00:00Ukraine is fighting on three fronts. On the battlefield, Russia continues to press its
00:05advantage, while Ukraine is increasingly taking the war deep into Russian territory.
00:10Diplomatically, there's a fresh U.S. effort to revive peace talks. And economically,
00:16Ukraine faces another enormous challenge, keeping the country running. Joining me now is Timofi
00:22Milovanov, a former Ukrainian minister of economic development, trade and agriculture,
00:26and now president of the Kiev School of Economics. Good morning, sir.
00:31Good morning.
00:32So let us start with the battlefield. Is Ukraine holding the line, losing ground or beginning to
00:40regain the initiative?
00:43So it's still losing on average this year, but at very, very small, really minimal rate. And for
00:52example, if you do a calculation, just, you know, back of the envelope calculation, how much time
00:58Russia would need to achieve its objectives in Donbass, that would be four and a half years,
01:04maybe up to 10 years if we take the last months, the summer months rate of advance. So yeah,
01:11de facto, the front line is stale.
01:15U.S. envoys have been in Moscow in Kiev, but there has been no breakthrough. Are these serious
01:23peace negotiations or simply another round of diplomatic positioning?
01:29There are serious attempts at starting negotiations. So that's exactly what it is. There are no
01:34negotiations yet. The offer, what we hear, again, I don't have direct access to. This is a very tight
01:41inner circle for obvious reasons. But, you know, what actually Americans are saying, American sources
01:46to us, to me, to our school are saying, and some of Ukrainian sources are saying that the Russian
01:52position has not really changed since the February talks. That means limiting army of Ukraine,
02:00Ukraine, giving up more unoccupied territory and recognizing legally the occupied territories as
02:09Russian. Practically, all of these demands are not feasible because they would contradict
02:15a constitution that would take years for Ukraine even to attempt to do that, plus committing people
02:21in unoccupied territories to Russian rule. That's a travesty, and no, no Ukrainian will ever
02:29accept that. So, you know, nothing has changed, but there are attempts to establish a process. You
02:34know, there is a discussion about maybe a trilateral meeting, another round. This is a development,
02:40but a very limited one. All right. When you look at Ukraine today, after years of war, are you more
02:48optimistic or more worried than you were a year ago? You have 30 seconds.
02:54Both. I am pessimistic or worried that the war will take a long time, but I'm optimistic that
03:00Ukraine will hold. It's ready for a prolonged war, even though it will be very, very costly on people.
03:06All right. Timothy Milovano, former Ukrainian economy minister, thank you so much for coming on the show
03:12this morning.
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