00:07My guest today is the Latvian Prime Minister Andres Kulbergs.
00:12His country is a staunch supporter of Ukraine and understands the Russian threat like no other.
00:19Hello, Prime Minister. Thank you so much for taking the time to talk to us in Riga Castle.
00:22Yeah.
00:23Yeah. Latvia has been impacted by a slew of Russian provocations as well as hybrid threats.
00:30Do you expect something more forceful from Russia in the future? And if so, when?
00:36Well, I think you always have to expect. I think the one who prepares for the worst has peace.
00:42And that's how you have to be. There cannot be any weakest link.
00:46We all have to remain strong. We all have to be united in this.
00:50So, I've just came back from Kiev and met Zelensky and the new Prime Minister there.
00:57And I can tell you that Russia is burning more men on the battlefield than they can recruit.
01:06There is no advancement. It's just what miserable square kilometers and there's no advancement.
01:13So, the resources they put in, there is no output. There is no political win. There is no war win.
01:19So, it's very difficult, I think, for them to have a story, for Putin to have a story back home.
01:25Of course, it's not easy for Ukraine. But, because of that, there can be an escalation or expectation, and we're
01:32preparing for that, of any potential hybrid threat or cyber threat, which Russia is very good at.
01:39I mean, that is something what Putin might present as a win or disrupt Europe, disrupt NATO.
01:46But I don't see today a potential capability of Russia having a second front line.
01:54Well, you should learn from the past. Well, that's not a good idea.
01:58But how do you stay on the front foot when it comes to hybrid warfare?
02:02Russia has become increasingly more creative when it tests the EU as well as NATO borders, weaponized migration, the drones,
02:10cable cuts.
02:11Russia is good at this hybrid things or manipulations, and we are a democratic society, and we play by the
02:19rules.
02:20The bully does not play by the rules, and it expects that we play by the rules.
02:24Well, that I mean that we already have, since 2021, a big hybrid threat.
02:30They are attacking our border, pushing through migrants.
02:34That is instrumented and done by Russia, and Belarus is acting as a partner in this, in the crime.
02:41We are putting resources behind that, tripling the resources what we used to have before, in order to deter any
02:49illegal immigration, which is a hybrid threat.
02:52And that is a threat to Europe's outside borders, so we're keeping that out.
02:57That's what we see.
02:59We also see where you just mentioned what new has come up.
03:02Well, yes, AI.
03:04AI is helping cyber threats to become a much more frequent and much easier thing to execute.
03:11Attacks have multiplied versus what we used to have on our critical infrastructure companies and critical infrastructure institutions.
03:21Do you think that NATO allies, as well as EU member states, are not coming out stronger when it comes
03:25to Russia?
03:26Because these hybrid incidents show no signs of abating.
03:29I don't think Russia really is listening.
03:32Do you remember in school time, do you see a bully whom you say, you're doing wrong, that's not right?
03:39Does the bully react and always say, oh, no, I'm not going to do it again?
03:43No.
03:43Bully understands force.
03:45That's what we have to show.
03:46Real force, boots on the ground, investment in our security, showing our muscles.
03:53How much?
03:54How much investment would you like to see put into Latvian's businesses?
03:57We're doing 6.4%.
04:00We're doing most.
04:02We put all in defense.
04:03And that is not enough for EU's outside border.
04:06Yes, for Latvia, it's crazy money.
04:08That's 2 billion euros we borrow.
04:10We put state money.
04:11We borrow Latvia and make our Latvia debt bigger to invest in security because we understand what that means.
04:20We understand we have no choice.
04:22In order to keep Europe safe, we have to invest.
04:25We have to keep the borders secure.
04:27And we have to learn from Ukraine.
04:29Take the best example.
04:30They know how, with least resources, achieve the best results for deterring, putting in air security on drones and anti
04:39-drone systems.
04:39That's why we signed the agreement with Ukraine.
04:42But Europe has to do the same.
04:45We need more in order for Europe to be secure.
04:48We have to put production up.
04:50We have to put military industry on the front line.
04:53We have to keep our economy higher.
04:55That is exactly why I have publicly announced that we are suffering by, it's clear analysis,
05:04We're suffering 1.8 percentage points decrease of our GDP because of being towards an aggressor.
05:12Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are often referred to as chihuahuas.
05:16The inference here is the bark is more powerful than the bite.
05:19What do you make of that assessment?
05:21We were right, weren't we?
05:24Weren't we?
05:25We told everyone this is going to happen.
05:28We know in and out what the bear eats, what it thinks, how it functions.
05:34We knew.
05:35We've been 50 years occupied.
05:37We know the tricks.
05:39We know that bully is always showing the muscle and there's only one way.
05:43By force, you can only deter it.
05:45And so everybody now listens.
05:48I feel by meeting the leaders, they understand what we're saying.
05:53It didn't used to be like that two years, even two years ago.
05:56But does that phrase not make you feel like some EU member states don't support the Baltics
06:01when it comes to Russian aggression and particularly the rhetoric coming out of the Baltics?
06:05I think everybody understands very well.
06:07The commitment is not there behind because the politicians understand the societies are still
06:13behind of understanding the threat.
06:16Leipzig incident is a good example.
06:19The society is not backing up yet the politicians who understand what it means.
06:23So it takes time and it takes, unfortunately, things to happen, to shake up, to understand
06:30that Europe cannot live in an ideal world that World War II was somewhere in the past.
06:38We see, unfortunately, things we don't learn from the history.
06:42Certainly accelerating.
06:44Let's talk about local politics in Latvia.
06:47Latvian citizens are going to head to the polls very soon, October the 3rd, if I'm correct,
06:51for a general election.
06:53We also saw a regional election in Germany, which resulted in the far-right Alternative for
06:58Germany party, a pro-Russian party doing extremely well.
07:03How do you plan on avoiding this at the ballot box when the election occurs in Latvia?
07:08Simple.
07:09People, societies, are fed up with political blah, blah, blah.
07:16People need straight language.
07:18They need to hear the truth.
07:21They need to hear the certainty.
07:23They explain things simply, not cover up uncomfortable news.
07:30People understand.
07:32People will understand much better.
07:34And that's a problem.
07:35The connection is lost between politicians and the society.
07:39And the populistic parties not only are growing.
07:45Why?
07:47Because previously the social media, they can explain things more clearly with statements.
07:54Statements.
07:55Making statements.
07:56That's easy on social media.
07:57But doesn't that mean that the centre is failing, though, if more people are turning to the right
08:02or, in some places, the far left?
08:04I think it's because the policies we've been...
08:08Europe has not made great policies if we compare where we are now.
08:13Energy sector, as an example.
08:15Industries have been outsourced way too much outside to China, I mean, as an example.
08:21We should have a strong economy.
08:23That's what I'm saying.
08:23People, when the economy is weak and we need to invest with a weak economy into defence,
08:30that's not a good, great position to be at.
08:32The Ukrainian president, Vladimir Zelensky, has come out and said that he needs an extra
08:3623 billion euros to prop up his budget to address a funding gap.
08:40How far does Latvia's financial support for Ukraine go?
08:44Is it bottomless or does it end at some point?
08:48You touched on a very important subject.
08:51Do you know why it's gone up?
08:53Military as well?
08:55In Ukraine.
08:56Why it needs more?
08:57Why it's spent more?
08:59Because of defence needs?
09:00No.
09:00This is my understanding.
09:01Because we have not made up our mind.
09:03There's still...
09:05Ukraine is attacked by ballistic missiles.
09:09And the missiles are being produced in Russia way more than before.
09:13What does it have inside?
09:15Western components.
09:17We're still supplying Russia in order for them to build missiles to attack Ukraine.
09:23And then we're helping Ukraine with more money in order to fight back.
09:28Maybe in the first time, first place, we should stop or put a full ban of those Western technological
09:37components be in the missile.
09:38Russia will not be capable of building it.
09:40Is that something that you would suggest?
09:42I was very open with that.
09:43I was very open on the meetings.
09:45I say, what is the purpose of sanctions?
09:48Let's put...
09:49Do we want Ukraine to prevail, to win?
09:52We want to stop the war?
09:53Or we just want to put sanctions just because they sound well?
09:57No.
09:58We have to put the sanctions in and really execute them.
10:01And obviously that wasn't executed.
10:03There shouldn't be cutting corners.
10:04We shouldn't have made exclusions.
10:07But what was the EU member states, what was their defense for this to not be implemented?
10:12Because there are still interests, because societies are still not understanding the reality of the threat.
10:19We should prepare for the worst.
10:21And that's how you have peace.
10:23And let's turn to another election.
10:25I don't know if many people will refer to it as an election, but the Duma elections.
10:29Are you hopeful for a democratic breakthrough in Russia?
10:33Or is this going to be another rigged contest?
10:35Well, that's a pure example when societies or people don't pay attention to what's happening.
10:41When they say, politics is not for me.
10:43I'm not voting.
10:44No.
10:45You have to be involved.
10:46And you cannot miss the moment when it goes sour.
10:49Now, there is no way for democratic society to be back in Russia.
10:54You don't think so?
10:55No.
10:55You don't think that they could ever...
10:57No.
10:57I've worked with Russia 13 years.
10:59I know how it happened.
11:03Society lost the moment.
11:05It's way too far.
11:07It's way too far.
11:08It only can be brought down from the inside of Putin's circle only.
11:13You don't think that this could change certainly perhaps in a generation or if he were to pass
11:18away and a new leader were to come into power?
11:20The system is in a place.
11:22We let it happen.
11:24We should have won.
11:25We should have stopped the war in the first year, second year, but not now.
11:29Now the society has already been zombied to the level.
11:32And it's been put in a corner.
11:35There's no way out.
11:37So I think those are elections.
11:41The percentage number will be drawn.
11:44It's always a betting.
11:46What is it going to be this year?
11:48Are you going to bet?
11:50It's going to be in the 90s.
11:53Okay.
11:53Thank you so much for taking the time to talk to us, Prime Minister.
11:55Thank you.
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