00:00doesn't mean that there aren't a whole lot of angles and a whole lot of prop bets here, Tom,
00:05to kind of tackle with this game here tonight. I think you and I are in agreement. We think
00:10under might not be a bad look. I like it in the first half. I like it in the full
00:15game.
00:15And that just coincides to me. We got to find some spots to look to fade to the under,
00:22whether it's receiving, passing, rushing. What are you thinking as far as maybe less,
00:28not more here? In what category? So to be clear, I am playing the first half under 22.5. It's
00:36a
00:36little bit juiced at minus 130. Like we were talking about yesterday, the line has moved a
00:41little bit. I will pay that minus 130. We've got a little bit of safety. You know, A, you mentioned
00:46it before, the 21.5. If you get the 21.5, I think that's still pretty solid. Covering the three
00:51touchdowns is good. 22.5 means we have to get to 24, which means three touchdowns on a field goal
00:57or four touchdowns. Just don't see that. So I have two plays for some prop bets. One,
01:03I'm going to be looking at George Helani, who is the backup running back for Seattle. Now,
01:07there's been some differing reports. One depth chart had him listed as RB2. The other has listed
01:13him as RB3. But I'm taking him under 35.5 rushing plus receiving. That's also at minus 130. I got
01:20that
01:20over at Fanatics earlier in the day. I think Jadarian Price is good. But the Seattle Seahawks
01:25are going to use some type of backfield by committed. They also have Emmanuel Wilson,
01:30who they brought in because Zach Charbonne is not ready to go. So we will see Helani play. I just
01:35don't think it's going to be too much. So under 35.5 rushing plus receiving. That's where I'm looking
01:39for Helani. Yeah, don't hate that at all here. And I keep going back and forth with the first
01:47touchdown. Seattle was 75% last year in their games of scoring a touchdown first. But you know,
01:57no Kenneth Walker here. No, you know, we know that Charbonne is not playing. So not there.
02:04Romandre Stevenson is the chalk. I kind of like this Jadarian Prince. And can we all be realistic
02:11here? Wouldn't it just be something if A.J. Brown is the one that ends up scoring the first
02:17touchdown of the game? Do you see any value here? Not any time touchdown, but first touchdown of the
02:22game here. First touchdown. And a lot of people want to look to A.J. Barner, you know, good red
02:29zone
02:29option for the Seahawks when it's all said and done. He's never going to have an overall
02:34target share as high as someone like JSN or even a red zone touch share, such as Jaren Price or
02:42what
02:42we expect it to be. But A.J. Barner has been a red zone target for Sam Darnold, obviously,
02:46in the one sample that we saw, one sample size of last year that we saw. So I don't mind
02:50looking
02:51there. I know some people want to mix in a little bit of Hunter Henry, but I'll be honest, I
02:54very rarely
02:55if ever play the first touchdown market. I really only played if, you know, Sportsbook got some type of
03:01promo or boost going on, but that's not a market I'm into anymore.
03:07No, it's I got to tell you. Well, let me ask you this. Pass or rush?
03:12Pass. I'll take a pass, especially given the options that we have of the, you know,
03:18reigning offense player of the year with JSN, good end zone targets like a Hunter Henry or A.J.
03:22Barner or the patch just saying, hey, like, we know we have you, Ramondre, but like, let's get the
03:27ball to the guy we just trade for an A.J. Brown. So I think there are narratives if I
03:30wanted to
03:31push one out there about a pass rather than a rush. Yeah, I think too. And listen, I mean,
03:37Sam Darnold, I don't think he's throwing 40 times here tonight. I don't think they're going to want
03:43him to drop back and throw 40 times here. So I could see, you know, the number that I keep,
03:50I keep being reminded of, Tom, is 20 interceptions, 20 turnovers by Sam Darnold a year ago.
03:56Hmm. Is there an IOT? Is there a, is there an IOT in the future of Sam Darnold here tonight?
04:04Um, that's a good question. I, you know, ultimately I lean no, just because I just don't think they're
04:11going to throw it that high of a volume. And, you know, I always like to look for correlation in
04:16the prop market when a, when a player has a super high pass attempt prop, which is my favorite prop
04:22in the NFL with past attempts, you know, then we can look for interception just because it's
04:26highly correlated. He's been dropping back and throwing a ton. So he's just at risk more,
04:30but I'm going to go with no one, Sam Darnold, or I should say, I'm not betting it. I don't
04:35like
04:35the odds on it. If I got plus money on it, I could talk myself into it knowing that, but
04:39if I have to
04:39lay the minus one 14 for an interception, I wouldn't be looking at it because I don't think
04:43the numbers good.
