00:00Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Metals and Mining Commodities Strategist. Amy, I'd like to take
00:04that question to you too. What we're seeing in copper, the demand because of AI, how different
00:09is this cycle this time? Yeah, absolutely. This is the key emerging theme, I think, for copper
00:16when we think about what's going to be that next demand driver. So if we think back to
00:20sort of the 2000s and the 2010s, you know, it was really all about China building out
00:25its property, its infrastructure, and then also sort of all that appliance demand that
00:30comes alongside it. If we think about the next 10, 15 years, we see that Chinese demand
00:35sort of stabilizing a little bit more. So property slowing down, sort of, I guess, also slowdowns
00:41in many of those appliances, vehicles, etc. So what's going to be that driver? It's all
00:46going to be around AI and then building out those grids. Now, at the moment, we think
00:50particularly copper demand in data centers is still quite a small share of total demand.
00:54So about just over 2% for this year, but it's driving about one third of our demand growth
00:59estimate. And so that's where it becomes important. That marginal ton is coming from arguably quite
01:04a price insensitive buyer. And then also that spillover effect to faster grid investment,
01:10where arguably there probably hasn't been enough over the last 10, 20 years, and that all needs
01:15to catch up. Well, so if you have LME copper right now flirting with $15,000, Amy, how much of
01:21that is in the price right now, that future that you're talking about?
01:26So I'd say there's quite a lot of things going on with the copper price at the moment. And I
01:30think,
01:30you know, it would be, we have to mention, of course, what's happening with US tariffs and
01:35the threat of those and the impact that has had on the price. So I would say, you know,
01:40definitely the AI story is already somewhat embedded in the copper price. We do see quite a
01:44strong correlation between copper and many of the sort of AI enabling equities. But I think also,
01:51copper is being held up by the fact that we've had this enormous US stockpiling effort this year,
01:57which has been driven by the threat of tariffs. We think that is equivalent to about two and a half
02:02to 3% of demand. So I just said data centers are about 2% of demand. So it's almost
02:08bigger than
02:08data centers. And that we think is a big part of copper's recent price strength. So that does mean
02:13whatever decision is made around the tariffs is very, very important to copper's next steps from here,
02:19particularly on a 12-month view. I think this AI story will play out over multiple years. But I
02:23think for the near term, that copper tariff decision remains the most important catalyst.
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