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00:04Hello, welcome to Copper Independent, the independence football podcast. I'm Lawrence
00:08Osler and I'm joined by fellow independent writers Miguel Delaney. Hi Migs. Hello. And
00:13Richard Jolly. Hello, Rich. Hello. And today we are discussing this season's Champions League.
00:19It is back, possibly a bit too soon for my liking, but it's back. We are going to look
00:23at who might win it, teams, fixtures to watch in the league phase, and how the Premier League's
00:29increasing financial muscle impacts the tournament, or perhaps doesn't. We'll get onto that a bit
00:34later. We'll also make some predictions at who will reach semifinals and potentially win the
00:39tournament. Guys, I've just spent the last 10 minutes thinking about you as Champions League
00:45teams. Miguel, I've come up with you as Deportivo La Coruña 2004 and Rich, AC Milan 1990. Rich,
00:56experienced, ruthless, sophisticated, and Miguel, sort of fearless and attacking. Quite entertaining.
01:04Didn't actually win it. No, yeah, didn't win anything. Didn't get the final. Waste of time
01:09in the end, but great memories. Well, happy with that. Knocked out in quite a dull way by
01:15Mourinho's Porto, I think. Yeah. I'm very happy. I mean, that AC Milan team's one of the greatest
01:21teams in history. Yes. I'm not sure what I've done to deserve that. That's how I think about
01:25you, Rich. Fine. No more comments. We'll move on. The Champions League league phase. I still think
01:36there's a terrible name for it. Can anyone have come up with something slightly better? Yeah. The
01:40Champions League. I still call it the group phase. Yeah, the group stage. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I think
01:45that's fine. They could have, I sort of feel like they could have done something quite American,
01:48like the main event or, I don't know, the mega. What do they call it, American? I suppose
01:53the regular season. Well, yeah, I suppose so. Yeah, actually, that's quite dull, isn't
01:58it? But that's sort of like, I've done a piece this morning for The Independent on Tuesday
02:03in which I sort of refer to wallpaper football. There is just a little bit, I mean, look, it's
02:09wallpaper that is nice to look at. And every time you look at it, there's something new
02:12to catch your eye. The organisers or those who do the logistics and kind of incorporate
02:17all the different systems and formulas that they test, they're in a bit of an invidious
02:21position because they have to try and adapt around what European football is. And like,
02:25so like, you know, obviously the ideal here would be a group stage that is like the late
02:2990s or early 2000s where most of the games, even a game against PSV Eindhoven or Dynamo Kiev
02:36for an English team feels quite exacting. That's pretty much impossible in the modern era.
02:41So they have to work around that. But it does mean that, like, there's no sense of
02:47re-event of them. And even the kind of the big fixtures there are, there are a lot because
02:52that's the point of the system. They're kind of just things that happen. And like they've
02:57sort of, like regular seasons almost, because they've sort of turned it into as if it's just
03:02a normal league, if you know what I mean. Like you don't necessarily think about, well,
03:07I've got to be around for that one in mid-October. Because it doesn't really matter that much.
03:13Well, it's also, yeah, that's the thing, isn't it? It's the lack of jeopardy. I mean,
03:16it's a regular league, but there isn't, the winner is irrelevant. You know, you have to
03:19finish in the top eight. And if you don't, it's probably fine if you're a good team anyway.
03:23You know, obviously PSG won it finishing, what, in the 20th or whatever they finished?
03:27PSG, I mean, I was looking at this yesterday. I was a little bit surprised by how high it was
03:30in the end. But obviously they went in needing results. They didn't finish top
03:33eight. But they did finish 11th and 15th. Right, okay. But again, that slightly devalues
03:39the point of finishing in the top eight. I slightly disagree with that. I'd say that
03:44arguably PSG are sort of a force of their own and maybe they're the only team that can win it
03:50coming 15th and 11th. And certainly I would say a Premier League team to win it, just because
03:55the workload they have would very much want that top eight finish just for those two extra
04:00midweeks off. And if you look last season, with the way the draw is done these days,
04:05with the top two finishes in the league phase being kept apart, Arsenal knew they could not
04:11face Bayern Munich until the final. And Arsenal's path through the knockout phase was reasonably
04:18friendly, I think you would say. And so if you finish high up often enough, you will get
04:23your reward. I mean, go back a year earlier and Arna Slott was quite fond of mentioning how
04:29unlucky Liverpool were for winning the actual group stage and then drawing PSG in the last
04:3416. But as a general rule, as I say, if you finish high up often enough, you will get a
04:40benefit from it. And if you finish low down often enough, unless you are PSG, you probably
04:46will suffer from it. And to use an example as to why a top eight finish really does matter
04:52for most teams. Last season, Inter Milan won their first four group games. At that point looked well
04:59on course for a top eight finish. The fixture list was really quite backloaded. And so they struggled
05:05in the next four, just missed out on the top eight. Drew Boda glimped, got knocked out, didn't even reach
05:12the last 16. Whereas for a long period of time, you think, well, they'll be straight into the last
05:1616 as the team who's finished fifth or sixth. So Rich, do you like this format?
05:21I like elements of it. I came into it sceptical about some things with an open mind on others.
05:29I didn't like the fact there were six English teams last year. I thought that was excessive,
05:34for instance. I mean, I still think five is a bit excessive, but I thought six was ridiculous.
05:39I found it's had some benefits that I maybe wasn't expecting and possibly in some cases weren't
05:45even intended by the organisers. Because as Miguel said, one of the reasons for it was,
05:51let's have more games. Let's have more Liverpool versus Real Madrid. Let's have more Bayern Munich
05:56versus Paris Saint-Germain. I think some of the unexpected benefits have actually come for some
06:03of the smaller clubs who were never going to win it. And we're never going to win it under any
06:08other
06:08way. But I think it's been better for them. And an example I would use a couple of years ago,
06:13I was at the last group game, where it was Manchester City against Club Brugge. And at
06:19halftime, City were behind in the game and going out. They turned around to win the game. City get
06:24through. But Club Brugge also get through in 24th place out of 24. Now, their fans and their players
06:32were celebrating at the end, because that's a big achievement for them. In the old group phase,
06:36draw Club Brugge in the same group as two really big clubs. They're going out. Simple as that.
06:41This one, they can go through in 24th. And then having done that, they actually beat Atalanta in
06:47the next round. So they got through to the last 16. So I think some of the benefits have actually
06:52come for Club Brugge and for Bodo Glimps, even if the format was not actually designed for them at
06:57all. Similar to the World Cup in the sense that that format, although it lacked a bit of jeopardy,
07:02it did give a route to some maybe smaller nations to get into a knockout game that they never would
07:07have got two, you know, four, eight years before or whatever. But also what I'd say there, the World
07:12Cup, the part of the problem with the World Cup was you looked at the group stage, who got knocked
07:17out, who we'd expected to go through. Well, it was probably Uruguay and no one else. But I think if
07:23you look at the Champions League tables from the first two years, you've actually had some teams
07:28getting knocked out who I think most people would have expected to get through. So it has been more
07:34competitive in that respect. And I mean, last year, Napoli reigning champions of Italy, a team that if
07:40you'd said beforehand, where are Napoli going to finish? I think people might have said, well, perhaps
07:4410th, 12th, 14th, they came 30th and went out. Athletic Bilbao came 28th and went out. Marseille came
07:5225th, partly because the Benfica goalkeeper scored a goal. But those, I think, were all teams that we
07:57probably would have expected to be somewhere in that top 24. So in that respect, I think I found it
08:03a bit
08:03more interesting than I expected in terms of who doesn't even make that 24 team cut.
08:08Well, I think some of this points to kind of another issue that the Champions League has sort
08:13of forced, which is obviously, like the World Cup, it's just made the calendar so packed. And a real
08:21challenge for clubs, something they've got to consider a lot now, is how you weather it. So even
08:26like a team like Napoli, who should probably be better equipped than others, but there would have a few
08:31that suddenly just kind of get a bit of a jolt from having to navigate these kind of multiple
08:37demands. Same with Athletic. Athletic Bilbao just weren't able to go through two calendars of that
08:44size at once. And just on the Paris Saint-Germain point, the one side, I think, I sort of agree
08:51they're a force they're all, but the one side that could do what they do are maybe Bayern Munich.
08:55But Bayern Munich just won't finish 15th. Although I think in the first year, correct me if I'm wrong,
09:04in the first year, they were running it pretty close for top eight. But you do just look at Bayern
09:08and think they won't finish 15th, whereas PSG almost can and it doesn't matter.
09:14The draw might be the slightly mad thing. I don't know if you guys watched the draw, I'm sure you
09:19did,
09:19Miguel. Slightly sort of mad protracted event that probably doesn't need to be an event, like it could
09:25just be an email. I had a little look at Opta's analysis of the draw. They say, because I mean,
09:32one of the flaws is that teams have quite varying difficulties of eight fixtures. So Stuttgart have
09:38the easiest fixtures and Liverpool the easiest among the Premier League clubs. That's because both of them
09:42play Atletico and Inter from pot one. So essentially got the easiest big teams to play. And at the other
09:48end
09:48of the scale, Sabah from Azerbaijan, they have the toughest fixtures. They've got Arsenal,
09:54Bayern, Dortmund, Napoli, Villarreal. But they do at least get to play Man United. And then Man City
10:01have the toughest Premier League fixtures. So they play Barcelona, PSG, Porto Sporting, Napoli and
10:06Leipzig. Just one thing I would say on the wallpaper point is to say, like, the thing about it is,
10:11it's a bit like a league season. As I say, you don't necessarily go into it anticipating the
10:16big fixtures. Although you do that in the Premier League now. But it's almost like you get to the
10:19week. Oh, what's on? And like, to be fair, one thing I would say about it is good, interesting,
10:25entertaining, fun things do happen when it's on because basically it's loads of big football
10:30teams thrown together. Like it's still like...
10:33The goalkeeper scoring was quite a good example of that. Like it sort of just throws up something
10:37quite fun.
10:38Yeah. Like I wouldn't completely just do it down like that in that way. There's still a lot
10:43to it. It's just about... It's just a necessary navigation about other problems. And there's
10:47just the sense that what actually matters isn't coming until February. Although just on Richard's
10:52point as well about who qualifies, it is a bit like the World Cup in the sense that you
10:57have all these extra games and then suddenly you get to the last 16 and it's large, which
11:04is the kind of traditional kind of cut-off point from group to knockout stage. And you get
11:12maybe one surprise that we always had anyway. It's pretty much, you know, as expected.
11:18I disagree with that, actually. And I think one of the surprise good things with this new
11:23format has been that round of 24 because it's produced some upsets. And I've mentioned one
11:28last year, which was the Bodo Glimped Into Milan one. Another one last year was the Galatasaray
11:33Juventus one. I mean, that round of 24 has been absolutely brutal for Italian clubs because
11:38the year before Atalanta, AC Milan and Juventus all went out.
11:42But does that not speak more to Italian football strength now?
11:45I mean, it does to a certain extent, but you look at who they've gone out to. Inter Milan
11:51should still beat Bodo Glimped. Atalanta should still beat Club Brugge. AC Milan and Juventus
11:56went out to Dutch clubs. It was Feyenoord and PSV Eind.
11:59I don't know. When it's that wide, that does, for me, say something bigger.
12:03I mean, yes and no. But in terms of budget, in terms of the actual calibre of the players,
12:11the one that I think you could argue reflected maybe a shift in football economics was Juventus
12:17Galatasaray last year with the way Turkish clubs have started to spend. And you get players
12:22going from Serie A to Turkey. I mean, Victor Osman being a prime example. But I mean, there's
12:28no way that in terms of budget and talent and history and everything else, that Inter should
12:32be going out to Bodo Glimped. Or that even Atalanta, as a relatively small Italian club,
12:39should be going out to Club Brugge.
12:41Any fixtures that stand out to you guys from the list and the league phase? Anything that
12:46jumps off the page? I'm quite looking forward to seeing Como in action. Cesc Fabregas' Como.
12:52They play, do they play Man United? Am I right in saying that, Rich?
12:55They do, yeah.
12:55Yeah. Any other games that stand out to you guys?
12:58All of those involving Como to a degree. See, the thing is, you look at fixtures like,
13:03say, Villarreal-Napoli. That's something that could have a bit of intrigue to it because
13:08there's an element of competitiveness to it. But we sort of just don't know. And obviously,
13:13as we mentioned about the big clubs, I mean, what draws your attention to Bayern Arsenal or
13:18something like that. But I mean, from the evidence of previous seasons, it's mostly table setting.
13:26Like this is, as Rich has touched on, this has been kind of one of the ironies of the
13:28systems. They wanted more big games. But even UEFA have realised a little bit of an issue with
13:33these big games because they've had to introduce this rule where Madrid couldn't play at Anfield
13:38again because that's too much of the same thing, which is a bit of an issue.
13:45Did they rule out repeat fixtures from last season? Is that what you're saying?
13:49Yeah. Liverpool could play at Real Madrid, but Madrid couldn't go to Anfield again.
13:54Right. Okay.
13:54Yeah. Well, they've had it two years in a row. So it was the case of saying they can't have
13:58it
13:58three years in a row because Liverpool have beaten Real at home two years in a row. Yeah. I mean,
14:04in terms of the fixtures, some of the ones that, there's a lot that stand out and a lot that
14:09are
14:09potentially good. And obviously over eight rounds of fixtures and 36 teams, you could name far too
14:14many. So I just said, look at the second match day. There were several that caught my eye. And one
14:18of
14:19them is that Jose Mourinho is actually starting off at Real Madrid against two of his old clubs,
14:25Inter Milan first, Roma second. There's a big question. Is Jose still the Jose of old? I think
14:31most people would say no, including Miguel, but he would say, well, he hasn't had the chance to win
14:37the Champions League for 10 years or whatever. So I think that'll be interesting. There's Atletico
14:41Madrid against Manchester United, which I know you were, you noticed earlier, Lawrence, that
14:48Manchester United have somehow been put ahead of Atletico in terms of chances of winning this,
14:53which doesn't seem to make a great deal of sense to me when Atletico were in the semi-final last
14:57year.
14:58And there are quite a lot of doubts about them. And another one in the second round that looks
15:03really good to me is Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, because you could argue City were
15:07one of the reasons for changing the format in that they always seem to be in these really
15:12formulaic groups in the 14 groups. They haven't got to grips with the new group. The first time
15:19they came 22nd. Even last time around, they ended up in the top eight, but they took a really weird
15:25path to doing it. They lost at home to Bayer Leverkusen and they lost to Bodo Glimt. They won
15:31away at the Bernabeu in the process. But in the last two years, they've gone out in the last 24
15:36and gone out in the last 16. Obviously, Pep Guardiola is gone now. Enzo Moresca is here.
15:42Maybe Paris Saint-Germain won't actually... It doesn't matter to them if they win a group game or not.
15:47But I think that one would be a big test to see where Manchester City are at, because I think
15:51I don't see this year a City being in the real band of top tier of favourites. I put them
15:57in the
15:58second tier, the teams who need everything to go right for them to win it.
16:01Well, it is probably what you're just kind of recognising that, acknowledging it. I mean,
16:06there's a bit of a historic landmark here, and it's quite a coincidence that Mourinho returns
16:11to the top level in the same year that... and at Real Madrid, because his great rival from
16:18that previous Real Madrid period, Pep Guardiola, isn't in the Champions League for the first
16:22time since 2013. Like, that is... that's quite... you know, it's quite a vacuum, given what he's
16:30been... given how much the kind of the storyline of Guardiola has dominated so much the Champions
16:34League over that period, how much... how much he's conditioned the entire tactical framework
16:39of the competition. With City, though, I do just wonder... I mean, they have spent a lot.
16:47It's been a huge turnover of the team. Look, I'm sure they'd point to how the net spend is
16:52relatively low. But obviously, the wage bill remains one of the highest in football, which
16:57is kind of one of the biggest determinant factors here. And I do just wonder, though, is there
17:01an element as well of... look, Muresk is obviously nowhere near as good a coach as Guardiola, and
17:08this is his own first season in the Champions League. But is there a little bit of an element
17:13of what has happened before with previous kinds of long-serving coaches who were kind of very
17:19influential, like Rina Smeichels at Ajax in the 70s, even Richard Jolly's Saki in Milan when
17:26he left in 1991? Now, it's a bit of a stretch to say that Capello would allow a release. But
17:33just a different manager, after so long under quite an intense figure, like Mikael's Saki,
17:38a switch to a different manager suddenly allowed a bit of a release, which actually worked for
17:41them in Europe. I mean, it took Milan under three years to win it, but they always win
17:46a 4-0 over Barcelona. But they were pretty much Europe's top team with that period. Ajax
17:52immediately went and won two more. And that can occasionally happen. I think that's one
17:57kind of potential factor this season.
18:00I mean, you could say it could, but the other argument is that it's just such a different
18:04team that it's not the same players getting the release. It's players who either came in
18:09this summer who only had six months or a year with Guardiola to begin with.
18:13Yeah, yeah. But also, I can kind of factor into the air around the team as well. But yeah,
18:18Andy, we're kind of one of a few ways we're into the unknown here. In fact, I don't think
18:24like, I don't think it's that wide a field of potential champions. I'd say the tournament
18:28might prove us wrong, as it often does. But this feels among the smallest of potential
18:34winners in years, I would say.
18:35Yeah, I think you can often start off saying there's about eight potential winners. And
18:40this year I'd reduce it to five. Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain
18:45and Arsenal. I wouldn't have Madrid in there. Well, I mean, I would probably, I'd probably
18:50have them in there more if they had a different manager. Yeah, yeah. But I do think with Real
18:55Madrid, maybe you're just banking on some institutional history of Real and think things like that
19:02and just say maybe they could win it on those grounds.
19:04Yeah. Good players. Good players as well.
19:06Good players. They could do a Madrid. But I think that's, look, for all we think about,
19:12they always do it in Madrid. I mean, they've gone out early, you know, the past two seasons.
19:17And look, I don't rule out the capacities to surprise. I think if you're just kind of judging
19:22it logically and kind of the makeup of the team, the manager, I think they look a fair
19:28bit off the three or four that I would have above them.
19:31To win it, is it necessary, a little bit like how Arteta won the Premier League where
19:35they said gradually built and built, finished second, what, three years in a row and then
19:39eventually got over the line? Do you think you kind of need to have either been in last
19:43year's final or semi-finals and had that little bit of battle-hardened exposure to the sharp
19:48end of the Champions League in order to then get over the line and win it? Is it such
19:51a kind of psychological step? Like, can Real Madrid go from almost nowhere? And I know
19:57some of their players, I say nowhere, you know, it's not that long ago that they won
19:59it. But can they go from there to just jump up to the top of the tree and win it?
20:03Or is
20:03it, or Arsenal, PSG and Bayern so sort of cemented at the top of the experiences
20:08they've had over the last couple of years that they will inevitably be in the final
20:11in some combination again?
20:13I wouldn't say Real are going from nowhere so much, but some of the others are. But if
20:18you look at the recent Champions, PSG were semi-finalists the year before in 2024, win
20:23it in 2025. Manchester City under Guardiola were semi-finalists the year before they won
20:28it. Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool were finalists the year before they won it. So that really
20:34counts against, I think that counts against Manchester City now actually, because so many
20:39of the treble team are gone. And then you've got a team that went out in the last 24 and
20:43the last 16. You know, Real Madrid have got closer than them. You can look at this current
20:48Liverpool team and say, last 16, last 8, they haven't been that close. The counter-argument
20:56is they were unlucky to face PSG both times. But to me, the two that then you could say
21:03possibly have that recent experience who, if everything goes right, Atletico got to the
21:09semis last year and Inter, whilst they did go out to Bodo Glimp last year, have been in
21:14two of the last four finals. So they've got some of that core. So does that position them
21:19to make a jump? But beyond that, I agree very much. You look at the ones who've been
21:24there, which means Arsenal, which means PSG, which means Bayern, and doesn't mean too many
21:30others.
21:30I'd have Barcelona up there as well. And it's funny, the Champions League probably, in this
21:38era, needs a strong Barcelona because so much of it is dictated by financial power. And
21:44Barcelona, one of the amazing things, on Champions League terms, they've been a bit of a
21:48basket case in the 11 years since they've last won it, bar that one season in 2019 where
21:54they looked like they were going to win it. And it ended up with their most humiliating
21:58collapse of all the 4-0 at Anfield. But they have been on an upward trajectory over the past
22:05few years. Obviously, they've got potentially this year's Ballon d'Or winner in Laminya Mal,
22:10maybe the best player in the world, certainly with one of the best talents. Flick has begun
22:15to impose an order. But obviously, one of the lines has been actually about his high
22:21line and how suddenly exposed Barcelona can be. Now, I know that gets a bit of...
22:25Sometimes, Lina, seeing discussion in Spanish media, there was often resistance to that idea
22:31that it's a cliche to point to Flick's high line. And then you watch one of their European
22:34games and they're repeatedly getting exposed there. But that is where the signing of Rodri
22:40is so transformative, I think, just because he's one of very few players in world football
22:45that just... He can swallow up so much of that. If you're playing a high line, he's pretty
22:52much perfect. Even if he can only play fewer games, the games that are going to really matter
22:58here are these big games in Europe. And that's where I think he can just solve so much for
23:04Barcelona and suddenly kind of, I would say, launch them into potential winners again.
23:09So I'd go for those four.
23:12Yeah, I mean, I think those four are my... They're my semi-finalists. And, you know,
23:16I've been trying to decide between Barcelona and PSG to win it, partly because I've basically
23:21just tipped everyone who won something last year to win exactly the same thing this year.
23:26And I don't want to do that. But with Miguel's point about Rodri, I mean, he, in a way,
23:30it could be this year's Marquinhos or this year's Usman Dembele, in that he doesn't have
23:34to play every single other game in other competitions. But that added freshness in the
23:40Champions League, and to have a, in Rodri's case, just such a big game player, that could
23:45be decisive.
23:47Marquinhos just makes me think of the new absurd UEFA award for, what is it, for sportsmanship,
23:53which he won, do you see this, for embracing Gabriel after the penalty shootout?
23:57I mean, that is really low-hanging fruit, isn't it?
24:00It's, if you saw one of your very good friends for your international team have, like,
24:04one of the worst moments of their life, you'd probably go over and say, are you okay with
24:08you?
24:08Yeah.
24:09But anyway, here's no...
24:10No. Do one.
24:12Do one.
24:12You loser.
24:15Remember?
24:16Gee, what a water.
24:18Oh, dear.
24:19Game's gone.
24:20Right, on that note, we will take a break, and when we come back, we'll discuss the impact
24:23of the Premier League's financial might, and we will make our predictions of who might
24:27win the Champions League.
24:30So, Miguel, the story of the summer, and maybe the past few summers, really, has been the
24:34Premier League's spending.
24:36Ipswich has spent more than the vast majority of Champions League clubs, just for one example.
24:41And yet, really, as we've discussed, there's probably only one Premier League team who genuinely
24:46looks like they might win the Champions League.
24:49I mean, maybe let's start there.
24:50I mean, why do we not feel, for all the money and might that the Premier League has, do we
24:55not feel the Premier League can just sort of take over the Champions League and hasn't
24:59done that yet?
25:00Well, I mean, this has obviously been a theme for the past few years.
25:03One of them is actually the very wealth that the Premier League works against it, in that
25:08it is more competitive than any other domestic league, certainly for the Champions League
25:13level sides.
25:13I mean, Barcelona, there was an interesting story in Spain over the weekend, even how
25:21Barcelona just cruised through Valencia 5-0.
25:24In a game, in a story game, it doesn't even really happen.
25:27I know it's only been five years since Manchester City went away to Villa and won 6-1 or whatever.
25:32But the Premier League last season had fewer thrashings than ever before.
25:36Very, very few, like four goals or more.
25:37I think it was only eight by the end.
25:39And that was obviously linked to the fact that there's just so much financial heft there.
25:43You can see it in the signings as a kind of mid-table team.
25:46So it does mean every week is more of a slog for the wealthiest English sides.
25:51And it's funny, there are a lot of wider politics here because a lot of the big clubs in Europe
25:55are now obsessed with the power of the Premier League, taking most of their players, even
25:59if they can still buy the stars.
26:01And the Super League was actually intended to be a bulwark against that.
26:04They didn't get that true.
26:05Now, this is an alternative, and often called an alternative Super League.
26:09I think there's also an element with the Premier League where it's now had so much money for
26:14so long that we're past a bit of a critical, you know, there's a bit of a critical mass
26:19of that money and that they spend so much that it doesn't have the same effect anymore.
26:23And I think that can be seen in actually some of the prices this summer, where it was basically
26:26just an internal Premier League market with prices going up and up and up and not necessarily
26:30being linked to the quality of the player in the same way.
26:32So it is just a different market to the rest of the game.
26:34There is a Premier League premium.
26:37And then also, I think maybe even that very, the very amount spent feeds into a turn-off.
26:43We were discussing this on last week's podcast.
26:45There's not much team building at the moment with a lot of the Premier League sides.
26:48In fact, the only one you could say that has conformed to traditional team building in
26:53that way are Arsenal, who are like, you know, one of the contenders.
26:57You could say maybe Manchester United, except they're going about it by a necessarily glacial
27:02pace because of their own adaptation to financial rules and they're going to long overspending.
27:07So like they did the attack last year, the midfield this year and the defence next year, by which
27:11point they'll probably have to go and do the attack again.
27:15So you're constantly rotating here.
27:17Senna Lomans will retire and they'll have to buy a new goalkeeper.
27:20Yeah, airy is in a team.
27:21But like Liverpool as well.
27:23I mean, just this, I mean, Liverpool maybe is a bit different because it feels like they've
27:26got half a team.
27:28I think we've possibly seen these kind of social media memes that kind of lay out where
27:32the best position of all their players, and most of them are either in the left wing
27:35or in the fence, with gaps all over.
27:38And that's in a season where Iriola, A, already needs kind of essentially two first 11s to
27:45play his best football because it's so intense, and B, himself is enduring the Champions League
27:49for the first time.
27:50But beyond that, like City are kind of an example of what we're talking about in the Premier
27:54League and just like Rich has already mentioned it, just this extreme turnover of players
27:59where I like spend, spend, spend, but it's not necessarily the most efficient.
28:04So I think there's a few reasons there, but the biggest being actually that the Champions
28:11League group stage itself, what the Champions League is, is almost kind of an unintended
28:16or maybe partly intended corrective to Premier League power.
28:20It's quite interesting when you look at the Premier League's fortunes in the Champions League
28:24last year, in that you've got these two contrasting top eights in the league slash group phase.
28:31The Premier League club's got five of the top eight finishes, and it was only Newcastle
28:36who didn't, and even then they weren't that far off.
28:39But when it came to the actual proper top eight of the quarterfinals, the Premier League clubs
28:44only had two of the top eight and only one of the last four.
28:47And I guess there's two or three reasons for that, and Miguel's talked about the financial
28:52power of the Premier League.
28:53But the actual other clubs who have the big turnovers are the ones who end up at the
28:58business stages, you know, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain.
29:04Atletico, you could say, punched above their weight last year, and there's always the chance
29:07someone will.
29:08And they can pay as big salaries as the Premier League, if not bigger.
29:12Real Madrid's turnover is actually bigger than that of any Premier League club at all.
29:16And then, so then you say, well, maybe how do Premier League clubs get these top eight
29:20in the group phase?
29:22And one of the reasons, and Tottenham finished fourth in a year that they finished fourth from
29:25bottom in the Premier League, Tottenham did actually have quite a nice fixture in last
29:30year, but Tottenham's resources are better than those of nearly everyone they face in
29:35that Champions League group phase.
29:37And so if they are beating teams who on average are coming about 18th or 20th in the group stage
29:44as they were, it's a bit different to then getting to the knockout phases and can they
29:49beat Atletico Madrid?
29:51Well, no, they couldn't.
29:53Liverpool last year had this, you know, really a pretty bad season in a lot of ways.
29:57They lost 20 games in all competitions.
29:59They had one absolutely shocking result in the Champions League group stage where they
30:04lost 4-1 at home to PSV.
30:06They also lost away to Galatasaray, but they won six other group stage games, which was enough
30:12to come third in that phase.
30:14Then when they get to the actual quarterfinals, they face PSG and get knocked out and get knocked
30:19out pretty convincingly.
30:21So I think you've got these kind of two tiers of Premier League involvement in the Champions
30:25League.
30:26Is this not also an issue of coaching though?
30:28Because in that period between sort of 20, what was it, 2018 and 2023, when a Premier League
30:35team is in the final every year, basically, except for 2020 when it's Bayern Munich versus
30:39PSG, and you've got Guardiola, Klopp, Tuchel as Premier League managers, and essentially
30:46Premier League has the best coaching in the world.
30:48And now it feels like the Premier League does not, and you've got Luis Enrique and Hansi
30:53Flick and, OK, we're not going to say Jose Mourinho in that category, but the best managers
30:58in the world generally are spread around other than perhaps Arteta.
31:01Is it not just a vacuum of world-class coaching, which is the Premier League's Achilles heel and
31:06is perhaps holding it back from more domination in Europe as it had done sort of a decade ago?
31:12I do think the dividing line is a change in format.
31:15I mean, like the Premier League still, well, certainly at the moment it's appointing all
31:19the most promising coaches.
31:21There's been a real brain drain there.
31:23Obviously, this has been linked to an era, like when it came up, say, when the Liverpool
31:27job is available or whatever, or even the City job, although they were kind of always
31:31going for Maresca, there's not suddenly as many, like compared to 10 years ago, there
31:37aren't as many outstanding candidates, like an absolute, I think it's a bit more fluid.
31:42And obviously Luis Enrique is in a position, even with Luis Enrique, like I always, I think
31:47this is a bit of a, like obviously he's brilliant and what Paris Saint-Germain do in terms of
31:52the way they play is actually quite distinctive, leaving aside all the kind of wider discussions
31:57about the club and the ownership and all that, but I think it's quite an interesting
32:01thought experiment to kind of imagine this Paris Saint-Germain squad just dropped into
32:05the Premier League, because suddenly they wouldn't be able to go through the situation,
32:09like they've had another slow start to the season, as they did last year.
32:13In the Premier League, that's potentially immediately very, very influential.
32:18Then you get into a situation where he can't do what they've done and kind of keep
32:22Kvarskjellia or Dembele on the bench for like so many minutes of the season.
32:27And then once you're into that situation and you get to February, March, well, you
32:31can't kind of take off in the way they have been because the players just have, you know,
32:34extra fatigue.
32:35There's so many more minutes on the clock and it's just such a completely different
32:39context to play in.
32:41I mean, that is one of the big things with the Premier League is can their teams peak
32:45in May?
32:46And the answer is no, basically.
32:50Firstly, because, you know, you've got to peak before May to get to the Champions League
32:54final, but secondly, that cumulative fatigue and it actually caught up with Newcastle last
32:59year.
32:59Not that they were ever going to be Champions League winners, but having that extra workload
33:03caught up with them and having that round of 24 round caught up with them, even though
33:08they walloped Carabag away in the first game.
33:11Eddie Howe picked what seemed a needlessly strong team for the second leg.
33:15And even then those extra minutes came at a cost.
33:18Tottenham, it was maybe a slightly different matter in that they had the relegation battle
33:22and they had Igor Tudor as well, but they almost needed to be knocked out of Europe.
33:27And if you look at the Premier League teams, you've got to Champions League finals in recent
33:31years.
33:32They are not in a condition to do what PSG did when they beat Inter 5-0 in Champions League
33:38final.
33:39You know, when Manchester City won the final, they were hanging on in the last 20 minutes.
33:43When Liverpool reached the 2022 final, yes, Thibaut Courtois had a really good game for
33:49Real Madrid, but that Liverpool team had peaked in April.
33:52They were playing incredibly in April.
33:54They needed the Champions League final to basically be in April.
33:57And you can almost say the same with the Liverpool team in 2019.
34:01That team peaked when they beat Barcelona 4-0 in the semi-final, not when they beat Tottenham
34:062-0 in the final.
34:07And so that kind of counts, that all counts against the Premier League teams at the real
34:12business end of the season.
34:13Even Arsenal last season, for all the kind of debate about the contrasting approach, I
34:19didn't actually think, until the penalty, PSG couldn't really get at them.
34:24But Arsenal were obviously in the back of what had been the kind of, the emotional ringer
34:28of kind of the first title in 21 or 22 years, you know, everything they've been through
34:33the previous few years, that, I mean, PSG are just not going to go through.
34:37And even, like, it's funny, like, about peaking in May, Guardiola, ever since he got the job
34:43at Barcelona, he became obsessed with that exact idea of being able to peak.
34:48He knew, obviously, with the way modern football was going, that players could only play at maximum
34:54at certain times of the season.
34:55And he tried to kind of condition it for, or literally condition it, because they drew
35:01up kind of training plans for this, for November, December, and then April, May.
35:05And it's why we saw some of, like, Barcelona's best displays, say, in May, like the 6-2 against
35:10Real Madrid.
35:112011 Champions League final.
35:13Yeah, 2011.
35:13Probably the...
35:14Yeah, yeah, exactly.
35:15The biggest, really, you'd say.
35:16And also the 5-0 against Barcelona, or against Real Madrid, which came in kind of November,
35:20December 2010.
35:22And that worked for a certain time, and you can see it in City's runs in the league as
35:26well, where they'd peak towards, I've got all these kind of late winning runs in the
35:30run-in.
35:31But then, obviously, once again, the collect...
35:34That, you're suddenly trying to imply that, or impose that, on a completely different league
35:40approach, with totally different rigours, and a different Premier League as well.
35:44Just on your point on Arsenal, Miguel, and their sort of, their peaking and troughing
35:49over time, I mean, we watched them on Sunday against Chelsea, and they were...
35:53The tempo was as high as I've seen at the Emirates in a long time.
35:56I just...
35:57I don't know about you, I can't necessarily imagine them being able to deliver that speed
36:02and pace and tempo of performance at the sharp end of the Champions League after, as we say,
36:06these sort of four competitions and everything that's about to come.
36:0960 games.
36:10I mean, one way is potentially to rotate players in the Champions League League phase, which,
36:14as we've said, is not huge jeopardy hanging around it.
36:18But, if you don't finish in the top eight, then you have two more fixtures to play.
36:22Speaking to a few staff around European clubs now, they almost make this calculation.
36:26Are you better off, basically, kind of taking it a bit easier in the group stage, in terms
36:31of kind of rotating more, and not always playing your best 11, at the risk of finishing lower
36:36down the table?
36:36But that does mean you're fresher for bigger games later on.
36:39Or, as you say, kind of, you know, maxing out right now, getting it done, and then, they'd
36:47say, hopefully, having a more forgiving run, but suddenly where you're feeling the effects
36:51of it more.
36:52And with Arsenal, yeah, I mean, like, that is predicated on, basically, Odegaard, Havertz,
36:57and Saka, staying fresh and fit, and it's dependent on how often Arteta uses him, it's dependent
37:03on the intensity of Arteta's training, and also, maybe, whether they sign a player in
37:09January, which, I think they probably will.
37:12What a left-winger, do you think?
37:13Yeah.
37:14I think with Arsenal, it's interesting that they've got this incredibly deep squad, but
37:18there are times with Arteta where it feels like there are some players he is not starting,
37:24and there are also some players who, I mean, it's very hard to leave someone like Declan
37:28Rice out, but can get overworked.
37:30So, can he actually manage to get a situation where, if Arsenal have 60 games in a season
37:36where, say, Bruno Gimaraes starts 40 of them, Martin Zubumendi starts 40 of them, Martin
37:41Odegaard starts 40 of them, and he picks the right 40 for each one, because that's
37:47some of the real challenge with squad rotation.
37:49It's not just a case of having a lot of really good players.
37:53I think, you know, we've seen it with people like Eberechi Eze last year, have times outside
37:57the team.
37:58Viktor Jokka, so far this season, has barely played, and a major disappointment to Lawrence
38:02and his Swedish fan club.
38:04So, you know, can they get that right?
38:07And in terms of what Miguel was saying, in terms of that kind of balancing act of, do
38:12you go full out for the Champions League group stage?
38:14Do you risk, do you rest players, have a couple of extra games?
38:18There was quite an interesting clip on the recent Manchester City documentary, where
38:22Kaldun Al Mubarak and Ferran Soriano were really annoyed with Guardiola for picking a
38:27reserve team against Bayer Leverkusen, who lost at home.
38:30And so it didn't seem part of their calculations at all that, don't worry, these players have
38:35got games, we can have two extra games.
38:37I think they were scarred by finishing so low in the previous year and going out straight
38:42away to Real Madrid.
38:43They very much wanted the top eight finish and those extra two midweeks off in February.
38:48Very good.
38:49On that note, shall we put forward our predictions then for, I'll ask for your semi-finalists
38:56first.
38:57Rich, who do you feel will reach the semi-finals and are there any surprises at the end of the
39:02Champions League for you?
39:04Probably not.
39:05And I think Miguel and I probably have the same four semi-finalists based on what we've
39:10said earlier.
39:11In no particular order, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain.
39:17Obviously, with the new format, the top two teams in the league phase will be kept apart
39:22until the final.
39:23So some of it might then depend upon the draw thereafter.
39:27And if someone else finishes lower down and gets put in the same phase of the same sector
39:33of the draw, which in a way helped Atletico Madrid last year, though they still had to
39:37beat Barcelona to reach the last four.
39:39I mean, in some ways, I think we might all like an open draw for the jeopardy that could
39:44produce.
39:44But on the other hand, that might produce a last 16 game of Paris Saint-Germain against
39:48Bayern Munich.
39:50So I think if someone else is to go a long way, it would depend in part on the draw.
39:55But yeah, I think it's possible.
39:58There's a second tier of four clubs who maybe if things go right for them could get to the
40:02semi-final.
40:03A lot of put Atletico in to Manchester City and Liverpool there.
40:07But it's hard to see them then winning a semi-final and a final against two of those top clubs.
40:12Well, there's been two seasons in a row now where we've had lopsided draws.
40:17And this is something that happens when you wait for seasons out, actually.
40:22They often change.
40:23Even before this, even the old system of 32 teams, there'd often be some years where basically
40:29it'd just be an open draw all the way through.
40:31Then some years where the quarter-finals are, it'll be decided.
40:34And I must say, I would always lean towards just an open draw every round, just for the
40:40sense of variety, even if it does make planning a bit more challenging.
40:44Because otherwise you can get things fixed in place.
40:47And I've never liked that.
40:48It's like the whole debate about kind of goal difference against the results against each
40:53other in the group stage.
40:54Results against each other locks things in place.
40:56And you want the sense of openness.
40:58And like, as kind of Rich has touched on there, if one side is lopsided, he doesn't think
41:04you can just open up a draw in a different way.
41:06And while you want surprises, you also want surprises of value, as in like the surprise
41:12teams to be kind of like the, to have a proper substance to them, you know, like a Dortmund
41:202012, 2013 or whatever.
41:21And I know, I realise that kind of the bracket is some way necessary to give more meaning
41:28to the group stage.
41:29They pretty much had to bring it in, or else you do get into a situation where teams go,
41:33well, what's the point?
41:35Especially when you look at kind of Liverpool's situation two years ago.
41:38That's just another convolution of the system.
41:42Yeah, but yeah, where are we on that?
41:44Is that what we're reduced to now, talking about brackets?
41:46Do we like your brackets or not?
41:47I am anti-bracket.
41:51I understand the logic of giving a team a reward for doing well in the group phase.
41:57And I mean, in terms of what we're talking about, having a second leg at home, you know,
42:02that 9th to 24th bracket, if you finish between 9th and 16th, you've got a second leg at home
42:08against the team who's finished 17th to 24th.
42:11So I do understand that, and I do quite like that.
42:14And I do think that enough teams, certainly lower down, are sufficiently evenly matched
42:22that over 180 minutes, the, in theory, lower-ranked team can upset the top-ranked team.
42:28But at the moment, as we said earlier, it feels like there are fewer potential winners
42:32than there have been for a while.
42:34All of this sort of feeds into a little bit of a kind of a resistance I've got now to
42:39the idea of Paris Saint-Germain winning it again, which does feel there's a good chance
42:45of it happening, especially because of, like, what, like, doing three in a row has always
42:50been the gold standard historic feat.
42:53You know, very few teams have done it.
42:54The teams that have done it have been legendary.
42:56And, look, obviously this Paris Saint-Germain team have been the best in Europe.
43:00But also, that comes from so many kind of different conditions, so many variables, where just the
43:07kind of the economic structure of European football, you know, as well as kind of the
43:11whole discussion about the Qatari ownership, they've got so many advantages from that.
43:17And, like, that doesn't feel like it should be, it should result in something like this,
43:22it's a kind of an outcome as glorified as this.
43:27So, who are you predicting to win the Champions League, Miguel?
43:31In fact, if we had your semi-finalists in the midst of bracket chat, not to bring that
43:36to an end, who are your top four?
43:41Ooh, maybe Bayern finish top.
43:44Arsenal's list of fixtures is actually a bit more difficult this year.
43:47So, maybe Arsenal finish second.
43:49Paris Saint-Germain, as we know, we don't like it.
43:51I mean, this is the thing, they might finish 14th again, but I think they'll be in the
43:55semi-finals.
43:57Some of Barca, maybe I don't, Barca maybe don't finish top four in the group.
44:01I do think they'll get to the semis.
44:03And for everything I've said there, I do just have a bit of, a bit of an inkling that
44:10Barca are going to win it this year.
44:11Although, it is possibly, that is just my kind of almost, you know, subconscious resistance
44:16to the idea of, basically just kind of differing to the predictability of Paris Saint-Germain
44:21winning it again.
44:23Okay.
44:24Rich, predicted winner?
44:26Well, if Miggs is going for Barcelona, I'll go for PSG.
44:29I think they are the most likely.
44:30Yeah, yeah, yeah.
44:31To be honest.
44:33I mean, I was going to go for Barcelona to be different, but on the other hand, yeah,
44:37I'll go PSG.
44:38Well, I'll put my, I'll go for Bayern Munich.
44:40I genuinely think Bayern Munich will win the Champions League this year.
44:43I think, I saw a quote from Harry Kane saying that they really, really want to win it and
44:48that, you know, that means a lot.
44:51Just, you know, the box standard Champions League tweet saying this player wants to win
44:58the trophy.
44:58Yeah, yeah.
44:58But.
44:59The old kind of Champions League weekly.
45:02Yeah.
45:02I like scoring goals.
45:04I like, yeah, exactly.
45:06Manager, keen for victory.
45:07But I do think.
45:09It is a dream.
45:10Yeah.
45:11But I do think there's a kind of sense of, maybe destiny is a bit of a strong word, but
45:15a sense of sort of the timing, getting to the semi-finals last year, that motivation
45:19to go that step further.
45:21Kane, sort of the form he's in and what they achieved last season.
45:24Obviously winning the German Cup in the league, that maybe that's that.
45:28Kind of next step.
45:29A bit like Arsenal, I suppose.
45:30They're both feeling like that's the next thing to do, isn't it?
45:33And Bayern, as we've discussed all podcast, will not be so distracted probably from, by
45:38domestic duties so they can throw themselves at it.
45:41So yeah, I'm going for Bayern.
45:42If we are in a situation where Arsenal get a good lead in the Premier League, and look,
45:48that is very dependent on what City are, which is still quite unknown right now, then
45:53I think the equation changes a little bit, maybe.
45:56Especially because I think if that is the case, Arsenal's season will become so geared
46:00about becoming European champions.
46:03But yeah, so I think it could be quite an interesting one between those four.
46:09They've all got quite strong cases.
46:10You're writing off Hull for a Premier League challenge at this point?
46:15Lamentably, yes.
46:16Lamentably.
46:16Yeah.
46:17Pity.
46:17Very good.
46:18I was going to make a mauled by the Tigers reference.
46:21Oh, lovely.
46:22Maybe my prediction will be mauled by the Tigers.
46:24What do you make of Hull's sort of celebration where the fans do this thing when they score
46:29a goal?
46:30It's a bit Batman 1960s.
46:34Yeah, I'm not sure about it, but each of them, why not?
46:37You enjoy yourselves.
46:39Adam West and Robin.
46:42What?
46:43Sorry.
46:45That was like, they had a very similar dance in the show.
46:49Right.
46:52Hopefully, we've got quite different reference points at this stage.
46:54Okay, we'll leave it there.
46:55Good to speak to you both.
46:57The Champions League gets going tonight and Tuesday, and we will follow it with interest.
47:02I'm sure we will catch up in a few weeks' time to discuss more.
47:05This has been a production of the Independent Podcast Network, and we will be back next time.
47:11Thank you very much for listening.
47:12Bye-bye.
47:13Bye-bye.
47:15Bye-bye.
47:16Bye-bye.
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