00:00But I do think there's going to be some regression from Drake May and from that offense here.
00:05Having said that, are they an 11-win team?
00:09Are they a 10-win team?
00:10What do you think the Patriots are this year?
00:14I think it's 10, and it's not going to be easy.
00:21Now, the question really comes down to a couple things.
00:25Can they get four wins against the Jets and the Dolphins?
00:30Can they split the series?
00:31That's one.
00:32Can they split the series versus the Bills?
00:35And then, you know, obviously how do they fare in the other ones?
00:38Because they don't have to play amazing football if they already have like five-ish wins right there.
00:42So that's what I'm really looking at overall.
00:44I would say 10 is really where I'm taking them to be.
00:48I will say I was looking at division futures, exact finishing order, Bills, Pats in that order.
00:54It's minus 130, so I don't like the price, but I think that's where they end up.
00:57They'll make the playoffs, but they'll be the two seed this year.
00:59They won't win the division title.
01:03I don't think, I mean, obviously Buffalo, right, is who we're looking at winning the AFC East, obviously.
01:11We know the Jets and Miami won't be involved in it there.
01:14But how about Seattle?
01:16Much more competitive division outside of Arizona, which is laughably bad already with their number three pick in the draft.
01:25Supposed to be the game-changing running back is now the backup running back, RB2.
01:30It was announced here for Arizona.
01:33I mean, okay.
01:36I guess I get a little immature coming out of Notre Dame.
01:40I didn't see that one coming there, Tom.
01:42But it doesn't mean that they're going to win a whole lot of games this year either.
01:46But the Seattle, do they have enough to beat the Rams, beat the 49ers?
01:51Are they your West champions again?
01:54I don't think so.
01:55I think they'll make the playoffs.
01:56But the Rams, and maybe this is just overvaluing the Rams too much, but what they have, I think, stacks
02:04up just as well as Seattle.
02:07And, you know, Seattle is certainly in a spot where we can reasonably say that they are due for regression.
02:14Their defense last year, if I remember correctly, was the eighth best defense DVOA of all time.
02:21Not just last year.
02:21They were one of the best DVOA defenses ever.
02:24So that's going to regress.
02:25Now, if they have a season this year where they're 15th, like, oh, that's still amazing, but still regressing.
02:30So I am buying into a little bit of aggression on Seattle.
02:33They'll be in the playoffs.
02:34And ultimately, if they are on the road, you know, that could be one of the detriments that is their
02:38undoing because that home field advantage is so, so good for them, especially late season.
