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00:00I'm tempted to ask how much the papers in London this morning are dealing with what
00:03President Trump said yesterday in Ireland about the prospects of Irish unification,
00:08but let me take a broader vantage on sort of this trip.
00:10You have President Trump going to Dallas, all of this, all of these festivities that
00:15took place there, thinking that that might mount to some momentum here going to the midterms,
00:18and then he hops on a plane, goes to Ireland to play some golf and meet with the leaders
00:22of that country.
00:23What do you make of that and what does it say about the purpose of this convention that
00:26just wrapped up to you?
00:28And suggested reunification of Ireland while he was here, which has been a, needless to
00:34say, a decades-long hot-button issue that he just stepped into the middle of without,
00:39I think, a lot of thought.
00:42Let's talk about his appearance at the convention.
00:46I don't think, actually, most Republicans wanted him there because he's polling so low.
00:52The issues that they're going to have to campaign against are issues that he's set in most
00:57motion through a series of cell phones, David.
01:00First, the tariffs, and now, obviously, the war in Iran have all been inflationary actions
01:05that were within his powers to avoid.
01:08And average Americans are now struggling with escalating electricity bills, escalating food
01:14prices, gas prices, and an uncertainty about the job outlook.
01:19And inflation doesn't appear to be abating.
01:22In fact, it appears to be worsening.
01:24All of these things are not great campaign issues.
01:27And I think he made the convention about himself.
01:30And I also don't think that's what the party was looking for.
01:34And I think it's a barometer of the extent to which, I think, Trump continues to be in
01:41this for himself rather than for the party or rather than for constructive solutions to
01:47the problems the country and average voters are facing.
01:52You know, I actually think the convention was a successful coming out party for J.D.
01:57Vance.
01:58But Trump eclipsed even that to a certain measure.
02:01Julie, I want to ask you about some of those problems that I know some of the staff behind
02:05the scenes would really like the president to focus on.
02:07We have an affordability crisis in this country.
02:09It's something voters say over and over again.
02:11They're thinking about as they go to vote in these midterms.
02:13And I know one of the things driving up costs, of course, are something Tim just mentioned,
02:17energy prices.
02:18And you spoke to former Texas Attorney General now-turned-candidate Ken Paxton about data
02:23centers.
02:24We're going to play some of that sound.
02:25So I think it's a good idea to slow this down so that we can listen to our constituents.
02:31I mean, obviously, we have to compete against China.
02:33If we don't have data centers, we're in trouble.
02:35We're going to be in trouble with China.
02:38So there's no doubt we have to figure out how to do it, but we have to listen to our
02:41constituents
02:42and figure out where do we do these and how do we protect the people in that area from
02:45any negative consequences.
02:47So AI and data centers in particular have really become a political issue over even just
02:52like the last couple of weeks.
02:53What do people in Texas tell you about this issue?
02:55And then what did you hear about this at the convention throughout the week?
02:59Well, first of all, it's very interesting.
03:01Ken Paxton coming out and saying, hey, we've got to tap the brakes on this.
03:04This is what we're hearing from Governor Abbott as well.
03:07Governor Abbott, who was all about the data centers, bringing them in.
03:10But now he, too, is saying that there needs to be certain parameters when data centers
03:15come somewhere, when it comes to water and when it comes to power.
03:18There's definitely a not in my backyard issue here because we have so many data centers in
03:23the state of Texas.
03:24But at the end of the day, what these voters are going to have to figure out is, is this
03:29their top issue?
03:30Is their top issue what they view as lower taxes?
03:33Is their top issue what they view as health?
03:35So it'll be interesting to see how big of a data center issue this becomes when people
03:41actually walk in to vote.
03:43Tim O'Brien, in the American Airlines Center, you have President Trump on stage and almost
03:48off the cuff floats this idea of a Trump dividend.
03:51Not the first time he's suggested he might send a check to all Americans.
03:55I was struck in the wake of that, how members of his administration not only defended that
04:00as a real policy proposal, but kind of contorted themselves to explain how it might happen.
04:04You had Howard Lutnick saying this wouldn't be paid for by taxpayers.
04:07You had Kevin Hassett come on Bloomberg TV and talk about the mechanics of offering this
04:11$5,000 check to American adult citizens.
04:15What does that tell you about the way that the president is looking at this affordability
04:18crisis?
04:20Well, I think it suggests that members of his administration are simply worried about
04:25losing their jobs, David.
04:26And so they don't dare deviate from something that he put out so publicly and prominently.
04:33I don't think any of them believes in their hearts it's going to work.
04:37It won't get past the Congress.
04:40It would cost more than about $1.3 trillion to carry out.
04:45There's far better uses of that money than simply giving every American a $5,000 check.
04:50And I also don't think that most Americans would feel like a $5,000 freebie, as welcome
04:57as it might be, is going to set them up for a more prosperous or affordable future in which
05:02they feel authentically independent financially and in control of their families' futures financially.
05:09So it's a stunt.
05:10I think he's been involved in a lot of stunts lately of various proportions that are sort
05:16of Hail Mary passes meant to deal with the affordability issue.
05:19The idea of, you know, flipping a light switch in Venezuela and suddenly the oil fields there
05:25will begin producing more oil and that will somehow ameliorate the oil production problem
05:31caused by the Strait of Hormuz being closed is all of a fit with this.
05:39The President has repeatedly said Americans should just get over their affordability concerns.
05:44But it's now costing him at the polls, so he's trying to do something at the last minute.
05:49Julie, I mean, it's trite at this point, but James Carvel, it's the economy stupid.
05:53When you look at what people say is the most important problem, 22% say the most important
06:00issue facing the U.S. is the economy, followed by democracy, followed by corruption, violence,
06:04and war is down at 5%.
06:06We talked so much about the unpopularity of this war in Iran.
06:09A lot of us were wondering how the President was going to spin that cow shit at this forum,
06:15Trumpapalooza, during the week.
06:16Did they focus on that at all?
06:18What were the big top lines and what do you think landed best, if anything, with voters
06:22or people who were in the room?
06:25I will say that the war was talked about, but not much.
06:28It was not a huge topic, just that it was the right thing to do and that it's eventually
06:32going to end.
06:34I think the one that landed the most in the room was the $5,000, because at that moment
06:40people aren't thinking, how will this affect the deficit?
06:43How are we going to pay for it?
06:44And there's no discussion there on, oh, but we'll have to get this through Congress first.
06:48So I think in terms of the room, that's what landed.
06:51But you have to remember, this is a room of ardent supporters.
06:54This isn't a room of people that are undecided voters in many senses.
06:58So most of this landed in the room just fine.
07:01It's a question of what landed later.
07:04But when you talk about what landed in the room, it's in the room.
07:07This is on a night where you've got NFL football.
07:10You've got a lot of other things going on.
07:12So a lot of people like you and I both know, look to this and they'll see this in the
07:17social media.
07:17They'll see this in the clips later.
07:19But in the room, it basically landed as the, oh, we're getting $5,000 back.
07:23Tim, I want to play a bit of sound here from Jeff Curry, formerly Goldman Sachs,
07:26now at Real Macro, big energy expert.
07:29When he talks, a lot of people listen.
07:30And he was asked on our air just about the prospects of gas prices continuing to rise
07:34during a week when we saw them really hit precipitous new heights, diesel prices as well.
07:39Let's take a listen to what Jeff Curry had to say.
07:41We hit $5 a gallon of gasoline before the midterms.
07:44I think it's an extremely high probability on that happening.
07:48You know, at this point right now, it's pretty clear across the board we're out of this.
07:51You know, pretty much all the commodities.
07:54And what will happen is you'll see the refineries go, oh, we've got to make diesel,
07:58create shortages in gasoline.
07:59Oh, we've got a gasoline shortage, try to swing back.
08:02Eventually, they just run out of the optionality.
08:04Tim O'Brien, Jeff Curry talking about just kind of the problem of compensating for these prices.
08:07You see the administration kind of trying to figure out if there's a policy path they can go down to
08:11get these prices lower.
08:13And all the while, the president is saying, look, after the election, they're going to go back down to $2
08:17a gallon,
08:18which I should say no bona fide expert is saying in kind.
08:22I know it's a problem for Republicans.
08:24I know it's a problem for this president.
08:26But what options does he have, if any, to kind of try to bring some relief when it comes to
08:30energy prices to American consumers?
08:32I don't think there's anything in the near term.
08:35Everything that needs to be addressed, David, is structural and long term.
08:38The war in Iran needs to end.
08:41I think the tariff regime needs to get rationalized way beyond what it's,
08:45it's obviously been irrational in many aspects.
08:48Those aren't things that are going to get fixed, I think, before the elections.
08:52The other thing about gas prices is it's one of those things, you know,
08:56people see grocery prices when they go to the store, obviously.
08:59Electricity bills when their bill lands in their home.
09:02But gas prices are a marquee inflation indicator because everyone drives around the streets and highways all the time
09:09and they see gas prices broadcast up on these big glowing signs
09:14and they just see them going up and up and they're not going to come down before the midterms.
09:18This is a huge liability for the GOP.
09:21Julie, I want to know if you think that that explains the recent bump we've seen in the Tallarico versus
09:27Paxton race.
09:28He's up slightly.
09:29It looks like it's still in the margin of error.
09:31Can you update us on where those two candidates are, how they're going and if one has the momentum or
09:35not?
09:37I think there is no momentum essentially in this race, but certainly Tallarico seems to have a slight edge right
09:43now.
09:43James Tallarico, of course, is talking about gas prices.
09:46He's talking about affordability.
09:48So he has that working to his advantage.
09:51What he's had to do and he's done very successfully is raise his name recognition because Attorney General Ken Paxton
09:57has been here for some time.
10:00What he's been doing, though, is also taking a lot of time to talk about Attorney General Ken Paxton's past.
10:05He had some legal problems.
10:06He was impeached by members of his own party.
10:09However, he was acquitted in the Senate.
10:11However, voters in Texas have known about Ken Paxton for a long time and they continue to reelect them.
10:18So reelect him.
10:19So it'll be interesting to see how this plays moving forward.
10:23But Ken Paxton certainly is out there when he is campaigning, trying to talk about affordability and gas prices.
10:30But it's James Tallarico who's holding many more rallies and doing many more interviews and making himself forward much more.
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