating how territory had been gained and lost over the course of the Ukraine war. The month
00:42:38between February and March 2022 saw Russia make some impressive gains. It entered Ukraine from three
00:42:44sides, rapidly taking over Sumy, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Kherson. It also managed to gain limited control
00:42:50over areas just outside of Kyiv, leading many to think that it would only be a matter of time until
00:42:55it pushed into the city, took it and then took Ukraine. Its strategy seemed sound too. In addition
00:43:01to surrounding Ukraine with soldiers, Russia had put intelligence operatives on the ground and sent in
00:43:06many of its best troops. It aimed to secure key government areas while cutting off Ukraine's ability to
00:43:11counter the initial offensive by taking out some of its airports. This plan culminated in the capture
00:43:15of Antonov airport which is in the town of Hostomel and just over six miles away from the city of
00:43:20Kyiv.
00:43:21Then it all started to go downhill for Putin. The battle of Antonov airport represented both the
00:43:26closest that Putin got to achieving his objective of taking Kyiv and a key turning point that showed him
00:43:31that his special military operation wasn't going to be the quick smash and grab he thought it would be.
00:43:36Though much of the rest of the world had ignored his months of military build-up outside Ukraine,
00:43:40perhaps naively thinking that Putin wouldn't actually invade another country, Ukraine had been paying
00:43:45attention. Yes, its military wasn't as strong as Russia's, it certainly had fewer men and the bulk
00:43:50of its equipment was Soviet-era and very well known to the forces that would be invading, but it wasn't
00:43:55going to go down without a fight. Where Putin may have expected resistance from some Ukrainian security
00:44:00forces, he didn't expect Ukraine to mount an organized military defense that would allow it to retake any
00:44:06of the territory that Russia had gained during that initial month, but that's precisely what happened.
00:44:10The battle of Antonov airport raged for two months, following Russia's seemingly successful capture of
00:44:15the location. Finally, on April 2nd, 2022, Business Insider published satellite images showing that
00:44:21Russian troops had fully withdrawn from the airport. It was later revealed that Putin had lost two
00:44:26battalions of troops in his attempts to maintain the position, all of which was for naught,
00:44:30as Ukraine valiantly fought back. As for the images, they showed the abandoned remains of a
00:44:35series of defensive berms the Russian soldiers had dug around the airport. They also showed that the
00:44:39convoy of artillery, armored vehicles and Russian troops that had been moving around the airfield on
00:44:44February 24th were gone. Antonov airport was back in Ukrainian hands, and Putin would soon find out
00:44:50that he faced a much bigger threat than he'd anticipated from Ukraine. Another sign that the
00:44:54invasion wasn't going to plan came just before Ukraine retook Antonov airport. About a week into
00:45:00his invasion, Putin dispatched a 40-mile-long mechanized column to aid his soldiers in mounting
00:45:05a full offensive on Kyiv. This enormous convoy was caught in satellite images published by Reuters,
00:45:11with hundreds of vehicles stretching along a road near Ivankiv. Through these images,
00:45:15we see just how much complacency had crept into the Russian approach. Putin didn't believe Russia
00:45:20would face much resistance. He was so confident in this belief that this massive convoy was dispatched
00:45:26on the most direct route into Ukraine. The problem was that the most direct point also offered Ukraine's
00:45:31forces plenty of spots to launch ambushes, from which the 40-mile convoy would be unable to escape
00:45:36as no alternate routes stretched away from the main route. That complacency would prove the convoy's
00:45:41undoing. Toward the end of March 2022, The Guardian released new video footage, including satellite imagery,
00:45:47that demonstrated how badly Putin had miscalculated with this convoy. It pointed out that the convoy had
00:45:53been ground to a halt by a series of daring nighttime raids conducted by a team of just 30
00:45:59Ukrainian special forces operatives using drones to strike. Those operatives rode on quad bikes to reach
00:46:05the head and the tail of the convoy, launching drones capable of dropping 3.3-pound bombs when they got
00:46:10into position to destroy the lead and tailing vehicles. The middle of the convoy turned into one giant,
00:46:1640-mile-long sitting duck, as the unit's commander, Lieutenant Colonel Yaroslav Honchar, later revealed.
00:46:22This one little unit in the night destroyed two or three vehicles at the head of this convoy,
00:46:26and after that, it was stuck. They stayed there two more nights and destroyed many vehicles.
00:46:31That same assault team later launched an attack on the main Russian depot supplying the convoy,
00:46:36leaving the Russians stuck without oil, heat, gas, or bombs, claimed Honchar. The convoy had been routed,
00:46:42and with it, the final nail was pounded into Putin's smash-and-grab approach.
00:46:47He'd lost Antonov airport and was being repelled from Kyiv, compounding his misery. The convoy he'd
00:46:52sent to complete the final push into Ukraine's capital was halted long before it got to its
00:46:57intended location. Putin had failed to achieve his initial military objective, so he was forced to
00:47:02switch focus. Russia's forces withdrew from the areas around Kyiv in the face of Ukraine's defenses.
00:47:07The city wouldn't be taken. So Putin came up with a new objective. Focus on Ukraine's east and south,
00:47:13with the goal of taking as much of the country as possible from which to launch an even stronger
00:47:17assault on Kyiv. This strategy was already partially in place. For instance, Mariupol,
00:47:22which is in south Ukraine, had been under siege since the first day of the war and would eventually
00:47:27fall just a few months later. Still, Putin needed to build his forces in this region to follow through
00:47:32his new goal. Space.com released satellite images in April of 2022 that showed even higher deployment
00:47:38of troops, vehicles, and tents to the west of the Salotti military base in Russia. Those newly
00:47:43deployed troops would very soon find their way into Ukraine, launching a renewed offensive that
00:47:48aimed to take territory to the east and south. We fast-forward to May 2022 and the Battle of Bakhmut.
00:47:53The city, which sits around 13 miles from Luhansk, was a clear target for Russia's forces once the
00:47:59front lines of the war were established following the failure of Russia's initial attempts to take
00:48:03Kyiv. It lies in the Donbass region, a vast tract of industrial land with Putin's new goal seeming
00:48:09to be to cut off Ukraine's access to its own industry to hamper its war effort. The Battle of
00:48:14Bakhmut raged throughout the summer of 2022, with satellite imagery showing the sheer scale of the
00:48:19devastation wrought on the city. Pictures published by Radio Free Europe, RFE, show an overview of the
00:48:25city on May 8th, 2022, compared to what it looked like around a year later, with the latter pictures
00:48:30showing the results of Russia's constant bombardment. Plumes of smoke are seen emanating into the sky,
00:48:35with the burnt-out husks of buildings visible, even via satellite imagery.
00:48:39RFE also offers zoomed-in shots of School No. 12 and several apartment buildings in Bakhmut on May 8th.
00:48:46By May 15th, 2023, those buildings along with the plant life that surrounded them are completely
00:48:51destroyed, showing a smoking wreckage of a once-thriving city. Other images show the Bakhmut
00:48:56theatre lying in ruins, another victim of Russia's shelling and bombing campaigns, along with the
00:49:01destroyed remains of university buildings and a radio tower that used to be in the city. The images
00:49:06alone seem to paint a picture of a clear Russian victory. Bakhmut is obliterated, with its buildings
00:49:12being literal shells of their former selves. This view is further supported by the fact that Russia
00:49:17eventually came out on top. The problem? It took an entire year for Russia to claim near-total
00:49:22control of Bakhmut, meaning fighting went on until May 20th, 2023. Russian losses were extensive.
00:49:29The head of the Russian Private Army, Wagner, says that his forces lost around 20,000 soldiers
00:49:34attempting to secure Bakhmut, with the final tally, when accounting for the Russian military landing
00:49:39somewhere closer to 100,000. The Battle of Bakhmut had been one of attrition, with Putin's strategy of
00:49:44taking cities via shock and awe once again failing to produce results. The scenes in the city were
00:49:50described as being akin to the fighting that took place during World War I, with Putin being reduced
00:49:54to simply throw more and more resources at Bakhmut until it finally broke. Russia experienced heavy
00:50:00casualties. Worse yet for Putin, Bakhmut became something of a symbol for Ukraine. The fact that
00:50:05it had taken Russia an entire year to finally take the city created a sort of psychological symbolism
00:50:11through which Ukraine proved that it could hold Russia at bay for extended periods while costing
00:50:15Putin enormous amounts of manpower and equipment. And as Ukraine held Russia in place, it was taking
00:50:20advantage of Operation Interflex, a British-led program that ultimately trained 40,000 Ukrainian
00:50:27military personnel. The Battle of Bakhmut is not the only battle that steeled Ukraine's resolve in the
00:50:32early months of the war. Earlier, we mentioned that Russia had managed to take Mariupol during the
00:50:36early months. Like with Bakhmut, satellite imagery shows the sheer scale of the destruction caused by
00:50:42Russian bombing and shelling. The Guardian published images in April 2023, one of which shows a before
00:50:47and after of Mariupol town center lying in ruins. Homes have become uninhabitable and key routes into the
00:50:53city were closed off during the fighting. Then there are the images of Mariupol's drama theater.
00:50:59Several weeks into the 80-day siege of Mariupol, over a thousand residents had taken shelter in the
00:51:04theater's basement as they attempted to escape the shelling. Those residents made it clear to Russia
00:51:09that the building contained civilians. They spelled out the word DETI, meaning children,
00:51:14in giant letters on the building's front. On March 16, 2022, at 10 a.m., Russia bombed the
00:51:19Mariupol drama theater. It's believed that 1,200 people were inside at the time, with the number who
00:51:25died ranging between 300 and 600, depending on the source. Amnesty International said that the bombing was
00:51:31a clear war crime, with Russia seemingly not caring. It demolished the building's remains
00:51:36in December 2022. Again, the Guardian reveals satellite images of the theater. In 2021,
00:51:42it lay at the heart of Mariupol, an impressive building surrounded by lush green trees. Just two
00:51:47years later, it was yet another husk, with most of the trees gone and the building itself no longer in
00:51:52sight. Perhaps you're wondering how this event showcases Putin's strategic failures. The siege of
00:51:58Mariupol, like the Battle of Bakhmut, likewise became symbolic. The fact that it took Russia
00:52:02more than 80 days to take the city when it was at the height of its powers in the early
00:52:06days of the
00:52:07war, steeled Ukrainian resolve. It also painted Russia as the clear villain. Bombing a theater
00:52:12containing children likely helped many of Ukraine's future partners decide to supply more weaponry.
00:52:17So Mariupol represented another tactical misstep for Putin. Not only should his forces have never
00:52:22needed to spend over 80 days taking a city. Remember, this was still in the period where he was trying
00:52:27to smash and grab, but he destroyed any credibility he had in the international community in the
00:52:32process. We then move on to the liberation of Kharkiv. Russia had taken this major Ukrainian city
00:52:37within a month of the war starting, as demonstrated by the BBC and its map of the territory that Russia
00:52:43controlled in March 2022. That control didn't last. Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in Kharkiv in
00:52:49September 2022 that saw it retake the city. By November, Ukraine had taken the city back
00:52:54entirely, along with Sumy and the majority of the northern region that Russia controlled following
00:52:59its initial attack. Universe Magazine published satellite images of the aftermath of Russia's
00:53:04initial attack on Kharkiv. Interestingly, those photographs show a Kharkiv that, while clearly
00:53:08damaged by missile strikes, hasn't been decimated to the same extent as Bakhmut and Mariupol.
00:53:13The city's regional state administration building in Freedom Square is destroyed, though the buildings
00:53:18around it are still standing. Kharkiv's main police department building also lies in ruins,
00:53:23both images showing Putin's early strategy of entering cities and taking out their main
00:53:27administrative, government and public service facilities. The Universe Magazine images go on
00:53:32to show the Faculty of Economics at the Kharkiv National University in ruins, along with damage to
00:53:37the Kharkiv National University of Civil Engineering. There are also images of destroyed houses, though again,
00:53:43not the complete raising seen in other Ukrainian cities. In May 2024, Putin claimed that Russia was
00:53:50not seeking to capture Kharkiv again. Instead, he wanted to create a security zone around the city
00:53:54to protect Russian border regions close to it. As you'll soon find out, those efforts failed just as
00:53:59badly as his initial attempts to take and secure Kharkiv. So far, we've mostly covered Putin's faltering
00:54:05initial efforts in Ukraine, the failed shock and awe campaign through which he failed to take Kyiv,
00:54:10the fighting in Bakhmut and Mariupol that led to massive losses of Russian lives and the stealing
00:54:15of Ukraine's resolve, even if Russia eventually came out on top. May 2023 introduces Ukraine's
00:54:21preparations for a counteroffensive. In December 2023, Reuters published a series of maps that acted
00:54:27as a post-mortem for that counteroffensive. The first demonstrates that Ukraine split its attack
00:54:31across the entire front line. A portion of Ukrainian troops attempted to retake Bakhmut,
00:54:36with another portion heading toward Mariupol. However, the main offensive was via the south
00:54:41and into Badyansk, with the goal being to sever the connection between Crimea and the Russian mainland.
00:54:46This splitting represented a tactical error on Ukraine's part, but worse yet for Ukraine was
00:54:50the fact that its plans were highly publicized, which gave Russia all the time it needed to start
00:54:55building defenses. Satellite images published by the BBC in May 2023 show that these defenses started
00:55:01going up as early as March 2023. One image of Crimea's west coast shows the building of a bunker,
00:55:07dragon's teeth blocks of concrete lining the beach, and a trench network reminiscent of World War I.
00:55:13Images captured of Tokmak show Russia forming two lines of defense ahead of the town,
00:55:17both containing trenches through which Ukraine would be forced to break. Artillery positions,
00:55:22more dragon's teeth, and an anti-tank ditch are seen in other satellite images,
00:55:26such as those on the E-105 highway and images from Mariupol. Giving Russia time to form those
00:55:31defenses would ultimately prove costly to Ukraine. Coming back to the Reuters maps,
00:55:35it's clear that the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which lasted for around six months, was unsuccessful.
00:55:40The final map from the article shows that Ukraine only managed to advance around 4.6 miles during the
00:55:46offensive, with further gains being made impossible by Russia's layered fortification lines,
00:55:50mines, land mines, and drone surveillance. For the first time in the Ukraine war, Putin had a
00:55:55tactical victory he could claim. Ukraine had been repelled, and Russia was able to keep its territory
00:56:00to the south as well as back mutt, while also maintaining its Crimean supply lines. Russia may
00:56:05have been on the back foot, a situation it never believed it would be in at the beginning of the
00:56:09war, but Putin's joy would be short-lived. If a full counteroffensive couldn't cut off the Crimean link,
00:56:15Ukraine would take another approach. That approach would be two-fold, damaging the Kerch
00:56:19Strait bridge that links Crimea to the Ukrainian mainland, and taking out as much of Russia's dreaded
00:56:24Black Sea fleet as possible. In August 2023, Newsweek published satellite images showing the
00:56:30results of one of several attacks on the Kerch Strait bridge. The images show damage caused to
00:56:34part of the bridge's stretch of railway in July 2023, the result of a pair of early morning explosions
00:56:40that were likely caused by drone attacks. The images also show part of the bridge's structure
00:56:45being destroyed, as well as the shifting of one part by about 3.2 feet. Such attacks on
00:56:50the Kerch bridge wouldn't put it completely out of commission. The bridge features a form
00:56:54of compartmentalized construction that enables destroyed parts to be rebuilt fairly quickly.
00:56:59However, the bridge could be made less useful through constant attacks that would force costly
00:57:03repairs and lead Russia to believing that using the bridge was far more effort than it was worth.
00:57:08That's precisely what the attacks showcased in these satellite images achieved. Russia stopped trying to use
00:57:13the Kerch Strait bridge to supply troops on the front lines by May 2024. One route out of Crimea was
00:57:19now cut off, representing another strategic failure for Putin given that he was relying on that annexed
00:57:24territory to keep his soldiers supplied. But Ukraine wasn't done. In addition to taking out the Kerch
00:57:29Strait bridge, it switched its focus to Russian ships in the Black Sea both during and following its
00:57:34failed counteroffensive. Satellite images started emerging showing that Ukraine was striking Russian
00:57:39ships in the port of Sevastopol. Universe Magazine published several in March 2024, showing the
00:57:45aftermath of a strike on a communications center in Crimea that month. The building is still standing,
00:57:50but the roof has completely collapsed. Other images show the Russian ships Yamal, Ivan Kurs and Azov.
00:57:56At the time, conflicting media reports suggested they had been sunk or damaged by missile or drone
00:58:00strikes. The satellite images show that all still appear to be above the water, but there is clear
00:58:05evidence of an attack. The Ivan Kurs also appears to have sustained damage to its stern. Though
00:58:10inconclusive, these images show Ukraine using the approach of trying to take out Russian ships to
00:58:14destroy another link to Crimea, and it's worked. June 2024 saw Yahoo News publish satellite images
00:58:21showing that many of Russia's ships have withdrawn from their main Sevastopol base and into Feodosia and
00:58:26Novartisysk. Further images from Defense One show that Russia has also built defensive buoys in the
00:58:31harbor at Sevastopol, likely to prevent Ukrainian drone ships from reaching its main fleet. This was
00:58:37yet another defensive measure into which Putin had been forced. And worse yet for Russia's leader,
00:58:42withdrawing ships from Sevastopol means he can't use those ships to attack Ukraine via the Black Sea.
00:58:47Another military objective is lost, with supplies to Putin's troops to the south dwindling,
00:58:51thanks to Crimea being turned into something close to a non-factor by Ukraine. Still, at least Putin
00:58:56could console himself with the fact that Ukraine hadn't entered Russian territory
00:59:00for all his strategic failings and the thousands of men he'd lost, Russia itself wasn't under attack.
00:59:05That was until August 2024. On August 6, 2024, Ukraine launched a daring raid into the Kursk Oblast.
00:59:13The initial raid is believed to involve just 300 Ukrainian soldiers, backed by around a dozen
00:59:17tanks and some armored vehicles, breaking through Russian border controls to enter Kursk. Since then,
00:59:23Ukraine has expanded its control in Kursk, taking dozens of small villages and settlements,
00:59:27while pouring more and more troops into the region. Satellite imagery, published by NBC News,
00:59:32highlights the extent of Putin's most recent strategic humiliation. One image shows the bridge
00:59:37that crosses the same river, near the town of Glushkovo. That bridge would prove vital for Putin,
00:59:42as he tries to transport soldiers into Kursk to repel the Ukrainian invaders. It's now also in tatters.
00:59:48A satellite image from August 17, 2024, shows a huge chunk of the bridge missing.
00:59:52There are also images of an oil depot near Proletarsk that is ablaze. Regional Governor
00:59:58Vasily Golubev blamed the fire on falling drone debris caused by Russia shooting Ukrainian drones
01:00:03out of the sky in Kursk. The truth of that statement is yet to be verified, but what's clear is
01:00:08that the
01:00:08oil depot is slowly being consumed by flames. A satellite image shows huge billowing clouds of black smoke
01:00:14emanating from the depot. Other pictures published by NBC News show the destruction of a harbor at Kavkaz
01:00:20port and what appears to be burnt-out swathes of land near Maranovka Air Base. Ukraine is now
01:00:25believed to have advanced up to 18 miles into Kursk, as shown by this BBC map, and Putin must
01:00:30now face up to the consequences of his repeated failures to achieve his military objectives.
01:00:35This story told in satellite images shows a Russian military that had brought devastation
01:00:40to several Ukrainian cities, but also one that's been forced onto the defensive, made to retreat,
01:00:45and is now facing the prospect of fighting Ukraine on its own soil. A severe failure for a special
01:00:51military operation that was supposed to take Kyiv in a matter of weeks. The only question now is what
01:00:56happens next? Share your answers in the comments below and thank you for watching the video. Now go
01:01:01and check out how Putin miscalculated so badly three big mistakes or click this other video instead.
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